Gyroscopic Investing

I know of at least two sources of explosive spread that should never have occurred but are going to result in thousands of new US cases in the next few days.

1. This one you probably know about already: the crush of people in airports a couple of days ago due to the "enhanced screening" that they have been applying to people coming back from overseas. That was completely insane because of the number of asymptomatic carriers who must have been put into close proximity with uninfected people for hours.

What should have been done is that these people should have been kept on their planes until there was room for them to enter the terminal in groups 6 feet apart, one group for each row segment that would have been exposed to one another anyway (e.g., left and right sides of the plane for narrow-bodies and left, right, and middle row segments for wide-bodies).

If I can figure this out, why couldn't aviation executives?

2. This one is even more insane: https://kfor.com/news/local/oklahoma-yo ... -concerns/

"While countless sporting events and concerts have been canceled or postponed due to coronavirus concerns, thousands of Oklahoma kids and their families are gathered at the Oklahoma State Fairgrounds for an event they say they cannot afford to miss.

More than 7,000 exhibitors and their families travel from all over the state every year with their livestock for the Oklahoma Youth Expo."

Oklahoma had only a few cases before this. Now they may surpass some of the previous hotspots.

My mother was in the airport the other day. Taking a flight for non-virus medical reasons.
I'm expecting the worst.

Last time I went through airports in early Feb, I got sick four days later. And I'm generally pretty good about washing my hands and not touching my face.

Airports are straight up germ factories.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:20 pm Last time I went through airports in early Feb, I got sick four days later. And I'm generally pretty good about washing my hands and not touching my face.

Airports are straight up germ factories.

One caller to my sports talk radio show pointed out that the back of police cars are like a public rest room. Not that any of us are about to spend any time in the back of a police car.

But I was wondering yesterday how the police are now handling the pull you over while driving and then come up to your window.

Vinny

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:20 pm Last time I went through airports in early Feb, I got sick four days later. And I'm generally pretty good about washing my hands and not touching my face.

Airports are straight up germ factories.

What I'm especially afraid of is when my dad returns from Hong Kong/China...

Late April... and he doesn't "believe" in the whole self-quarantine thing.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:19 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:20 pm Last time I went through airports in early Feb, I got sick four days later. And I'm generally pretty good about washing my hands and not touching my face.

Airports are straight up germ factories.

What I'm especially afraid of is when my dad returns from Hong Kong/China...

Late April... and he doesn't "believe" in the whole self-quarantine thing.

I wouldn't bet that the airlines will still be flying then.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:20 pm
I wouldn't bet that the airlines will still be flying then.

That's what my mom and I were trying to convince him of, but he wouldn't listen.

Typical "I'm the head of the household and I know better than you, son." kind of attitude.

My mom was SO mad at him when he left.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:22 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:20 pm
I wouldn't bet that the airlines will still be flying then.

That's what my mom and I were trying to convince him of, but he wouldn't listen.

Typical "I'm the head of the household and I know better than you, son." kind of attitude.

My mom was SO mad at him when he left.

Haha, reminds me of my own dad. He's a retired doctor. I spoke with him this past weekend, and he told me he thinks the global reaction to the virus has been way overblown.

He said that in early April, he and my mom still plan to go on a road trip to another state with some friends and stay in an Airbnb with them. I kind of chuckled and told him that's probably not going to happen. He seemed genuinely surprised.

Later that night, he emailed me an editorial piece from his local newspaper, written by another doctor, confirming his view that the global reaction is overblown and people should just go about their normal activities and only stay home if they feel sick.

By contrast, Bill Ackman says that "Hell is coming."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ac ... n-now.html

I think the bottom line is that nobody really knows what's going to happen.

Think that the initial outbreak of Coronavirus was a black swan? What about the knock on effects this is going to have 3 or 4 dominoes down the road?

Remember how the financial crisis precipitated the discovery and collapse of Madoff's ponzi scheme? I'm sure we're going to be seeing lots of those types of events.

Like that old quote from Buffett, "You never know who's been swimming naked until the tide goes out."

If the CDC hadn’t focused for years on “gun control” and “social justice,” it would have been better prepared for coronavirus PANDEMIC.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-03-18- ... demic.html

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:37 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:22 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:20 pm
I wouldn't bet that the airlines will still be flying then.

That's what my mom and I were trying to convince him of, but he wouldn't listen.

Typical "I'm the head of the household and I know better than you, son." kind of attitude.

My mom was SO mad at him when he left.

Haha, reminds me of my own dad. He's a retired doctor. I spoke with him this past weekend, and he told me he thinks the global reaction to the virus has been way overblown.

He said that in early April, he and my mom still plan to go on a road trip to another state with some friends and stay in an Airbnb with them. I kind of chuckled and told him that's probably not going to happen. He seemed genuinely surprised.

Later that night, he emailed me an editorial piece from his local newspaper, written by another doctor, confirming his view that the global reaction is overblown and people should just go about their normal activities and only stay home if they feel sick.

How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:12 pm
How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

Vinny

He's close to 70.

My overall opinion is that I'd rather we all overreact than underreact.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:19 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:12 pm
How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

Vinny

He's close to 70.

My overall opinion is that I'd rather we all overreact than underreact.

