Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

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Hal
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Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Hal » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:31 am

Hi All,

Just reading a book called "Aftermath" and thought I would post a comment.

Was most interested that Rickards believed that we would be entering a long term low growth environment over the next few years (assumption - not very PP like) and given that, a barbell portfolio should be held consisting of precious metals etc for inflation, bonds etc for deflation and cash. So you have three quarters of a PP already.

The book also does a nice demolition job on the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

An interesting comment near the end of the book is that at present staying in stocks/bonds now might be ok, but eventually may need to go to cash then gold/farmland if things get really out of hand. And this is where I see the PP's only failing... if the economy/currency really get in trouble, I would not want to be rebalancing out of Gold into a failing currency.
(Zimbabwe PP anyone ? )

Did HB ever mention when a PP would not be appropriate?

All comments welcome !
Hal
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by europeanwizard » Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:43 pm

Is it US-centric, or global in its narrative? Or is it rather about applying principles?

Great topic, by the way. I love me a good book review.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 09, 2019 3:45 pm

Hal, NO SPOILERS.

Just kidding. I've been looking soooooo forward to reading this book, and my local library has it on order. I just can't bring myself to pay 30 some odd dollars for the book at the moment. I am having a hard time waiting though.

I am actually a huge fan of the books of James Rickards -- though admittedly more for economic entertainment than buying 100% into his conclusions.

You know what, I may just drive to my local bookstore and just read the darn thing in the store... ;D
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Hal
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Hal » Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:28 pm

europeanwizard wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:43 pm
Is it US-centric, or global in its narrative? Or is it rather about applying principles?

Great topic, by the way. I love me a good book review.
What little I have read, it seems to be global in its coverage. Rickards thinks the current system will change due to the debt, and offers several guiding principles. It really is a macro overview - don't expect to find exact percentages for asset allocations, although I did see he suggested 10% Gold, 30% Cash.

In Australia it really is quite pertinent due to *massive* private housing debt and a economy only kept up by Government infrastructure spending.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by boglerdude » Sat Aug 10, 2019 11:57 pm

> The book also does a nice demolition job on the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Summary?
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:05 pm

I just finished reading the book. My local library finally added it to their catalogue.

Overall? It's a good book.

It's definitely more along the lines of what you would call financial entertainment rather than a serious book about how to protect your wealth. I don't mean that in a denigrating way, but take it for what it is.

What he refers to as the 7 secrets of wealth preservation basically lead to a very PP like portfolio. Takeaways include: having physical gold; having a barbell in your portfolio; have cash; look at alternatives such as private equity, venture capital, and even farmland. It's pretty much just that last part that has strong deviations from what most people on this forum are doing.

Some parts of the book are genuinely fascinating, such as his discussion on the concept of choice architecture. He likens the beeping sounds your car makes when you leave the lights on as the same kind of "nudge" that 401K offering forms have to steer you into saving.

Other parts of the book are a bit more suspect, such as his critique on indexing. I'm not going to say that his lamentations about indexing potentially becoming too big are invalid. Bogle, in fact, expressed similar sentiments -- but they tended to be purely on a theoretical level. Rickards is quite a bit more sensationalist.

He also goes quite in depth into Modern Monetary Theory, his criticisms, and what President Trump is likely to do before his term is up. He also, of course, talks quite a bit about gold and its role in your portfolio.

Good enough that I think I'm going to do another read through before returning it.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:44 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:05 pm
I just finished reading the book. My local library finally added it to their catalogue.

Overall? It's a good book.

It's definitely more along the lines of what you would call financial entertainment rather than a serious book about how to protect your wealth. I don't mean that in a denigrating way, but take it for what it is.

What he refers to as the 7 secrets of wealth preservation basically lead to a very PP like portfolio. Takeaways include: having physical gold; having a barbell in your portfolio; have cash; look at alternatives such as private equity, venture capital, and even farmland. It's pretty much just that last part that has strong deviations from what most people on this forum are doing.

Some parts of the book are genuinely fascinating, such as his discussion on the concept of choice architecture. He likens the beeping sounds your car makes when you leave the lights on as the same kind of "nudge" that 401K offering forms have to steer you into saving.

