Gyroscopic Investing

If you’ve been running an HBPP* since February or earlier, is it meeting your expectations?
EDIT: or Golden Butterfly (GB) portfolio

[*]Yes
[*]No
[*]No, but I don’t see a better option

Passed with flying colours! .

EDIT: For reference here is the performance of the Goldsmith PP since the start of this year according to Portfolio Visualizer.

Nice! Or as Ricky from Trailer Park Boys says, “passed with flying f____ carpets!”

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 6:26 pm Nice! Or as Ricky from Trailer Park Boys says, “passed with flying f____ carpets!”

I discovered the PP back in 2016 or so, so this was my first market crash since adopting the portfolio. Now that I think about it, this is the first market crash I've experienced at all since I started investing (tail end of 2009).

My quasi-GBish portfolio is down 3% from my 2/21/2020 peak which Iooks like it is working to me...

Sometimes I even forget to check what's going on with my PP, its hovering around 4.5% YTD... VP is way more interesting those days (read 'as usual')

My GB-ish portfolio is down ~4% since peak in late Feb, so working just as intended, with added bonus of some losses harvested in March.
And working from home with very small kids it's really a godsent, I just have no energy left to care about what goes on in the market more than once a month when I'm lucky...

I've said this before but I never get tired of reiterating the point. The stability of the PP is more than about minimizing standard deviation. It's about maximizing quality of life.

I have no idea what the future brings and nobody else does either. Why not embrace uncertainty instead of embracing the BS crystal ball predictions of the talking heads on CNBC?

I go about my day to day financial life with no worries about the market and where it may or may not be headed.

PP67 wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 8:11 am My quasi-GBish portfolio is down 3% from my 2/21/2020 peak which Iooks like it is working to me...

anato wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 7:05 pm My GB-ish portfolio is down ~4% since peak in late Feb, so working just as intended, with added bonus of some losses harvested in March.
And working from home with very small kids it's really a godsent, I just have no energy left to care about what goes on in the market more than once a month when I'm lucky...

I should include the Golden Butterfly as it's really close. Unlike zero cash portfolios (ok short term bonds) or flirting with bitcoin, I think the Golden Butterfly is totally in the spirit of the HBPP. I'll edit the OP.

The GB does indeed fit within the spirit of Browne's philosophy and the overall PP strategy.

For some reason though I still prefer to think of the GB as a PP with a slice of SCV in a VP.

Wow, that was a weird sentence.

Nice chart, steve.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri May 15, 2020 10:16 pm The GB does indeed fit within the spirit of Browne's philosophy and the overall PP strategy.

For some reason though I still prefer to think of the GB as a PP with a slice of SCV in a VP.

Wow, that was a weird sentence.

Sounds like rap lyrics.

I really love how every vote on this poll is yes.

The Permanent Portfolio just works.

The best part is that my wife now thinks I'm brilliant because we made money when everyone was freaking out about the crashing economy

snedgar wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:03 pm The best part is that my wife now thinks I'm brilliant because we made money when everyone was freaking out about the crashing economy

Don't be afraid to give yourself credit. Given how unpopular the PP is I think it takes a different kind of intellect to fully adopt and deploy it.

It's doing what it does best!

It's not making money, but it's held its value. The Bogleheads portfolios haven't done too badly, but my 60/40 is down 10%. Considering that the PP includes all your cash needs (which the Bogleheads portfolio does not) that is pretty darn awesome.

It seriously increases my confidence that this is the portfolio to retire on...as long as you remember to keep it balanced. I am getting to see what a 100% stock portfolio with minimal cash looks like in this situation. The dividends and carryover losses from selling the duds do help a bit, but my mother's already had to rely on a margin loan once to cover a cash flow deficit. Not good, but it was better than selling stocks that have dropped in value.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:50 pm I think it takes a different kind of intellect to fully adopt and deploy it.

For me it was no intellect at all as I didn't have enough brain to figure something else. So, I was one of very few who listen to friends's advise about PP.
I'm totally thankful to him :-)

sophie wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:39 am It seriously increases my confidence that this is the portfolio to retire on...as long as you remember to keep it balanced. I am getting to see what a 100% stock portfolio with minimal cash looks like in this situation. The dividends and carryover losses from selling the duds do help a bit, but my mother's already had to rely on a margin loan once to cover a cash flow deficit. Not good, but it was better than selling stocks that have dropped in value.

No worries "down under".

Sophie, perhaps this link may be of use to your mother.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/2014 ... short.html

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 10:50 am
For me it was no intellect at all as I didn't have enough brain to figure something else. So, I was one of very few who listen to friends's advise about PP.
I'm totally thankful to him :-)

I also think you need to give yourself more credit.

I must say though, reading this comment about not having enough brains while also looking at your avatar is hilarious!

Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

pp4me wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

When you do look you'll probably be surprised that it's held up better than you think it has. Long bonds, gold, and the stock rebound since late March have all helped greatly.

pmward wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 5:14 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

When you do look you'll probably be surprised that it's held up better than you think it has. Long bonds, gold, and the stock rebound since late March have all helped greatly.

I have a little bit of VBR in my IRA so I can't help but notice it when I take a look. It's the only thing in the red nowadays - down 26% since I purchased it but that was only back in December so it doesn't have a very long track record. The rest is all LTT's, gold, and cash - all doing great.

The rest of the SCV to make up the 20% allocation is in our Roth IRA's because I thought it was a good bet for long term growth. Not looking good right now but like I said - "long term" so no point in even looking at those accounts.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 8:11 pm I must say though, reading this comment about not having enough brains while also looking at your avatar is hilarious!

All good PP is up about 4% (has never hit a rebalance point in 10 years), however my Global 50/50 VP is only down about 1.5 %.

I’m very slowly tidying up into a GB ish type allocation for the longer term...Unless I lose my nerve, 10 years without a loss, still loss averse .

pp4me wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 4:32 pm Yes, the PP is doing fine but the bet I made on the GB isn't looking so great. SCV is now the dog dragging the portfolio down. I don't even know how much because I don't want to look right now.

But I'm sticking with it because I think it will still turn out to be a good long term bet.

There's always a dog dragging the portfolio down - by definition. It was gold in 2013, for example. You have to look at it not as a dud asset to get rid of, but rather as a buying opportunity. And certainly not as a "bet". Betting is exactly what you don't want to be doing with your core investments.

The small cap losses make total sense because small businesses are being impacted much worse than large ones. I doubt very much that the small business model is dead though. It may take time, years maybe, but small business will come back. When that happens you'll realize that you bought a ton of SCV at fire sale prices. And that you sold gold and bonds at high prices in order to do it. What's not to like about that?