Golden Technology Portfolio

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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modeljc
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Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat May 23, 2020 3:11 pm

What would the forum think about:

20% QQQ

20% SPY

20% TLT

20% SHY

20% Gold

Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.
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Mark Leavy
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat May 23, 2020 3:25 pm

modeljc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:11 pm
What would the forum think about:

20% QQQ

20% SPY

20% TLT

20% SHY

20% Gold

Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.
That's pretty solid. With that much equity, I would up the bonds a bit and drop the gold slightly. Overall, it should do well, regardless.
Full disclosure, I'm currently overweighted in the Nasdaq 100 as I think we're in an era where tech will outperform other equities.

Safety not guaranteed.
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by pmward » Sat May 23, 2020 3:29 pm

It's basically a golden butterfly just with QQQ instead of SCV. My initial thought is that the correlation between QQQ and SPY is so high that I would probably choose one or the other at a full 40% as you're not really gaining as much diversity as you think by going halfsies. QQQ is a bit more volatile, so it will generally lead SPY in times of prosperity and lag in recessions, of course this current recession had QQQ actually act both more defensive and offensive than SPY, which I find really interesting. Large cap growth seems to do really well in times of low interest rates and deflationary pressure, which has been the prevalent environment for 12 years now, and using Japan as the example (being that we are following their footsteps) it is likely going to stay the prevalent environment for quite awhile longer. I currently have 100% QQQ as the stock portion in my PP.
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Tyler
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by Tyler » Sat May 23, 2020 4:08 pm

modeljc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:11 pm
Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.
QQQ has about 60% overlap by market weight with VUG (large cap growth). So while it's not perfect, you might try using LCG as a substitute for QQQ in the Portfolio Charts tools.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
modeljc
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat May 23, 2020 4:17 pm

pmward wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:29 pm
It's basically a golden butterfly just with QQQ instead of SCV. My initial thought is that the correlation between QQQ and SPY is so high that I would probably choose one or the other at a full 40% as you're not really gaining as much diversity as you think by going halfsies. QQQ is a bit more volatile, so it will generally lead SPY in times of prosperity and lag in recessions, of course this current recession had QQQ actually act both more defensive and offensive than SPY, which I find really interesting. Large cap growth seems to do really well in times of low interest rates and deflationary pressure, which has been the prevalent environment for 12 years now, and using Japan as the example (being that we are following their footsteps) it is likely going to stay the prevalent environment for quite awhile longer. I currently have 100% QQQ as the stock portion in my PP.
Yes QQQ for 25% stock allocation does nice things. It about equal to the Golden Tech but the rebalance is going to win the day.
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat May 23, 2020 4:41 pm

Tyler wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 4:08 pm
modeljc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:11 pm
Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.
QQQ has about 60% overlap by market weight with VUG (large cap growth). So while it's not perfect, you might try using LCG as a substitute for QQQ in the Portfolio Charts tools.
Thanks! VUG is interesting. Never looked at that being close to QQQ. Picks up about +2.0% over SPY
modeljc
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat May 23, 2020 6:24 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:25 pm
modeljc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:11 pm
What would the forum think about:

20% QQQ

20% SPY

20% TLT

20% SHY

20% Gold

Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.
That's pretty solid. With that much equity, I would up the bonds a bit and drop the gold slightly. Overall, it should do well, regardless.
Full disclosure, I'm currently overweighted in the Nasdaq 100 as I think we're in an era where tech will outperform other equities.

Safety not guaranteed.
Thanks! What is you weight for Nasdaq 100. Market is also thinking you are right on tech
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Mark Leavy
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat May 23, 2020 6:53 pm

modeljc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:24 pm
Thanks! What is you weight for Nasdaq 100. Market is also thinking you are right on tech
I'm at 15% TQQQ counterbalanced with 15% TMF. (3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 and 3x leveraged long treasuries) The rest split between gold and cash while we see where this roller coaster goes. Who knows?

Basically a leveraged PP - using Nasdaq 100 for equities. 70% in cash and gold in case it all goes to hell.
modeljc
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sat May 23, 2020 10:03 pm

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:53 pm
modeljc wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:24 pm
Thanks! What is you weight for Nasdaq 100. Market is also thinking you are right on tech
I'm at 15% TQQQ counterbalanced with 15% TMF. (3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 and 3x leveraged long treasuries) The rest split between gold and cash while we see where this roller coaster goes. Who knows?

Basically a leveraged PP - using Nasdaq 100 for equities. 70% in cash and gold in case it all goes to hell.
WOW! Some handsome returns! Even if you save only save 75% you still win.
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by WhiteElephant » Sun May 24, 2020 12:06 am

It's been so long since people were suggesting to actively over-weight tech stocks.

The problem with tech is: everybody is expecting tech stocks to do very well. So in order to get a better return than the general market, tech has to do even better than expected. If you really want large tech/growth stocks, I would pick a Large Cap Growth fund, as that's something that Harry Browne actually advocated for quite a while for the PP.
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by modeljc » Sun May 24, 2020 11:55 am

WhiteElephant wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 12:06 am
It's been so long since people were suggesting to actively over-weight tech stocks.

The problem with tech is: everybody is expecting tech stocks to do very well. So in order to get a better return than the general market, tech has to do even better than expected. If you really want large tech/growth stocks, I would pick a Large Cap Growth fund, as that's something that Harry Browne actually advocated for quite a while for the PP.
Even with a 40% correction in tech stocks they are probaby overvalued. Low interest rates have all asset classes distorted. No one can see the future but i'm in the camp that a global debt collapse is probable. Just don't know when.
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Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Post by dualstow » Sun May 24, 2020 1:14 pm

I’ve been adding to VUG in my vp.
Solid portfolio, as Mark said.
”My option is to displace the mayor of New York City and bring in the National Guard -- as the governor, in a state of emergency -- and basically take over the mayor's job," Cuomo said. He quickly added that, "I don't think we are at that point,"
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