The S&P 500 Has Peaked for 2011

Post by **dualstow** » Thu May 05, 2011 2:54 pm

MediumTex wrote: Note to Subscribers:

I turned my tractor beam back on.

Hah. Just keep that treasury solar sail going.

Post by **MediumTex** » Thu May 05, 2011 2:57 pm

dualstow wrote:
MediumTex wrote: Note to Subscribers:

I turned my tractor beam back on.
Hah. Just keep that treasury solar sail going.

I put a new EDV-configured flux capacitor in the treasury solar sail a while back, and it's running pretty good.

murphy_p_t · Post by **murphy_p_t** » Thu May 05, 2011 3:16 pm

thinkinkg about beefing up edv myself..

AdamA · Post by **AdamA** » Thu May 05, 2011 3:34 pm

murphy_p_t wrote: thinkinkg about beefing up edv myself..

Zero coupons torture me.

If there is any part of the portfolio I am tempted to tinker with, it's the bond portion. Zeros in a Roth would get rid of the tax problems, and I have a strong gut feeling that interest rates are gonna get much lower...

I'm not going to tinker with my PP nor am I going to buy Zeros in a VP, but I might have to join Tinkerers Anonymous to avoid it.

Post by **MediumTex** » Thu May 05, 2011 3:40 pm

Since I'm a bit of a glass-half-empty guy myself, zero coupon bonds make me feel warm and cozy.

But I use them all the time. I don't chase them.

Whatever you do, don't chase bond returns (or any other returns for that matter).

moda0306 · Post by **moda0306** » Thu May 05, 2011 3:48 pm

Is there a good source of daily "effective rate" of zero's?

Post by **MediumTex** » Thu May 05, 2011 4:13 pm

moda0306 wrote: Is there a good source of daily "effective rate" of zero's?

I don't understand the question.

moda0306 · Post by **moda0306** » Thu May 05, 2011 4:15 pm

Don't zero coupon bonds have an effective interest rate based on their price, maturity, etc? Is there somewhere that the effective rate is made available?

Post by **MediumTex** » Thu May 05, 2011 4:17 pm

Normally, the rate is the same as on a coupon bond of similar duration, it's just that the coupon payments are all paid at the end rather than along the way.

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 6:01 pm

Lone Wolf wrote: Why oh why is Fight Club not on Netflix streaming?

Oh, and if anyone else would like to feel really old with me, can you believe that came out 12 years ago?

LOL - my friend just had a baby boy and named him Tyler Durden X (X=last name) ... I was like - wtf?!?! The funny thing is that if I ever meet his kid in real life, I'm probably gonna be thinking about zerohedge.

What a great movie.

Post by **MediumTex** » Sun Jun 19, 2011 10:33 pm

Storm wrote:
Lone Wolf wrote: Why oh why is Fight Club not on Netflix streaming?

Oh, and if anyone else would like to feel really old with me, can you believe that came out 12 years ago?
LOL - my friend just had a baby boy and named him Tyler Durden X (X=last name) ... I was like - wtf?!?! The funny thing is that if I ever meet his kid in real life, I'm probably gonna be thinking about zerohedge.

What a great movie.

It's funny, but I will occasionally see references to zerohedge stories in other media outlets and they will refer to a story by "Tyler Durden" apparently without realizing that isn't his real name.

Post by **dualstow** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 9:19 pm

What a week for the S&P! I was having fun watching the treasuries, but I'll be happy to see the solar sail sink if the (stock) tractor beam is truly off. We'll see. 1339.

Post by **MediumTex** » Fri Jul 01, 2011 10:18 pm

dualstow wrote: What a week for the S&P! I was having fun watching the treasuries, but I'll be happy to see the solar sail sink if the (stock) tractor beam is truly off. We'll see. 1339.

I hope it is off. I would be happy to find that my intuition was wrong.

We'll see what happens.

A QE3 announcement would probably push it through 1400.

Post by **dualstow** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 10:02 am

Clive wrote: I'll predict 14000 Dow, 1500 S&P 2011 year end

I love you, sir.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 2:56 pm

dualstow wrote:
Clive wrote: I'll predict 14000 Dow, 1500 S&P 2011 year end
I love you, sir.

PP returns may not be as impressive with the DOW at 14000 and S&P at 1500. PP returns will be highly dependent on the performance of GLD and TLT over this time period.

AdamA · Post by **AdamA** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:20 pm

buddtholomew wrote: PP returns may not be as impressive with the DOW at 14000 and S&P at 1500. PP returns will be highly dependent on the performance of GLD and TLT over this time period.

Yes, and also SPY and SHV.

Post by **dualstow** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 5:54 pm

buddtholomew wrote: PP returns may not be as impressive with the DOW at 14000 and S&P at 1500. PP returns will be highly dependent on the performance of GLD and TLT over this time period.

True, but my variable portfolio is still larger than my pp, which is in stocks.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:33 pm

dualstow wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: PP returns may not be as impressive with the DOW at 14000 and S&P at 1500. PP returns will be highly dependent on the performance of GLD and TLT over this time period.
True, but my variable portfolio is still larger than my pp, which is in stocks.

My VP is also substantially larger than my PP, although it is invested 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income. The VP is invested in 401K and TIRA vehicles, with SPY, GLD, TLT and Cash held in a taxable account.

Post by **MediumTex** » Mon Jan 30, 2012 10:37 pm

I forgot to post on this prediction closer to the end of the year, but it turned out pretty well.

My prediction in March of 2011 was that the S&P 500 wouldn't go higher than 1332 from the date of the OP.

It went a little higher, but not much, before heading back down and it never got within striking distance of 1332 for the rest of 2011.

Post by **dualstow** » Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:27 pm

Incredibly accurate stock tractor beam, MT!
I'm getting used to the treasury solar sail. Never really had trouble with my initial long bond purchases, and every time I start to feel reluctant to spend new cash, bonds have another up day.

http://www.google.com/finance/chart?cht ... hy&tlf=12h

The S&P 500 Has Peaked for 2011

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