That kind of thing is easy to say, but I think you're ignoring the cost of overreacting. It's the people with kids who suddenly have no job that I most worry about. The whatever-huge-percent it is that can't weather a $400 unexpected cost. Yes, maybe they "should" be better about managing money. But man, shutting down their industry is a big, big deal.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:30 pm
That kind of thing is easy to say, but I think you're ignoring the cost of overreacting. It's the people with kids who suddenly have no job that I most worry about. The whatever-huge-percent it is that can't weather a $400 unexpected cost. Yes, maybe they "should" be better about managing money. But man, shutting down their industry is a big, big deal.

That's a good point.

The real truth is that I'm a dumb shit when it comes to epidemiology and have zero good answers.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:51 pm By contrast, Bill Ackman says that "Hell is coming."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ac ... n-now.html
...

Ackman's in 'Dirty Money', too btw. Not for any wrongdoing, but just for messing up. Pharma episode.

(vinny){one caller said that} the back of police cars are like a public rest room.

I felt sorry for Uber and Lyft drivers at the beginning of this whole thing. They said people just cough from the back seat without covering up.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:19 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:12 pm
How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

Vinny

He's close to 70.

My overall opinion is that I'd rather we all overreact than underreact.

I'm only 13 months away from 70 so your father and I could be considered peers as far as ages go. His attitude seems similar to that in my organization. It's predominately older people like myself or ten years younger. And, a few in the 40s / 50s. And, only two in the 20s. In our organization (except for me) it's the older ones who have your father's attitude (or just not as strict with all the guidelines) while the two in the 20s are all for compliance. Big-time role reversal compared to what I'm hearing going on in the rest of our country.

Vinny

Somebody on my wife's Facebook earlier was saying what a reversal it was from her teenage years, that now she's yelling at her parents for going out instead of the other way around.

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:46 pm Somebody on my wife's Facebook earlier was saying what a reversal it was from her teenage years, that now she's yelling at her parents for going out instead of the other way around.

That was exactly what it was like at our organization's staff meeting yesterday. Five of them were in the conference room stating that they were "maintaining their distance" while I refused to come out of my office and all the other participants were participating from home. The youngest of all was NOT happy that they were all in that conference room.

Vinny

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:46 pm Somebody on my wife's Facebook earlier was saying what a reversal it was from her teenage years, that now she's yelling at her parents for going out instead of the other way around.

Someone should really make a newspaper cartoon out of that.

I’m getting confused by all thread titles with "Cases."

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:46 pm Somebody on my wife's Facebook earlier was saying what a reversal it was from her teenage years, that now she's yelling at her parents for going out instead of the other way around.

last time I had a cold my dad kept pushing me to see the doctor, implying that not doing so was irreponsible. I ended up going, and the doctor -- while he didn't say it outright -- basically had the attitude that I was kind of wasting his time over a cold. To be fair, I kind of was. I was already taking meds, getting lots of rest, etc.

With this whole matter of him going to China and Hong Kong amidst the outbreak, I'm never going to let him prod me about health again lol.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:18 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:46 pm Somebody on my wife's Facebook earlier was saying what a reversal it was from her teenage years, that now she's yelling at her parents for going out instead of the other way around.

last time I had a cold my dad kept pushing me to see the doctor, implying that not doing so was irreponsible. I ended up going, and the doctor -- while he didn't say it outright -- basically had the attitude that I was kind of wasting his time over a cold. To be fair, I kind of was. I was already taking meds, getting lots of rest, etc.

With this whole matter of him going to China and Hong Kong amidst the outbreak, I'm never going to let him prod me about health again lol.

Two years ago I went to the doctor because I felt sick. I thought it might be more serious than a cold. He diagnosed it as the common cold. He showed me a graph of the typical way you feel during the typical two week period of having a cold. He did not treat me in any way that I'd been silly for coming to see him. I also remember that I was quite glad and surprised that it turned out to only be a two or three days period of sickness for me and was back to feeling fine.

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:12 pm How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

He’s 75.

No, I still think my dad and the doctor who wrote that editorial are being flippant about this. It’s partly arrogance (not uncommon among doctors) and partly “I wanna go do my fun things. Me, me, me!”

They’ll gradually wake up to reality over the next week or two as the pandemic grows and people they know start getting hospitalized.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:43 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:12 pm How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

He’s 75.

No, I still think my dad and the doctor who wrote that editorial are being flippant about this. It’s partly arrogance (not uncommon among doctors) and partly “I wanna go do my fun things. Me, me, me!”

They’ll gradually wake up to reality over the next week or two as the pandemic grows and people they know start getting hospitalized.

I had once (maybe more) read that doctors are the worst investors because they always think in ALL areas of life they know more than everyone else. Maybe a stereotype?

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:47 pm I had once (maybe more) read that doctors are the worst investors because they always think in ALL areas of life they know more than everyone else. Maybe a stereotype?

Like most stereotypes, there’s probably a bit of truth behind it!

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:47 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:43 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:12 pm How old is your father? And, has your opinion changed at all based upon his and that editorial?

He’s 75.

No, I still think my dad and the doctor who wrote that editorial are being flippant about this. It’s partly arrogance (not uncommon among doctors) and partly “I wanna go do my fun things. Me, me, me!”

They’ll gradually wake up to reality over the next week or two as the pandemic grows and people they know start getting hospitalized.

I had once (maybe more) read that doctors are the worst investors because they always think in ALL areas of life they know more than everyone else. Maybe a stereotype?

Vinny

I've heard that if you have an "investment" that is so bad you can't sell it to a doctor, sell it to a dentist.
My dentist, who is a gem as a dentist, is a prime example of this.