THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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ppnewbie
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THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:05 pm

Folks may want to check out this research from Artemis Capital. After a lot of research, I think this researcher came up with the PP or the Golden Butterfly. I listened to the recording yesterday and will read through the paper in the next day or two. He has an interesting perspective and it would be great if the smart people of the forum took a look at his work and commented. Specifically, he talks about being long volatility which I do not fully understand (he seems to be talking stocks).

Anyway - as an amateur, I will read the paper as well.

https://www.artemiscm.com/research - Main website
https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn - The paper
https://www.artemiscm.com/artemis-audio-recording - Recording

--- Research Intro ---
THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT
HOW TO BUILD A PORTFOLIO THAT LASTS 100 YEARS
I want you to imagine that you have the opportunity to grant your family great wealth and prosperity for 100 years subject to one important choice. You must decide what assets to invest in and maintain that allocation for an entire century without ever changing it. The future of your children’s children depends on your choice. What do you do?

The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent is a philosophic map to understanding the generational cycle of wealth creation, destruction, and rebirth to guide your investment decisions and protect your prosperity.
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mathjak107
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:03 am

i had to give up listening after 19 minutes .... it was just to long and dry for my taste and i lost interest , but thanks anyway
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by Kbg » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:46 am

I looked through the presentation...definitely non-standard (which is fine)

Quibbles...not sure how they derived historical performance as far back as they did for both long volatility and futures pie wedges. Maybe it was in the notes somewhere but I am unaware of data sets going back that far for both. 18% seems huge to me for the long vol wedge. That is going to be a significant "insurance cost" annually. Also, trend following futures has decidedly not worked for over a decade, granted it has not been a great time for such a strategy. There is a bit of debate that this former market edge has been arbitraged away.

Anyway, it might be a great strategy but if anyone were going to do this I would spend a TON of time going through and understanding the details.
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by Vil » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:55 am

Hi guys

Thanks for sharing. I read through it, indeed sounds interesting. How does the commodity trending actually work as diversifier ? As far as I can recall in some articles it was stated that correlation with bonds tends to be rather negative, while with stocks it's a sort of 'never know' although in the last years its quite negative.
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by pmward » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:12 pm

Yeah I found this intriguing as well. The long vol portion would indeed be difficult to implement without being an accredited investor with access to hedge funds. The carry cost is so incredibly high if you do this part wrong. I also wish I could have access to the data he used to dig deeper into it. He is a hedge fund guy with a long vol fund after all, so without open source data I have my suspicions. Commodity trend though has long been known to be a great diversifier (though like kgb mentioned it is terribly out of favor at the moment), and there are ways retail investors can access funds for this part.
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:14 pm

I reached out to Artemis Capital - Cost is 2/20 minimum 250k.
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by pugchief » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:24 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:14 pm
I reached out to Artemis Capital - Cost is 2/20 minimum 250k.
I'll do it for you for 1.5/15 and a $100,000 minimum. O0
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:45 pm

I need to learn more about long volatility and commodity trend following.
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by gull1 » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:43 am

Podcast interview recently with Chris Cole of Artemis, fast forward to about 11min

https://www.macrovoices.com/785-macrovo ... ging-times
Last edited by gull1 on Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by pmward » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:02 am

Long vol would have been great this week!
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by ppnewbie » Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:58 pm

Listened to the podcast. Thanks for sharing that. This week would have been the hawk killing the snake before it finished eating itself!
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Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:43 pm

I found another long volatility fund that charges 1% management fee and 10% incentive fee. With a minimum investment of 100k. It’s called mutiny fund (mutinyfund.com). These guys also have a podcast where they go over their entire strategy in a four part series called ”Why Mutiny”.

It also turns out they are fans of the HBPP. They initially got started when they were trying to juice the the HBPP cash bucket.

They also discuss how the prevent from bleeding money during the long periods of low volatility.
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