Speculators Anonymous

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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pmward
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Speculators Anonymous

Post by pmward » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:23 pm

My name is pmward and I'm a speculator. Do you have a VP? Do you have an interest in technical analysis, quantitative analysis, fundamental analysis, global macro, trend following, portfolio tilting, back testing, or just generally have a speculative opinion on what is going on in markets and where they may be going? This is a general thread for all of these kinds of things.
pmward
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by pmward » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:30 pm

Current speculation, small caps, and specifically small cap value. In my experience, I've come to view small-caps as the "canary in the coal mine" for stocks. If small caps go up, stocks in general tend to follow more often than not. Likewise, when small caps stagnate or breakdown, typically stocks as a whole tend to follow more often than not. There has been a long going divergence going back to February where small caps have been in a very defined downtrend, while large caps went up and then started to stagnate. Look at the screenshot below to see the downtrend in IJS, small cap value, which was in even more of a pronounced downtrend than small-cap blend. You can also see I have labelled the downtrend channel line in black, as well as major past resistance levels in red dotted lines. You can see that this broke out of the downtrend like wildfire this week. You can also see the macd at the bottom, momentum is currently at the highest level than it has been since December, and is still increasing. Volume has also been very high on this breakout. All long, medium, and short term moving averages are also bullishly aligned. I see this as huge news, as with small caps in a downtrend and large caps stagnating I was expecting a pull-back. Instead, the evidence points to a potential rally in stocks that could take us to significant new highs. Small-caps especially have a lot of room to run. Value also appears to be waking up from it's long slumber and currently has more momentum than growth or blend. Any thoughts on stocks, small cap, or value sub-sets inline or against my own? Any other bullish or bearish thoughts on any other assets?
Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 10.23.16 AM.png
Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 10.23.16 AM.png (302.62 KiB) Viewed 291 times
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shekels
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by shekels » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:45 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:30 pm
Current speculation, small caps, and specifically small cap value. In my experience, I've come to view small-caps as the "canary in the coal mine" for stocks. If small caps go up, stocks in general tend to follow more often than not. Likewise, when small caps stagnate or breakdown, typically stocks as a whole tend to follow more often than not. There has been a long going divergence going back to February where small caps have been in a very defined downtrend, while large caps went up and then started to stagnate. Look at the screenshot below to see the downtrend in IJS, small cap value, which was in even more of a pronounced downtrend than small-cap blend. You can also see I have labelled the downtrend channel line in black, as well as major past resistance levels in red dotted lines. You can see that this broke out of the downtrend like wildfire this week. You can also see the macd at the bottom, momentum is currently at the highest level than it has been since December, and is still increasing. Volume has also been very high on this breakout. All long, medium, and short term moving averages are also bullishly aligned. I see this as huge news, as with small caps in a downtrend and large caps stagnating I was expecting a pull-back. Instead, the evidence points to a potential rally in stocks that could take us to significant new highs. Small-caps especially have a lot of room to run. Value also appears to be waking up from it's long slumber and currently has more momentum than growth or blend. Any thoughts on stocks, small cap, or value sub-sets inline or against my own? Any other bullish or bearish thoughts on any other assets?

Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 10.23.16 AM.png
If I was Speculating I would set a Limit order in lower, and keep a tight trailing stop, until I see a better setup.
Money is looking for somewhere to go, and it may be Small Caps ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Good Luck

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IJS&p ... 5940583511
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ochotona
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by ochotona » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:39 pm

My primary speculation is that absolute and dual momentum on 3, 6, 12 month timescales will continue to exist for US and ex-US equity and bond markets, that the ~200 day moving averages will continue to work, and that economic indicators like unemployment, the yield curve, financial conditions, retail sales, industrial production, etc. will continue to work.

My other speculation is that the US Dollar will lose much of its purchasing power over the rest of my life due to the Federal debt and unfunded liabilities, which is why I own Gold.

I have a minor speculation that oilfield services companies are going to catch a powerful bid someday, but... who knows. I was walking the halls today at my old employer Schlumberger, and it was a ghost town. It almost can't get any worse.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:00 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:39 pm
I was walking the halls today at my old employer Schlumberger, and it was a ghost town. It almost can't get any worse.
Funny enough, my old Fortune 500 employer has been hurting for a while. Haven't been hiring anybody, and my friend who still works there said it's a Sword of Damocles (paraphrasing) feeling all the time.
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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ochotona
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by ochotona » Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:13 pm

And I have no idea about Long Bonds. None whatsoever. Just gobsmacked. Made out well recently but a dangerous game.
pmward
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by pmward » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:49 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:13 pm
And I have no idea about Long Bonds. None whatsoever. Just gobsmacked. Made out well recently but a dangerous game.
Yeah bonds are indeed tricky right now. I'm still a believer in the long term, but in the short term the charts are indeed looking very ugly and selling some bonds when you did was a good short term call, even after the big rally today we are still under the major resistance levels we broke below last week. The real question is, is the recent rout a buying opportunity or a topping pattern? I still lean towards buying opportunity, as the global path of least resistance right now is lower yields. Usually it's best to bet with the tide as opposed to against it. I think the probability is that this is just a healthy retracement, as currently we have actually only retraced ~30% of the move, and a typical healthy bull retracement is considered anywhere from a 50-66% retracement of the run. But I would wait for at least some sign of life before I would allocate any speculative VP money towards bonds (I am still DCA'ing into them in my PP when they become the lowest asset... which obviously hasn't been the case in quite awhile with the strong rally, maybe I'll get a dip enough to buy more here prior to the next leg up?).

Eventually, we are bound to a return to inflation. But when that is is anybodies guess??? Super long term on a macro level, I'm a very big fan of gold and real estate.
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ochotona
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:41 am

More speculation.. there will be a real estate dip to buy when I am 65, the oldest boomer will be 80. I can probably pick up a boomer crib in a nice place for cheap. Will have to renovate though.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:09 am

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To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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Smith1776
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:08 pm

I am and always have been deep into the Graham and Dodd value philosophy.

I'm currently on the trail of Michael Burry (yes, that one) and looking at some of his fairly recent filings for his value holdings.

https://whalewisdomalpha.com/michael-bu ... -holdings/

Definitely looking to add to the ol' VP.
V = E * (8.5 + 2G)
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InsuranceGuy
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Re: Speculators Anonymous

Post by InsuranceGuy » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:01 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:23 pm
My name is pmward and I'm a speculator. Do you have a VP? Do you have an interest in technical analysis, quantitative analysis, fundamental analysis, global macro, trend following, portfolio tilting, back testing, or just generally have a speculative opinion on what is going on in markets and where they may be going? This is a general thread for all of these kinds of things.
My name is IG and I'm a spectator I guess. I'm more of a deviant than pmward as I 100% of my money is in my VP (a quantitative modeled momentum strategy).

pmward - That said, I see and read some of the crazy technical indicators and analysis that you write and I have to admit that I'm a little bit fascinated by the whole prospect. I would love to know more about your background and how you got into this style of analysis if you are willing to share You have said in a few posts that you have had some real world experience, have you worked at a hedge fund or quant fund? I have thought about trying put together an ensemble model of several popular technical indicators but I haven't had the time or drive to get into it.

Cheers!
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