Gyroscopic Investing

This is about 45 miles from me. I'm going as soon as I can get an appointment!
http://theparisnews.com/free/article_dc ... be6d5.html

I wonder if they'd be willing to tell you the antibody test's accuracy. My understanding is that most antibody tests tried thus far have specificity issues. For example, they can sometimes misidentify common cold antibodies as Covid-19 antibodies.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:51 pm I wonder if they'd be willing to tell you the antibody test's accuracy. My understanding is that most antibody tests tried thus far have specificity issues. For example, they can sometimes misidentify common cold antibodies as Covid-19 antibodies.

https://www.connectradio.fm/2020/04/20/ ... orah-birx/

"Birx said.”I want to be very clear to the American people, none of our tests are 100% sensitive and specific. What do I mean by that? None of our tests that we use in medicine and diagnose 100% of the people who are positive, and correctly diagnose 100% of the people who are negative,” "

Antibody Tests For Coronavirus Can Miss The Mark

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-the-mark


I think that the answer to your question is: "No."

Vinny

Good point. I'll get the specs on the test.
It's $175 and they don't take any government insurance, so I'll have to pay cash.
I consider it a bargain if it really is accurate.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:03 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:51 pm I wonder if they'd be willing to tell you the antibody test's accuracy. My understanding is that most antibody tests tried thus far have specificity issues. For example, they can sometimes misidentify common cold antibodies as Covid-19 antibodies.

https://www.connectradio.fm/2020/04/20/ ... orah-birx/

"Birx said.”I want to be very clear to the American people, none of our tests are 100% sensitive and specific. What do I mean by that? None of our tests that we use in medicine and diagnose 100% of the people who are positive, and correctly diagnose 100% of the people who are negative,” "

Antibody Tests For Coronavirus Can Miss The Mark

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-the-mark


I think that the answer to your question is: "No."

Vinny

This is true for all tests, as she pointed out.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:04 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:03 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:51 pm I wonder if they'd be willing to tell you the antibody test's accuracy. My understanding is that most antibody tests tried thus far have specificity issues. For example, they can sometimes misidentify common cold antibodies as Covid-19 antibodies.

https://www.connectradio.fm/2020/04/20/ ... orah-birx/

"Birx said.”I want to be very clear to the American people, none of our tests are 100% sensitive and specific. What do I mean by that? None of our tests that we use in medicine and diagnose 100% of the people who are positive, and correctly diagnose 100% of the people who are negative,” "

Antibody Tests For Coronavirus Can Miss The Mark

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... s-the-mark


I think that the answer to your question is: "No."

Vinny

This is true for all tests, as she pointed out.

I was trying to find the section of one of her Sunday News shows interviews (from yesterday) where she explained where the tests are particularly unreliable when the person is just above or below the line of having something or not. Wish I could have found it because, of course, she explained it much better than my attempt here.

Vinny

VInny

Yes, of course if there is a relatively rare condition that you are testing for, there will be a substantial proportion of false positives.
That's just statistics. I assume an accountant can understand the math.

I had a covid-like cough... my wife had a very odd rash, and now we learn there is a covid rash! We need the fricking test here.

Just read elsewhere...

"Not so much fudging numbers, its people not willing to say we don't know yet. We don't know on a large scale who has antibodies. We also don't know for sure what protection antibodies provide. There are lines of people here to pay $160 for a COVID antibody test and I feel like asking them what they intend to do with it.
Leadership would help here. Tell us what tests are being done and what results are expected. How many antibody test are being produced? Trump says its up to the states. If thats the case nothing will be done. How hard is to get any facility to produce swabs? 24 hours a day? Over the last 8 weeks? "


Vinny

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:35 pm I had a covid-like cough... my wife had a very odd rash, and now we learn there is a covid rash! We need the fricking test here.

I just looked up the different rashes. Yikes. I’m glad you’re speaking in the past tense.

Has anybody here taken a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test yet?

I took one a couple of weeks ago (super-accurate one recently developed by a local biotech startup). Result was negative. So apparently the brief fever and head cold I got back in early Feb when I traveled to Germany for work wasn't the Wuhan.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 3:58 pm Has anybody here taken a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test yet?

I took one a couple of weeks ago (super-accurate one recently developed by a local biotech startup). Result was negative. So apparently the brief fever and head cold I got back in early Feb when I traveled to Germany for work wasn't the Wuhan.

