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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10496
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, ....
From everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?
I’d take the opposite bet. Namely that a week from now, the system will be coping well with it.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pmFrom everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?
Don't get sick or injured.
I certainly hope you are right. I just don't see how that's possible.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:57 pmI’d take the opposite bet. Namely that a week from now, the system will be coping well with it.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pmFrom everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?
Don't get sick or injured.
You were the first person who came to mind when a few hours ago I was working outside barefoot in my garden and I stepped on something that hurt the bottom of my foot.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pmFrom everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?
Don't get sick or injured.
Second.
DON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:46 pmYou were the first person who came to mind when a few hours ago I was working outside barefoot in my garden and I stepped on something that hurt the bottom of my foot.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pmFrom everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?
Don't get sick or injured.
As soon as I felt the pain, I said to myself, "Now what did Libertarian666 tell you??!!"
Luckily it was nothing serious and pain went away fairly quickly.
Vinny
Of course I would be very happy to be wrong: as happy as if I had won the lottery.WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pmSecond.
Both of these articles are your basic fear-mongering. For starters, it won't be "hundreds of thousands" of deaths. Figuring based on the number of deaths in China vs. their population, this is going to be something on the order of 2x the deaths from a normal flu year. Yes, that will be a big stress test for hospitals. But, hospitals are preparing for what they know is coming, and I can't see things getting that out of control.
It is true that if you have a non-serious medical issue in the next several months, you're going to have to wait. And "non-serious" means from the medical standpoint, not necessarily yours. It'll actually be interesting to see how many procedures and tests ordered for defensive, money-making, or please-the-customer reasons will go right out the window, with likely no negative effects. Maybe even positive effects, because procedures and tests always carry risk.
Paging Mark Leavy...
Thank you for posting that. It's good to see a sober and non-hyperbolic analysis to contrast with the clickbait.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:54 pm Different view:
https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... t-pandemic
I wasn't certain. I just couldn't tell how bad it was likely to be, so I prepared the best I could for an unknown outcome.MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:39 pmSays the guy who was certain Y2K was going to be TEOTWAWKI.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:21 pmOf course I would be very happy to be wrong: as happy as if I had won the lottery.WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pmSecond.
Both of these articles are your basic fear-mongering. For starters, it won't be "hundreds of thousands" of deaths. Figuring based on the number of deaths in China vs. their population, this is going to be something on the order of 2x the deaths from a normal flu year. Yes, that will be a big stress test for hospitals. But, hospitals are preparing for what they know is coming, and I can't see things getting that out of control.
It is true that if you have a non-serious medical issue in the next several months, you're going to have to wait. And "non-serious" means from the medical standpoint, not necessarily yours. It'll actually be interesting to see how many procedures and tests ordered for defensive, money-making, or please-the-customer reasons will go right out the window, with likely no negative effects. Maybe even positive effects, because procedures and tests always carry risk.
And I believe it has about the same likelihood, unfortunately.
Which considering I don't buy lottery tickets, is not very high.
When someone looks at data that shows a fairly smooth exponential growth and predicts that the incidence will grow exponentially, that's not really a big stretch.Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:42 pmThank you for posting that. It's good to see a sober and non-hyperbolic analysis to contrast with the clickbait.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:54 pm Different view:
https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... t-pandemic
One of the dangers of people spreading a bunch of scary contagion models is that most people don't understand that a model is only as good as the assumptions and inputs. Just because something looks scientific does not mean that it accurately models the real world, and I can guarantee that many of the stuff getting press is full of crap inputs and assumptions. Not because these people are dumb. But simply because even the experts are still learning new things every day and modeling things with so many variables is really freaking hard.
I MAY wear my sandals just for you! Of course, really for my ultimate benefit.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:20 pmDON'T GO OUTSIDE BAREFOOT!!!yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:46 pmYou were the first person who came to mind when a few hours ago I was working outside barefoot in my garden and I stepped on something that hurt the bottom of my foot.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pmFrom everything I can tell, in a week the health care system in the US will be overwhelmed.I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm So my question is, given all of the mitigation and suppression in place and going forward, shouldn't we soon have a decent handle on counting the cases and quarantining them? Like in a week or two from now?
Don't get sick or injured.
As soon as I felt the pain, I said to myself, "Now what did Libertarian666 tell you??!!"
Luckily it was nothing serious and pain went away fairly quickly.
Vinny
Yea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.
About the longest time that I'm wearing shoes is for softball or basketball. When home, whether inside or outside, it's usually nothing on my feet. And, when in the office, shoes or sandals are the first thing to come off when I get there.Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 pmYea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.
Safety first.
now that's just weird... i am the same, never wear socks unless in winter boots, and bare foot every minute i am not required to wear shoes...MangoMan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:45 amThat is me, as well. My GF is always asking if I'm cold. No, but if I have shoes on, I'm hot. And uncomfortable.yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:52 pmAbout the longest time that I'm wearing shoes is for softball or basketball. When home, whether inside or outside, it's usually nothing on my feet. And, when in the office, shoes or sandals are the first thing to come off when I get there.Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 pmYea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.
Safety first.
Vinny
Exponential growth that doesn't account for active countermeasures is just a math exercise and not a realistic model.Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:58 pm When someone looks at data that shows a fairly smooth exponential growth and predicts that the incidence will grow exponentially, that's not really a big stretch.
Of course I hope you and Epstein are right.
I just don't see it in the data.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!l82start wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:49 amnow that's just weird... i am the same, never wear socks unless in winter boots, and bare foot every minute i am not required to wear shoes...MangoMan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:45 amThat is me, as well. My GF is always asking if I'm cold. No, but if I have shoes on, I'm hot. And uncomfortable.yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:52 pmAbout the longest time that I'm wearing shoes is for softball or basketball. When home, whether inside or outside, it's usually nothing on my feet. And, when in the office, shoes or sandals are the first thing to come off when I get there.Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 pmYea. I'm definitely staying away from shoes now. The only time I ever trip or stumble is if I have some damn thing on my foot. I was in an all day board meeting today (video conference). On the patio outside my hotel room - barefoot and with a nice suit. I love video conferencing. I did wear pants though.
Safety first.
Vinny
i wonder if there is something about the permanent portfolio that attracts bare foot investors??