Gyroscopic Investing

Right now (12:04 AM 3/15/2020) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ has the count at 2982.
I'm predicting 24000 at 12:01 AM 3/22/2020.

Who else wants to guess?

1 gram of gold on 20,000 cases, please.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:05 am Right now (12:04 AM 3/15/2020) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ has the count at 2982.
I'm predicting 24000 at 12:01 AM 3/22/2020.

Who else wants to guess?

I want to see Mathjak's guess since he seems to have unusual intuition. I'm guessing that your prediction is too low.

Vinny

100,000

I'll take 150,000 - provided that testing becomes widely available in the next few days. Numbers depend on that more than anything else.

Hey there you bunch of Weenies! No one else ready to participate in a friendly guessing game with 4 of us bolder types? Step up.

120,000

Well this is morbid





count me in! But, like WiseOne said in so many words, we're really betting on available testing at the same time.

50,000, just because I want to keep a safe distance between my number and all of yours.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:33 am Well this is morbid





count me in! But, like WiseOne said in so many words, we're really betting on available testing at the same time.

50,000, just because I want to keep a safe distance between my number and all of yours.

Are you afraid your number might go viral, or that the CDC police will come get you?

That was a good one, by the way!

200,000.

Xan wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:15 pm200,000.

<Xan commences licking every handrail in his city to tilt the odds in his favor>

Just doing my part!

Okay, it seems to be looking like we won't even have that many tests. I guess I'm "predicting" how many actual cases there will in fact be, which we'll only know in hindsight.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:35 am Okay, it seems to be looking like we won't even have that many tests.
...

I heard that one company will have five million tests ready very soon.
EDIT: Thermo Fisher, by next month.

Meanwhile 200,000 confirmed cases worldwide. Soon to be 400,000?

https://ncov2019.live/data

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:29 am

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:35 am Okay, it seems to be looking like we won't even have that many tests.
...

I heard that one company will have five million tests ready very soon.
EDIT: Thermo Fisher, by next month.

Meanwhile 200,000 confirmed cases worldwide. Soon to be 400,000?

https://ncov2019.live/data

That should take about three days at the current rate of spread.
Although I don't believe anything coming out of China.

Result according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ as of end of day 3/21/2020 (GMT):
24207.

Anyone else closer?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:42 pm Result according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ as of end of day 3/21/2020 (GMT):
24207.

Anyone else closer?

<slow clap>

I think that makes me second closest.

Congratulations Tech (and a hat tip to Smith as well). Remarkably close. Are you going to share your prediction methods with us?

What do you guess the number will be 3/28/2020 at the end of the day? I will stick with my last week's guess of 100,000.

Anyone else in?

Mountaineer wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:15 am Congratulations Tech (and a hat tip to Smith as well). Remarkably close. Are you going to share your prediction methods with us?

What do you guess the number will be 3/28/2020 at the end of the day? I will stick with my last week's guess of 100,000.

Anyone else in?

I have a secret formula. My guess is 152,000.
I hope it is way too high.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 am I'd like some predictions on when the quarantine will be lifted and people can go back to work and the gym, etc.

IL, for instance, is on lockdown until 4/7, but that could be relaxed or extended.

I'll go with Tuesday, June 2. And that even feels optimistic to me. What are you thinking, pug? I'm not going with Monday, June 1 so that I at least have a tiny chance of being "wonderfully correct".

•Tech, you nailed it! Accepting rounding, you couldn’t have got any closer! And if you had given the exact number, that would have been too close.
• Smithers wins the category of closest without going over.
• Trying to figure out tech’s formula: Instead of merely tripling again, it’s about 6x this time, so it’s exponential. I wonder if other variables went into it: news about available tests?

dualstow wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:35 am •Tech, you nailed it! Accepting rounding, you couldn’t have got any closer! And if you had given the exact number, that would have been too close.
• Smithers wins the category of closest without going over.
• Trying to figure out tech’s formula: Instead of merely tripling again, it’s about 6x this time, so it’s exponential. I wonder if other variables went into it: news about available tests?

Nope. It's very simple; too simple, in fact, for me to tell everyone about it, or they could all use it too.

All I can say at this point is that I can't recall a time when a single therapy had more lives riding on it, due to the very compressed timescale.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 am I'd like some predictions on when the quarantine will be lifted and people can go back to work and the gym, etc.

IL, for instance, is on lockdown until 4/7, but that could be relaxed or extended.

I'll go with April 15th, because that's enough time to get the distribution of treatment set up and running.
I hope it's earlier than that.

Good on you tech.

I was figuring my number assuming that testing would be widely available ("millions" I believe the promises said). Now that testing is actually going to be reduced rather than increased, I'm going to go with 80,000 for next Sunday.

I could go for a contest for the time of peak daily new coronavirus cases - that is inherently more predictable than the time that isolation measures will be lifted. For peak daily new cases, I'll predict April 15. For lifting of isolation measures I will guess May 31.