Gyroscopic Investing

flyingpylon wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: As I've already explained, this is entirely due to the dollar's spike.
Gold is up in every other major currency.
Of course this doesn't make it feel much better to those of us who reckon in dollars, but it is instructive nevertheless.

Anyone noticed that gas prices are down too?  Seems like more than a coincidence, but I really don't know.

Most commodities are also priced in dollars, so that isn't surprising either.

Nice climb in GTU right now.

Not sure if it's from this - http://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-g ... 43486.html

I got $32 back from Macy's today!

ochotona wrote: I got $32 back from Macy's today!

Automatic refunds:

https://paribus.co/

What, no one is upset enough to continue posting on the original topic? 

Eh, who cares, the stock market goes up by hundreds practically every day now, offsetting the opposite in gold.  All is well. 

Libertarian666 wrote: What, no one is upset enough to continue posting on the original topic? 

We own less gold as a % than you; that's your job. 

dualstow wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: What, no one is upset enough to continue posting on the original topic? 

We own less gold as a % than you; that's your job. 

As long as I don't have to sell, I don't care, and I won't have to sell for a couple of years at least.
Actually, if I came into a bunch of money soon, I'd be happy that it is down so much.

Libertarian666 wrote:

dualstow wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: What, no one is upset enough to continue posting on the original topic? 

We own less gold as a % than you; that's your job. 

As long as I don't have to sell, I don't care, and I won't have to sell for a couple of years at least.
Actually, if I came into a bunch of money soon, I'd be happy that it is down so much.

I don't know how you keep the faith that gold will rebound in your investing time frame. Some investors are wired differently than others.

I won't even attempt to figure out what i would have given up the last 5 years if the equity's portion of my portfolio was not 50% but only 25% with the other half in gold.

In our case we added a lot of money in from the sales of the real estate.

Libertarian666 wrote: As long as I don't have to sell, I don't care, and I won't have to sell for a couple of years at least.
Actually, if I came into a bunch of money soon, I'd be happy that it is down so much.

That's exactly why I'm not complaining, for one. Can't speak for others, and I didn't suddenly come into a bunch of money, but I am happy that it is down.

Edit: In fact, at some point I might be tempted to go all in, and really make gold 25% of my total, or rather, make the pp 100% of my investments.

mathjak107 wrote: I won't even attempt to figure out what i would have given up the last 5 years if the equity's portion of my portfolio was not 50% but only 25% with the other half in gold.

In our case we added a lot of money in from the sales of the real estate.

Good choices and not regretting not having made bad ones... a good spot for you MJ!  I, on the other hand, have many investing regrets!

ochotona wrote:

I can draw a line anywhere I want to on that chart. Does it mean anything?

I'll scream for the hell of it.

Clive Maund is very bullish on the COT report, lowest shorts by commercials in 14 years.  I may break down and buy a few calls on GLD for the variable portfolio.  I've lost on every SLV call that I had for the past 4 years.  Instead of getting scared out, going to dip my toe in again for the first time in over 2 years.

Hell it is $1048 right now.  Aaarggghhh.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3638

Libertarian666,

Any explanation for today's huge drop in the dollar but no immediate reaction in gold?  I understand things might not generally be immediate mirror images, but I do find it interesting that today, with bonds getting whacked and the stock market sideways that gold should be pulling up the slack, and it is not.

According to Kitco, the price of gold thus far today is +$20.10 due to drop in dollar but -$14.80 due to selling for a net +$5.30/oz...

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.h ... mpaign=KGX

I follow that Kitco information, and that's the basis for my question.  It *seems* >50% of the time when there is a significant drop in the dollar, there is offsetting selling of gold that keeps it from being one to one inverse. 

However, when the dollar sees a very strong day, you can pretty much bank on gold getting whacked >50% of the time.

Just my anecdotal observations.  If I were to take a hard look at the data I could be completely wrong.

And why is the USD getting plastered? Sorry for my blissful ignorance but I haven't checked the financial news (I try to stay away if I can).

Cortopassi wrote: Libertarian666,

Any explanation for today's huge drop in the dollar but no immediate reaction in gold?  I understand things might not generally be immediate mirror images, but I do find it interesting that today, with bonds getting whacked and the stock market sideways that gold should be pulling up the slack, and it is not.

I don't have an explanation for that, but I could make one up if you would like me to. 

Seriously, no one knows the answer to these things, at least before they happen. Afterwards, it's easy to make up an explanation, but that's good only for its entertainment value.

barrett wrote: And why is the USD getting plastered? Sorry for my blissful ignorance but I haven't checked the financial news (I try to stay away if I can).

Probably because investors are now worried the snowballing recession will prompt the Fed NOT to raise rates at the December meeting.  It's something different every day with these Chicken Littles.  The PMI recently came in under 50 signaling contraction even though manufacturing only makes up about 13% of GDP now.  The strong dollar is killing exports as well as the cheap oil.

Gold may be priced in USD but it is not a pair relationship where one has to be sold to buy the other.  That only exists in currencies.  So if people want to raise cash in a foreign currency by selling dollars, it has no direct effect on gold.

MachineGhost wrote:

barrett wrote: And why is the USD getting plastered? Sorry for my blissful ignorance but I haven't checked the financial news (I try to stay away if I can).

Probably because investors are now worried the snowballing recession will prompt the Fed NOT to raise rates at the December meeting.  It's something different every day with these Chicken Littles.  The PMI recently came in under 50 signaling contraction even though manufacturing only makes up about 13% of GDP now.

Nope. USD down on Draghi tightening which bolstered the Euro. This will reverse tomorrow and crush gold below 1000. Treasuries will sink on jobs report and stocks will rally to new highs.

buddtholomew wrote: Nope. USD down on Draghi tightening which bolstered the Euro. This will reverse tomorrow and crush gold below 1000. Treasuries will sink on jobs report and stocks will rally to new highs.

I had to go look up the news before I would believe that.  There's no tigthening by Draghi.  It's just an overreaction to the type of bonds the ECB will now asset swap for, i.e. an increase in perceived easing.  One day wonder.

MachineGhost wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: Nope. USD down on Draghi tightening which bolstered the Euro. This will reverse tomorrow and crush gold below 1000. Treasuries will sink on jobs report and stocks will rally to new highs.

I had to go look up the news before I would believe that.  There's no tigthening by Draghi.  It's just an overreaction to the type of bonds the ECB will now asset swap for, i.e. an increase in perceived easing.  One day wonder.

Tell that to stocks and LTT's. US is raising rates.

buddtholomew wrote:

MachineGhost wrote:

barrett wrote: And why is the USD getting plastered? Sorry for my blissful ignorance but I haven't checked the financial news (I try to stay away if I can).

Probably because investors are now worried the snowballing recession will prompt the Fed NOT to raise rates at the December meeting.  It's something different every day with these Chicken Littles.  The PMI recently came in under 50 signaling contraction even though manufacturing only makes up about 13% of GDP now.

Nope. USD down on Draghi tightening which bolstered the Euro. This will reverse tomorrow and crush gold below 1000. Treasuries will sink on jobs report and stocks will rally to new highs.

That's great to know in advance, because then you can make an easy million or two by shorting gold for all you are worth. Please do; I can't wait to say "I knew him before he made that killing"!