Gyroscopic Investing

I know that picture is in jest, and it’s funny, but it eerily reminds me of citizens reporting each other in 1984.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:33 pm There's a drive-in theater in my city that's still open during this lockdown.

Next date idea confirmed.

Separate vehicles only I presume!

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:56 pm I know that picture is in jest, and it’s funny, but it eerily reminds me of citizens reporting each other in 1984.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtzS93HDQeE



Vinny

Haven’t you always wished for a fever map from smart thermometers?
(Sorry Smithers and others, it’s a U.S. map)
https://healthweather.us/
(Fevers, not all Covid19 of course)

Some companies are asking drivers to stay in their trucks or to not use their bathroom. Some drivers are turning down deliveries to states such as Washington or New York that are coronavirus hot spots.
— WSJ, ‘ Grocers Stopped Stockpiling Food. Then Came Coronavirus.’

Can you imagine being a truck driver, bringing food to a grocer and then being denied a bathroom?
Maybe it’s the suppliers and not the receivers who are doing that. Still.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:20 pm Some companies are asking drivers to stay in their trucks or to not use their bathroom. Some drivers are turning down deliveries to states such as Washington or New York that are coronavirus hot spots.
— WSJ, ‘ Grocers Stopped Stockpiling Food. Then Came Coronavirus.’

Can you imagine being a truck driver, bringing food to a grocer and then being denied a bathroom?
Maybe it’s the suppliers and not the receivers who are doing that. Still.

If I had to go to the bathroom after a long trip, and they said I couldn't use their bathroom, I'd just go on the side of the building (if you gotta go you gotta go). Then refuse to deliver to them anymore. So, I guess I'd behave exactly like these guys are. Very unimaginative

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:10 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:20 pm Some companies are asking drivers to stay in their trucks or to not use their bathroom. Some drivers are turning down deliveries to states such as Washington or New York that are coronavirus hot spots.
— WSJ, ‘ Grocers Stopped Stockpiling Food. Then Came Coronavirus.’

Can you imagine being a truck driver, bringing food to a grocer and then being denied a bathroom?
Maybe it’s the suppliers and not the receivers who are doing that. Still.

If I had to go to the bathroom after a long trip, and they said I couldn't use their bathroom, I'd just go on the side of the building (if you gotta go you gotta go). Then refuse to deliver to them anymore. So, I guess I'd behave exactly like these guys are. Very unimaginative

What if it's #2? :-O

Then you pop a squat!

For mathematics, 1666 was the Annus Mirabilis (“wonderous year”). For the rest of humanity, it was pretty terrible. The plague once again burnt across Europe [1]. Cambridge University closed its doors and Issac Newton moved home.
. . .
With nothing better to do while quarantined at the family home, Newton settled back into the study of math and physics and, it turns out, ignited several world-changing revolutions in the process. Newton cracked open a 1000 page notebook he had inherited from his stepfather and got to work, recording his thoughts as he went. After reading Euclid’s Elements (still the gold standard after nearly 2,000 years!), Descartes, and the other books he had on hand, Newton began posing ever harder questions for himself which he then solved, inventing new math along the way.

[1] The plague hit London no less than six times between 1563 and 1665, killing 10-30% of the population each time. The horror of it is unimaginable.
link

The part about Descartes and Fermat threw me, I thought the Arabs invented algebra, or at least kept the knowledge alive while Europe was Dark Aging it?

After all, it was only thirty years earlier that Descartes and Fermat had introduced the notion of using letters (like x and y) for unknowns

I think you’re right. You can tell what we borrowed from the Arabs:
Algebra
Alcohol //but not winemaking
and probably
Alchemy

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:13 am I think you’re right. You can tell what we borrowed from the Arabs:
Algebra
Alcohol //but not winemaking
and probably
Alchemy

Also algorithms.

Ah yes, that’s an important one!

coronavirus: Gov. Cuomo just gave a good update on NY state.

I didn’t take notes or anything while watching. If I see a written summary, though, I’ll post it.

Apologies if this has been posted already, but here's a (potential) positive development:

A recent Oxford study estimates more than half of the UK has already been infected. That sounds bad, but (if true) is actually great news:

According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

That doesn't fix the hospital crush in places like NY, but it does invalidate the worst-case models based on a much higher morbidity rates. And it would also mean that many people are already immune and just don't know it.

I just noticed / realized that on my main road -- my street -- which has a 40 mph speed limit - heavily traveled - first road to get snow plowed because it is a main road -- I don't think I've heard or seen a car go by today!

I will pay more attention for the rest of the day!

Vinny

Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:40 am And it would also mean that many people are already immune and just don't know it.

Wouldn't it be great to have a home test to find this out right NOW for yourself and your family!

My thoughts range from this is overblown and Trump will be right to we're screwed and my extended family is going to die. And this changes hourly.

Either way, the effect on the economy is huge. PP seems to be weathering it so far, after a >10% downdraft on 3/19 (6 days, seems like a year) after close today if things continue I will be back even.

It also means that CV is HELLA contagious!

What am I missing here?

I am listening to the Republican senators speak about this new bill.