We took one.
Negative for both types of antibodies.
So apparently the weird symptoms we had shortly after locking down were something else.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 8:30 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 3:58 pm Has anybody here taken a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test yet?

I took one a couple of weeks ago (super-accurate one recently developed by a local biotech startup). Result was negative. So apparently the brief fever and head cold I got back in early Feb when I traveled to Germany for work wasn't the Wuhan.

We took one.
Negative for both types of antibodies.
So apparently the weird symptoms we had shortly after locking down were something else.

I assume that meant leaving your house to do so?

What are you house leaving stats over whatever period of time you want to cite.

For me, I've only left my property twice in the past ten weeks.

But that could change in the not too distant future as there is a possibility one of our softball leagues may start on June 29th!

I really only want to leave my house for softball, basketball, or live music (with quite infrequent food shopping thrown in there). Otherwise quite content to be a homebody.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 9:01 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 8:30 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu May 21, 2020 3:58 pm Has anybody here taken a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test yet?

I took one a couple of weeks ago (super-accurate one recently developed by a local biotech startup). Result was negative. So apparently the brief fever and head cold I got back in early Feb when I traveled to Germany for work wasn't the Wuhan.

We took one.
Negative for both types of antibodies.
So apparently the weird symptoms we had shortly after locking down were something else.

I assume that meant leaving your house to do so?

What are you house leaving stats over whatever period of time you want to cite.

For me, I've only left my property twice in the past ten weeks.

But that could change in the not too distant future as there is a possibility one of our softball leagues may start on June 29th!

I really only want to leave my house for softball, basketball, or live music (with quite infrequent food shopping thrown in there). Otherwise quite content to be a homebody.

Vinny

During the plague, I've had to leave my house four times for medical reasons (doctor visits and surgery).
We've also gone to Walmart twice to pick up groceries and a local health food store for supplies.
We also went crazy and bought takeout food one time.
That's not counting going out walking on the road in front of my house, just the times when we had some contact with other people, although not close contact.

Simonjester wrote:
i have been working every day -no schedule change, shopping every two weeks -down from one small trip every second week and one big buy trip every second week. not much change in social life (another introvert) i am often home weekends anyway. i have had to wear a mask at work + social distancing..
i have found it hard to get all worked up and panicky over this "plague" other than the nuisance value of distancing and protective gear and the profoundly irritating petty tyrants on power trips over the rules , its all a bit underwhelming i don't even know somebody who knows somebody that has had this...

I think the only report I got is from a friend who I think told me his brother's family in California contracted it.

Simonjester wrote: i have been working every day -no schedule change, shopping every two weeks -down from one small trip every second week and one big buy trip every second week. not much change in social life (another introvert) i am often home weekends anyway. i have had to wear a mask at work + social distancing..
i have found it hard to get all worked up and panicky over this "plague" other than the nuisance value of distancing and protective gear and the profoundly irritating petty tyrants on power trips over the rules , its all a bit underwhelming i don't even know somebody who knows somebody that has had this...

My wife's stepdaughter's ex-mother-in law got it.
She was in the hospital and was doing pretty badly, next stop ventilator, until they gave her HCQ.
She started to recover almost immediately and was released from the hospital a few days later.
Yes, it's anecdotal. But I'm going to demand it if I get the plague.

Simonjester wrote: but you are supposed to be afraid of it...

Simonjester wrote: i have found it hard to get all worked up and panicky over this "plague" other than the nuisance value of distancing and protective gear and the profoundly irritating petty tyrants on power trips over the rules , its all a bit underwhelming i don't even know somebody who knows somebody that has had this...

Same. The closest it came for me was overhearing someone say their grandparent in a nursing home (non-NY) died from it, but that they were "in pretty bad shape" and would have been dead soon without it.

Still, you guys have to admit, if you lost someone near and dear to you you’d have a very different perspective.

I don’t know anyone who got vaporized at Nagasaki, but somehow I sense it’s a big deal.

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun May 24, 2020 8:06 am Still, you guys have to admit, if you lost someone near and dear to you you’d have a very different perspective.

I don’t know anyone who got vaporized at Nagasaki, but somehow I sense it’s a big deal.

dualstow, I think that's exactly what they're saying. But the fact that that is not the case, nor is it the case for anyone they know, does seem to indicate this isn't the immediate threat that it's being made to seem.