Other parts of the book are a bit more suspect, such as his critique on indexing. I'm not going to say that his lamentations about indexing potentially becoming too big are invalid. Bogle, in fact, expressed similar sentiments -- but they tended to be purely on a theoretical level. Rickards is quite a bit more sensationalist.

He also goes quite in depth into Modern Monetary Theory, his criticisms, and what President Trump is likely to do before his term is up. He also, of course, talks quite a bit about gold and its role in your portfolio.

Good enough that I think I'm going to do another read through before returning it.
Just seeing this Topic for the first time.

Thanks for the review.

Just bought the Kindle version for $14.99 (and got a $3.75 credit to be used on my next "Great on Kindle" book purchase).

Vinny
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Hal wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:31 am
Hi All,

Just reading a book called "Aftermath" and thought I would post a comment.

Was most interested that Rickards believed that we would be entering a long term low growth environment over the next few years (assumption - not very PP like) and given that, a barbell portfolio should be held consisting of precious metals etc for inflation, bonds etc for deflation and cash. So you have three quarters of a PP already.

The book also does a nice demolition job on the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

An interesting comment near the end of the book is that at present staying in stocks/bonds now might be ok, but eventually may need to go to cash then gold/farmland if things get really out of hand. And this is where I see the PP's only failing... if the economy/currency really get in trouble, I would not want to be rebalancing out of Gold into a failing currency.
(Zimbabwe PP anyone ? )

Did HB ever mention when a PP would not be appropriate?

All comments welcome !
Hal
Thanks again for letting us know about this book. After first reading your above I made my first comment regarding it on Saturday and stated that I bought it.

Tonight I started reading it and got about 1/6 of the way through while eating supper.

I was not concentrating on trying to remember what I was reading but a lot that I read surprisingly has still stuck with me. From what I remember...

1) He likes gold

2) He believes that all the following presidents were globalists - Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, 2nd Bush, Obama. He may have named others in between but I'm just not remembering.

3) Stated the four greatest presidents were Washington, Lincoln, and the two Roosevelts.

4) Does not seem to be a fan of the Fed. Or, at least pointed out some major, huge negative consequential decisions they implemented.

5) Thinks Ford was a vastly underrated president with his two greatest (underrated) accomplishments being the Helsinki Accord and making it legal to once again own gold.

6) He write in an extremely entertaining style

7) For many years he worked for the CIA and part of an elite group within the CIA

8) He described the sale of the ports to Saudi Arabia wherein Senator Hillary Clinton was on one side of the issue while Bill Clinton was on the other side of the issue, working for a dictator for some country whose name I could never spell. It beings with a K. Or, I may conflating some of this stories here.

9) He gave his analysis of Uranium One and how it came to be. And, that this was the exact type of thing that should have come before his elite group in the CIA. Except somehow it was kept away from them so that they had no idea about it until it was a completed action. Stated that this was a prime example of the Clintons doing their thing.

10) Believe that Trump is our first nationalist president since Theodore Roosevelt. Except that he added that Trump is a natavist nationalist.

11) He believes that the Fed has been raising the rate progressively not for today's purposes but for the next financial crisis. The Fed needs the rate to be at least 4% for them to be able to do their part in attempting to fix a future financial crisis.

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.

Vinny
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Kbg » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:05 am

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2017/02 ... n=fredblog

Current version...(hopefully the link will work for you) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S#0

The second link did not work as I hoped, but it hasn't changed much from 2017. You can update it using the instructions from the first link.
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by vnatale » Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:54 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
I believe you are correct!

Vinny
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Re: Jim Rickards new book is an interesting read - almost PP like

Post by Xan » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:03 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:54 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:37 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

12) On the first page of the book he quotes from Homer's Illiad poem (never read it). One mythological woman in it has six heads with teeth that would make JAWS seem tiny while she had six ferocious dogs around her waste. The other mythological woman swallowed whole oceans and then caused whirlpools. I forget which one he chose to accept as the lesser risk. But he analogizes the risks presented by each with the risks the Fed assesses in taking their actions in that they are forced to make the choice between two bad outcomes.
Must be Scylla and Charybdis. “Between a rock and a hard place.”
I believe you are correct!

Vinny
Surely that's the Odyssey, though, right?
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