ALL the politicians are ALWAYS speaking about how great EVERY single American is.

They are saying that they believe there was a mistake in the drafting of the bill.

They are constantly using as an example someone who in South Carolina who is normally getting paid $600 to work would collect a maximum of $326 under the existing South Carolina system.

Now as written under the new bill they'd get that $326 plus $600 form the bill for a total of $926.

They are stating that who is going to go back to work when they can collect more by NOT working?

Whatever happened to ALL our EVERY single GREAT Americans??!!!

Why wouldn't they ALL continue to put country ahead of themselves? Or, maybe every single American is not as great as the politicians are constantly spouting?

Finally, why doesn't the federal government just provide support to each state's current unemployment system? Is that just way too simple a solution?

They are terrified of incentivizing not working and severing the employee / employer relationship. Do the current state unemployment systems do this? If not, just support each state's unemployment system!

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:09 pm It also means that CV is HELLA contagious!

It would mean it's contagious, but with vanishingly small odds of there being any negative effects. I'll take that.

Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:40 am Apologies if this has been posted already, but here's a (potential) positive development:

A recent Oxford study estimates more than half of the UK has already been infected. That sounds bad, but (if true) is actually great news:

According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

That doesn't fix the hospital crush in places like NY, but it does invalidate the worst-case models based on a much higher morbidity rates. And it would also mean that many people are already immune and just don't know it.

Not sure how they figured that, but if true it would be awesome. I have noticed that the percentage of cases requiring hospitalizations in NY state dropped dramatically after the state ramped up testing, from 15% last week to 3% of active cases this AM. That's a very big difference. Early on, projections were around 20% or more requiring hospitalization.

Andrew Cuomo gives morning briefings daily at 10:30 am, which you can pick up on youtube. Highly recommended. He includes daily numbers that I've been tracking - they are actually way more useful than the data on the JHU website. In addition to the above, I've noted that the rate of new cases (as a percentage of total cases) has begun to slow (31% -> 26% -> 18% -> 16% today), indicating that we are moving away from an exponential increase closer to linear. Also good news.

I also think it will not be as bad in most areas of the country as it is in NYC. In NYC, many people spend a bit of every day packed into subway cars, elevators, buses, and trains like sardines, and they spend much more time in public spaces like parks, the sidewalk etc. In this respect we are similar to Italy where people aren't much into "personal space" - in fact, NYC's cultural heritage IS in no small part from Italy. That is not how it is in most places. It's not surprising that a bug like this would spread like wildfire here.

Dieter wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:00 pm https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... -countries

Why Germany’s Coronavirus Death Rate is Far Lower than in Other Countries

Is it because they’re the Master Race? Oh, I see it:

because of his country's ability to test early and often.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm I also think it will not be as bad in most areas of the country as it is in NYC. In NYC, many people spend a bit of every day packed into subway cars, elevators, buses, and trains like sardines, and they spend much more time in public spaces like parks, the sidewalk etc. In this respect we are similar to Italy where people aren't much into "personal space" - in fact, NYC's cultural heritage IS in no small part from Italy. That is not how it is in most places. It's not surprising that a bug like this would spread like wildfire here.

Sometimes small town livin pays off.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:16 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm I also think it will not be as bad in most areas of the country as it is in NYC. In NYC, many people spend a bit of every day packed into subway cars, elevators, buses, and trains like sardines, and they spend much more time in public spaces like parks, the sidewalk etc. In this respect we are similar to Italy where people aren't much into "personal space" - in fact, NYC's cultural heritage IS in no small part from Italy. That is not how it is in most places. It's not surprising that a bug like this would spread like wildfire here.

Sometimes small town livin pays off.

Somewhere here today I stated that our county is about 800 square miles with a population of about 71,000. I live on 0.40 acre plot of land. Maybe average or on the small side for this neighborhood. Little public transportation aside from some buses. Almost all of us get around via our cars.

Where WiseOne lives there are 27,000 people per square mile??!! Roughly 300 times as dense as where I live? (Just doing rough calculations in my head..)


Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:24 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:16 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm I also think it will not be as bad in most areas of the country as it is in NYC. In NYC, many people spend a bit of every day packed into subway cars, elevators, buses, and trains like sardines, and they spend much more time in public spaces like parks, the sidewalk etc. In this respect we are similar to Italy where people aren't much into "personal space" - in fact, NYC's cultural heritage IS in no small part from Italy. That is not how it is in most places. It's not surprising that a bug like this would spread like wildfire here.

Sometimes small town livin pays off.

Somewhere here today I stated that our county is about 800 square miles with a population of about 71,000. I live on 0.40 acre plot of land. Maybe average or on the small side for this neighborhood. Little public transportation aside from some buses. Almost all of us get around via our cars.

Where WiseOne lives there are 27,000 people per square mile??!! Roughly 300 times as dense as where I live? (Just doing rough calculations in my head..)


Vinny

I don't know the size of my county but the 2010 census showed it as having 35k people. I think it's probably gone up quite a bit since then, based on the traffic.

We live on 6 1/2 acres, which is pretty average for our "neighborhood" as far as I know. No public transportation of any kind.