Gyroscopic Investing

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:48 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:24 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:16 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm I also think it will not be as bad in most areas of the country as it is in NYC. In NYC, many people spend a bit of every day packed into subway cars, elevators, buses, and trains like sardines, and they spend much more time in public spaces like parks, the sidewalk etc. In this respect we are similar to Italy where people aren't much into "personal space" - in fact, NYC's cultural heritage IS in no small part from Italy. That is not how it is in most places. It's not surprising that a bug like this would spread like wildfire here.

Sometimes small town livin pays off.

Somewhere here today I stated that our county is about 800 square miles with a population of about 71,000. I live on 0.40 acre plot of land. Maybe average or on the small side for this neighborhood. Little public transportation aside from some buses. Almost all of us get around via our cars.

Where WiseOne lives there are 27,000 people per square mile??!! Roughly 300 times as dense as where I live? (Just doing rough calculations in my head..)


Vinny

I don't know the size of my county but the 2010 census showed it as having 35k people. I think it's probably gone up quite a bit since then, based on the traffic.



We live on 6 1/2 acres, which is pretty average for our "neighborhood" as far as I know. No public transportation of any kind.

I got my information from Wikipedia. Probably has yours there also.

Vinny

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:25 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:08 pm

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:00 pm https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... -countries

Why Germany’s Coronavirus Death Rate is Far Lower than in Other Countries

Is it because they’re the Master Race? Oh, I see it:

because of his country's ability to test early and often.

It's not the early and often part, just that the amount of actual testing shows the morbidity and mortality rates to be much lower that everyone is freaking out about.

I think it's a combination -- yes, have a better sense of the impacted population, which gives a more accurate mortality rate.

And by knowing who has it, can isolate / quarantine them to reduce the spread.

Reduced exposure to volnerable Population.

Not overwhelming the health care system, so those sick can get treatment.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:25 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:08 pm

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:00 pm https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... -countries

Why Germany’s Coronavirus Death Rate is Far Lower than in Other Countries

...
Oh, I see it:

because of his country's ability to test early and often.

It's not the early and often part,

Well, it *is*. Full sentence reads:

Drosten, whose team of researchers developed the first COVID-19 test used in the public domain, said Germany's low fatality rate is because of his country's ability to test early and often

It doesn’t get anymore *is* than that.

(pug) just that the amount of actual testing shows the morbidity and mortality rates to be much lower that everyone is freaking out about.

As Dieter said, that doesn’t hurt either.

If you can put on C-Span now and you can see Putin's response for his country.

I am totally struck by the starkness of his office!

Two flags behind him.

This extremely plain looking desk with seemingly just two (!) items on it!

Vinny

Putin’ everything in its place.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:46 pm If you can put on C-Span now and you can see Putin's response for his country.

I am totally struck by the starkness of his office!

Two flags behind him.

This extremely plain looking desk with seemingly just two (!) items on it!

Vinny

What is he responding to for Russia? Can you superchat him? Tell him I'm irresponsibly enjoying vodka made from Russian steppe wheat and glacier water.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:46 pm ...C-Span ...Putin

What is he responding to for Russia? Can you superchat him? Tell him I'm irresponsibly enjoying vodka made from Russian steppe wheat and glacier water.

On PBS, they showed Russians goofing around and semi-pretending that vodka will help treat them for the virus.
I thought of Ad Orientem, because the Church refuses to close. So they've got people amassing for...Mass. They're way too confident over there.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:07 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:46 pm ...C-Span ...Putin

What is he responding to for Russia? Can you superchat him? Tell him I'm irresponsibly enjoying vodka made from Russian steppe wheat and glacier water.

On PBS, they showed Russians goofing around and semi-pretending that vodka will help treat them for the virus.
I thought of Ad Orientem, because the Church refuses to close. So they've got people amassing for...Mass. They're way too confident over there.

Pffftttttt, I'll bet vodka DOES kill viruses. Make sure to gargle.

In related news, Smithers, download Metro 2033 and do pushups and situps at every chapter change for a solid quarantine workout.

It does make for a nice mouthwash base because it kills bacteria. There was a lady who wanted to get rid of all the plastic in her house, so she made a recipe for it. It's probably out there.

I'm sure it's been Pinned.

I have been trying to wrap my head around numbers, and this one (from Denninger) stood out. Why are the hospitals swamped at this level of death?
-------------------------------
There have been 6,820 deaths allegedly from (really "with") Coronavirus in Italy.

Italy isn't lying, right -- we can trust those numbers (unlike Iran.)

This is the poster child for America, and specifically NY and CA. It is informing our response. It is a horrible, frightening scenario and one we must avoid, therefore we are locking down cities, claiming "major disaster" status and all sorts of other things.

Ok.

Fact: 633,000 people died in Italy in 2018.

So Coronavirus, in the worst-hit Western nation in the world, has managed to kill about 1% as many people as die on an ordinary basis in Italy -- and that assumes that Coronavirus actually caused all those deaths (hint: it didn't.)

Let's further assume before this is over that number doubles.

So Coronavirus will have killed two percent of all the people who die from all causes in Italy over a year's time.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm

Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:40 am Apologies if this has been posted already, but here's a (potential) positive development:

A recent Oxford study estimates more than half of the UK has already been infected. That sounds bad, but (if true) is actually great news:

According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

That doesn't fix the hospital crush in places like NY, but it does invalidate the worst-case models based on a much higher morbidity rates. And it would also mean that many people are already immune and just don't know it.

