Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:01 pm**

there were not many around continuously so i would really have to research it but it also tends to be manager sensitive and when the manager goes the clients tend to go so it would hard to follow that far back since the clients tend to switch funds ..

indexing was very different too . the more that jump on the bandwagon the more over valued the same stocks become and the easier it is to find value elsewhere . almost over overwhelmingly all fidelity's large cap stocks had no trouble beating the s&p 500 the last 6 out of 7 years with this year being another landslide .

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/ ... DF20140128

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:11 pm**

Interesting. You never want to go into a crowded trade. I'll have to look into this more more. BTW, this is one of the many constraints for why it is difficult for Wall Street to outperform long-term:

Fidelity and OppenheimerFunds have said they want their portfolio managers to pick stocks while keeping a sharp eye on tracking error, which measures the volatility of a portfolio's returns relative to its benchmark.

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:13 pm**

there are only a few funds i ever owned long term . when the big picture shifts , or managers change the funds eventually get swapped . nothing is the best choice forever

Posted: **Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:35 pm**

Back on topic, what's today's YTD according to the Chinese calendar?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:23 am**

PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:32 am**

buddtholomew wrote: PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

I suppose this means you are down 0.0004% again for the year..?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:44 am**

buddtholomew wrote: PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

So Budd, are you totally out of it? If so, how are you investing?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:11 am**

Reub wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.
So Budd, are you totally out of it? If so, how are you investing?

LTT gains offset gold losses and I am now 30/70 stocks/bonds,cash

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:42 am**

buddtholomew wrote: PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

Er, haven't you had PP angst a lot more recently than six months ago? Was it still upsetting you after you got out or do I have the timeframe wrong?

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:26 pm**

I began selling GLD in retirement accounts and exchanged the assets for international. I am now 60/40 US/INT. Just recently I have been selling GLD and TLT in taxable to offset losses and gains respectively.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:39 pm**

buddtholomew wrote: PP is a horrible portfolio. Made the changes 6 months ago and couldn't be happier.

Any positive historical performance is due to luck. What a waste of time and energy.

such heresy ! .... someone wash his hands with soap for typing such blather . lol

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:46 pm**

If it makes you feel better, I say good for you! This isn't an inquisition.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:01 pm**

Budd's a great contrarian indicator.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:54 pm**

I still have all assets, but in different proportions than the conventional 4x25 allocation. I hold more stocks and cash with significantly less gold. I am now 52.5/40/7.5 stocks/bonds+cash/gold. I benefited entirely from the 2009-current rise in equities and offset gains in LTT's with losses in gold.

As for being a contrarian indicator, so be it. I allocated away from gold into more stocks and bonds/cash.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:15 pm**

buddtholomew wrote: I am now 52.5/50/7.5 stocks/bonds+cash/gold.

Ah, the 110% portfolio! That should do well.

Seriously, Budd, I hope your new allocation gives you peace of mind. This place isn't meant to be a groupthink hangout. If your remaining gold does well, you'll still have way more than most investors. If it stinks up the place, well it's only a small part of your holdings. I think ideally most people want to be invested in a way that doesn't have them on edge all the time.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:18 pm**

barrett wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: I am now 52.5/50/7.5 stocks/bonds+cash/gold.
Ah, the 110% portfolio! That should do well.

Seriously, Budd, I hope your new allocation gives you peace of mind. This place isn't meant to be a groupthink hangout. If your remaining gold does well, you'll still have way more than most investors. If it stinks up the place, well it's only a small part of your holdings. I think ideally most people want to be invested in a way that doesn't have them on edge all the time.

Thanks for catching the typo, 40% in bonds and cash. Yeah, I feel its the best of all worlds and now I can worry about stocks for a bit instead of gold :-)

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:23 pm**

Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:42 pm**

Cortopassi wrote: Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!

Here's the thing, I already exchanged GLD for SPY when it was trading at 189/share. That's a 10%+ return since that purchase instead of a 2-3% loss in gold. I would rather accept the volatility in stocks and re-balance than have false expectations that gold will buoy the portfolio when equities and/or bonds decline. The insurance is not worth the cost especially when there is no guarantee of a payout. It's like having earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible. You're paying premiums year after year and only if there is a catastrophe are you made whole. An earthquake in the 4-5 range and you're still out of pocket for premiums and to rebuild.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:43 pm**

you are sounding like me now . i hope i didn't influence you .

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:46 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: you are sounding like me now . i hope i didn't influence you .

No, not consciously

I saw the opportunity to divest out of gold and decided it was time.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:07 pm**

buddtholomew wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!
Here's the thing, I already exchanged GLD for SPY when it was trading at 189/share. That's a 10%+ return since that purchase instead of a 2-3% loss in gold. I would rather accept the volatility in stocks and rebalance than have false expectations that gold will buoy the portfolio when equities and/or bonds decline. The insurance is not worth the cost especially when there is no guarantee of a payout. It's like having earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible. You're paying premiums year after year and only if there is a catastrophe are you made whole. An earthquake in the 4-5 range and you're still out of pocket for premiums and to rebuild.

Unlike stock and bonds, you do get something tangible for your money that would come in handy in the real world in a loss of confidence scenario. What good are electrons??? Insurance is only as good as its ability to be there for you when you need it.

That being said, if you need more growth, the PP certainly isn't the best vehicle.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:25 pm**

MachineGhost wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Yeah, nothing at all to worry about there...!
Here's the thing, I already exchanged GLD for SPY when it was trading at 189/share. That's a 10%+ return since that purchase instead of a 2-3% loss in gold. I would rather accept the volatility in stocks and rebalance than have false expectations that gold will buoy the portfolio when equities and/or bonds decline. The insurance is not worth the cost especially when there is no guarantee of a payout. It's like having earthquake insurance with a 10% deductible. You're paying premiums year after year and only if there is a catastrophe are you made whole. An earthquake in the 4-5 range and you're still out of pocket for premiums and to rebuild.
Unlike stock and bonds, you do get something tangible for your money that would come in handy in the real world in a loss of confidence scenario. What good are electrons??? Insurance is only as good as its ability to be there for you when you need it.

That being said, if you need more growth, the PP certainly isn't the best vehicle.

Agreed. I am slowly transitioning away from GLD to physical gold for such a scenario.

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:43 pm**

MachineGhost wrote: Budd's a great contrarian indicator.

ha ha ha , now i am thinking of buying gld if budds getting out .

Posted: **Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:12 pm**

mathjak107 wrote:
MachineGhost wrote: Budd's a great contrarian indicator.
ha ha ha , now i am thinking of buying gld if budds getting out .

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:46 am**

gold is still falling as of this morning . guess it wasn't going to change with budd selling after all .

damn , with bud selling i thought if i now bought i would be on my way to riches .

Gyroscopic Investing

PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD

Re: PP is once again positive YTD