Gyroscopic Investing

Cortopassi wrote: I don't know if the gyrations are over after the jobs report, but who expected a V shaped response after a very good report?  Not me.  Please educate me.  These things always do differently than I expect!

No one knows what is going to happen in investments, although lots of people claim to know (and claim that they predicted things that they didn't predict, at least in any actionable way). That was the main point of one of HB's books.

They say that wanting to understand and wanting to know the cause of things is a sign of intelligence.
I've long since given up trying to know why bonds, gold or stocks moved a certain way on a certain day, so maybe my lack of intelligence is a blessing in this case.

Cortopassi wrote: I don't know if the gyrations are over after the jobs report, but who expected a V shaped response after a very good report?  Not me.  Please educate me.  These things always do differently than I expect!

One day, makes no difference. I suspect the weekend pondering will be about the Fed's next move vis a vis interest rates.

dualstow wrote: They say that wanting to understand and wanting to know the cause of things is a sign of intelligence.
I've long since given up trying to know why bonds, gold or stocks moved a certain way on a certain day, so maybe my lack of intelligence is a blessing in this case.

An even greater sign of intelligence is the ability to distinguish between reality and fantasy. In this case, the fantasy is that anyone can provide meaningful explanations for essentially random events.

Hah! Yeah, sometimes you have to know when to say when.

Now to get back to the original topic of the thread: gold is now up almost $200 since Dec. 31st, so I believe a cheer is in order!

Libertarian666 wrote: Now to get back to the original topic of the thread: gold is now up almost $200 since Dec. 31st, so I believe a cheer is in order!

rah, rah, siss boom bah!

If the post about IAU not being able to create new shares due not having the physical gold is accurate, that is an interesting development...I have a hard time believing it though.

The ETFs have been leveraging 280 times as of lately. That is, their exists only 1 unit of gold for for every 280th share.

lordmetroid wrote: The ETFs have been leveraging 280 times as of lately. That is, their exists only 1 unit of gold for for every 280th share.

Yikes!  Do you have a source for this?

I was going to buy IAU this week, and now I'm sure what to get. PHYS seems to be unpopular (I used to own GTU). I have PHYS & IAU.
Have never bought GLD.
This is a retirement account, a 401(k), so maybe I should look at the stuff I normally shy away from in my taxable account.

Look at the drop and recovery from the ECB bank move this morning and Draghi's follow up comments.  This market is completely unpredictable.  Again, I would have predicted a disastrous day for gold, and it was going to be.  Until it wasn't.

Love the PP

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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi awed markets by delivering his most audacious stimulus package yet, and then shocked currency markets by saying he sees no need for further interest-rate cuts, causing the euro to reverse its losses.

Cortopassi wrote: Look at the drop and recovery from the ECB bank move this morning and Draghi's follow up comments.  This market is completely unpredictable.  Again, I would have predicted a disastrous day for gold, and it was going to be.  Until it wasn't.

Love the PP

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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi awed markets by delivering his most audacious stimulus package yet, and then shocked currency markets by saying he sees no need for further interest-rate cuts, causing the euro to reverse its losses.

Didn't know about Draghi's latest but I was wondering what that blip was. I though maybe Cortopassi had liquidated all of his precious metals causing the market to dip dramatically.

From Forbes:  Gold Sees Solid Gains In Aftermath of Dovish FOMC Statement

Up $27 currently after the Fed meeting.

l82start wrote: probably a stupid question.. but was gold actually traded for 20 bucks during the depression, or if you had a gold coin and rent to pay, food to buy, kids to feed, etc.. did you take the coin to some shady guy down some back ally and get a better price?

Most people used gold notes not actual gold coins for commerce.  1933 stopped the note for gold redemptions, but silver notes were still redeemable until the late 60's.

Libertarian666 wrote: Currencies were fixed against one another. I don't think there was much arbitrage possible at the time.

Currencies were fixed against gold, but they certainly weren't fixed against one another due to the imbalances the so-called "gold standard" created.

dualstow wrote: I was reviewing the wiki page on Executive Order 6102 yesterday, and while all of your post looks accurate, the page says that that safe deposit boxes were not opened or seized. You didn't mention safe deposit boxes, but I'm bringing them up because the wiki page does. If the wiki page is accurate and the story about those boxes being opened is just a hoax, then I guess a lot of people were able to keep their gold through 1933 and '34 by just leaving their gold in them, though they were unable to trade. Is that right?

Only domestically, so it had the effect of nulling the hoarding.  Yet, you could sell the coins outside the country and/or store/buy it outside the country.  Remember, a law is not a law unless it is enforced.  And enforcement was lax; there's only a record of one person ever being prosecuted.

ochotona wrote: The 1-year look-back Time Series Momentum picture for gold just today is that is better than US Aggregate bonds or US Short Term Bonds. So if it is in the investor's opportunity set, they have a new buy signal today.

It's only valid on a monthly closing basis.  Smoothing.

Good to see you around. Make sure you visit the anti-poaching thread before you take another vacation from the forum.

dualstow wrote: Good to see you around. Make sure you visit the anti-poaching thread before you take another vacation from the forum.

Roger Wilco.

I'm going to make a run at some more bullion coins in 2-3 more months, approximately. That's when we might be in a price dip again.

Ocho, that's quite a definitive timeline.  Why do you think 2-3 months from now will be a dip in prices?

I've given up trying to prognosticate, and I am emotionally better for it. 

I'm not trying to trade. I'm just trying to buy on dips. The technical indicators like the MACD on the weekly chart have a ridiculously sinusoidal periodicity, that's why I think 2-3 months more for a local dip. I won't predict price.

After the latest $IAU running out of issuable shares fiasco, I sold my $IAU for a small profit. I am taking the precious metals ETF counter-party risk thing more seriously from now on. I'll cost average into a position and hold it.

I look once a week, like checking the Sunday newspaper for sales. It's not stressful.

ochotona wrote: n the weekly chart have a ridiculously sinusoidal periodicity

I usually take a decongestant for that.

Seems to have hit 1280/oz this morning.