Not sure how they figured that, but if true it would be awesome.

Good news -- It looks like they'll be able to measure it very soon. The UK is about to release a cheap, fast, at-home antibody test.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/gam ... 54dyy.html

Here's How Amazon Says You Should Handle Packages to Prevent the Spread of Coronavirus

https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/heres-ho ... id=sf01001

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:44 pm Here's How Amazon Says You Should Handle Packages to Prevent the Spread of Coronavirus

https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/heres-ho ... id=sf01001

See! That's what I've been doing. And I figured it out on my own.

Vladimir Putin gives Russia a week off work after the country sees biggest spike in coronavirus infections, with 163 new cases and two more deaths


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... mailonline

Mark Cuban says how companies treat workers during pandemic could define brand ‘for decades’


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronav ... -work.html

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:50 pm I have been trying to wrap my head around numbers, and this one (from Denninger) stood out. Why are the hospitals swamped at this level of death?
-------------------------------
There have been 6,820 deaths allegedly from (really "with") Coronavirus in Italy.

Italy isn't lying, right -- we can trust those numbers (unlike Iran.)

This is the poster child for America, and specifically NY and CA. It is informing our response. It is a horrible, frightening scenario and one we must avoid, therefore we are locking down cities, claiming "major disaster" status and all sorts of other things.

Ok.

Fact: 633,000 people died in Italy in 2018.

So Coronavirus, in the worst-hit Western nation in the world, has managed to kill about 1% as many people as die on an ordinary basis in Italy -- and that assumes that Coronavirus actually caused all those deaths (hint: it didn't.)

Let's further assume before this is over that number doubles.

So Coronavirus will have killed two percent of all the people who die from all causes in Italy over a year's time.

Comparing yearly with less than a month's worth of data, ignoring the growth rate?

How one might look at it differently.

So, in 2018, 1,743 deaths per day.

One death / day death attributed to Coronavirus starting ~Feb 21st
One month later, over 750 in a day
Looks to be averaging over 600 / day since then

So, over a third of the prior daily death rate from one new cause.
Plus others possibly dying because they can't get the care they need.
After major efforts to reduce spread.

Doesn't seem minor to me.

What would the count be without those measures to reduce the spread?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:50 pm I have been trying to wrap my head around numbers, and this one (from Denninger) stood out. Why are the hospitals swamped at this level of death?

Because for every coronavirus death, there are many more coronavirus hospitalizations.

The hospitalizations are what’s swamping the hospitals, not just the deaths.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:32 am

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:50 pm I have been trying to wrap my head around numbers, and this one (from Denninger) stood out. Why are the hospitals swamped at this level of death?

Because for every coronavirus death, there are many more coronavirus hospitalizations.

The hospitalizations are what’s swamping the hospitals, not just the deaths.

Oh yeah, that too. Currently close to 3,500 serious or critical in Italy.

And I'm sure more in hospital from Coronavirus than that

Just found this suit with US numbers (didn't see it mentioned before, assuming no typos in my search):

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

Can download raw data if want to play with it yourself (I haven't tried / looked at that).

I don't think this link has been posted yet:

https://inside.mountsinai.org/blog/moun ... -patients/

The first paragraph reads:

The Mount Sinai Health System this week plans to initiate a procedure known as plasmapheresis, where the antibodies from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 will be transferred into critically ill patients with the disease, with the expectation that the antibodies will neutralize it.

barrett wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:22 am I don't think this link has been posted yet:

https://inside.mountsinai.org/blog/moun ... -patients/

The first paragraph reads:

The Mount Sinai Health System this week plans to initiate a procedure known as plasmapheresis, where the antibodies from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 will be transferred into critically ill patients with the disease, with the expectation that the antibodies will neutralize it.

I'd heard that someone was doing that but didn't have the details. Thanks!

Neat, Barrett.
—

Jerome Powell’s hair is looking bushy this morning. My wife is getting better at using clippers. Is that what you guys are doing, using clippers at home?

My nearly-70 neighbor likes to text with me. She said we’re about two weeks from knowing every woman’s true hair color.

About three years ago, I got tired of trying to find barbers in whatever random country I was in - and then getting either some version of the local haircut or whatever they assumed an American should look like. So, I've been carrying hair cutting scissors for a while now and can give myself a reliably mediocre haircut that is pretty passable. So that has been working out well.

The trick is to do almost all of the cutting with thinning shears and then do only the bangs and borders with regular scissors. That way, no single cut screws you up.

It took me forever to find a set of professional hair cutting scissors that could pass TSA. I finally ended up buying dog-grooming scissors that are targeted for small dogs. Blades less than 2 inches and rounded tips to avoid accidentally stabbing the dog. As a bonus, they came with a great metal comb!

And, BTW, the haircut in my passport photo avatar was after an unfortunate weekend in San Diego where the barber assumed that I was military - and acted accordingly...

That’s funny. Those are military sides in the avatar photo. All you need is the beret.
Dog grooming scissors!
For those of us thinning on top, the secret is to cut the top a little choppy. You get better coverage that way.