Re: Stocks Crashing! Thank God For The PP!!
Posted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:30 pm
Permanent Portfolio Forum
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/
https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8071
Cortopassi, $3 million in investments is a significant sum, but doesn't tell us much about their living expenses.Cortopassi wrote: Honestly, what is best suited to my personality would be 100% in a 5% yielding money market, which we may not see again until long after I'm retired.
I have done enough with Tyler's charts to convince me I need to up my equity to try and capture some more CAGR in the 13-17 years I have until retirement. I'm the first to say the future is unknowable and I should not be taking the historical chart returns as a sure thing. However, I am at the point where if I don't do this, and stick to 25% allocations I am at point A (4.8 CAGR per Tyler's latest) and point B with the Cortopassi Prosperity Tilt (6.2% CAGR)
If I retire in 15 years, that's 2x my money with the PP and 2.5x with the modified.
Not as much difference as I'd like but at the levels I am talking about, extra $$ in retirement will help more than less $$ will hurt. At least that's what I think, assuming there is still a social security safety net.
Lady in the office and her husband are 2 years from retirement. Have 3 million in investments. Obviously invested their money wisely. Even with a 2.5x return and continuing the insane savings rate I do right now, it is nearly impossible for me to ever get to that level. I will be lucky to retire with half that amount in investment accounts. Not shabby, but I will beat myself up again here, it should have been a shitload more were it not for 25 years of stupidity on my part thinking I could beat the system.
The shock at that -9.3% number, imagining it in my account right now, will certainly keep me to a blended/<40% stock allocation!buddtholomew wrote: For reference, 70/30 -9.3% YTD, PP+Cash -.5%, blended -4.5 and S&P500 -8.6%
Gotcha. In CA, couldn't retire comfortably on less than 4 million in my opinion. I'm sure others have retired with substantially less depending on expenses.Cortopassi wrote:The shock at that -9.3% number, imagining it in my account right now, will certainly keep me to a blended/<40% stock allocation!buddtholomew wrote: For reference, 70/30 -9.3% YTD, PP+Cash -.5%, blended -4.5 and S&P500 -8.6%
The living expenses of my colleague are minimal, which is one of the reasons they were able to save so much.
+1.IDrinkBloodLOL wrote: If you want out of the rat race bad enough, you can get your expenses down pretty far.
$4 million? You gotta be kidding me... that's only $160k/year which wouldn't even cover my dog's therapist.buddtholomew wrote:Gotcha. In CA, couldn't retire comfortably on less than 4 million in my opinion. I'm sure others have retired with substantially less depending on expenses.Cortopassi wrote:The shock at that -9.3% number, imagining it in my account right now, will certainly keep me to a blended/<40% stock allocation!buddtholomew wrote: For reference, 70/30 -9.3% YTD, PP+Cash -.5%, blended -4.5 and S&P500 -8.6%
The living expenses of my colleague are minimal, which is one of the reasons they were able to save so much.
I assume you have read http://www.amazon.com/Early-Retirement- ... 145360121XIDrinkBloodLOL wrote:The wife and I want to live like absolute Spartans and get out as early as humanly possible. Trailer, cheap land, thrift stores, food in bulk. First get out, then let luxuries come as the portfolio grows. If I'd known at 16 what I know now, I'd have been out for 10 years already.Tyler wrote: But everyone's preferences are different, and mix in family and I understand it gets complicated. Everything has a tradeoff.
Perspectives differ. I haven't driven a car (except short-term rentals when traveling outside of New York City) for 25 years.var wrote: depends on your wife spending habits...
but i think 4 million my number.... it really depends where you live... car you want to drive etc..
I think I stopped in 1989. Almost exactly the same time frame.goodasgold wrote: Perspectives differ. I haven't driven a car (except short-term rentals when traveling outside of New York City) for 25 years.
My impression is that he is a vampire with Tourette Syndrome, so everyone please be sensitive.TennPaGa wrote:A couple of off-topic questions...IDrinkBloodLOL wrote:
- Do you really? (drink blood)
- Do you really? (laugh out loud while partaking)
It's interesting how her work reminds me of what Harry Browne was doing in the early 1970s.Desert wrote: As long as we're off topic and off-color, I'll post this humorous little article here. It's about a book called "The Life Changing Magic of Not Giving a F*&k."
Warning, it contains the very scary "f" word.
http://idealog.co.nz/workplace/2016/01/ ... iving-fuck
Maybe she should have caller her book: How I Found Freedom by Not Giving a Fuck.When did you realise that you gave too much of a fuck, or gave too many fucks?
There was a period of eight or nine years between the time I got married and the time I really started advancing in my career and then last summer, after eight years of consideration, I decided to leave my corporate career, which was 15 years in the making.
The fucks that I gave in regards to planning my wedding were very much family oriented and the fucks that I gave in regards to my career were very much work orientated. That's how I came up with my four categories of fuck giving. I realised that it's a lot easier to start with inanimate objects, then the workplace and then move your way to friends and then family, which is a lot harder.