Gyroscopic Investing

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:38 am Another TP note that I don’t think I read at this forum: there was an article that said while there is no shortage, it’s hard to keep in stock simply because it takes up so much damn space.

Italy does have a lot of smokers and that of course makes them more susceptible to respiratory diseases, but what is the smoking-lactose/vit D connection?

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:11 am I haven’t read all 7 pages but I will make a quick comment that yes, anti price gouging laws lead to shortages because people hoard during a panic when their demand rises but supply remains the same. Raising prices forces consumers to really think about how much TP they need of its $10 a roll, and they only buy exactly what they need.

What about the poor people? Surely, raising the price of TP to $10 a roll benefits the wealthy and alienates the poor who can’t afford it? Well, those poor people are working two to three minimum wage jobs and are too busy to drive around town all day looking for Whatever TP is left unlike the suburban housewife or middle class employee who can leave work early and take a sick day To drive around town, so there’s no TP left for poor people even if you didn’t raise prices because the middle and upper class have more time and cash to buy it all up.

Anyone who disagrees with this is an idiot. Sorry to be so blunt but I’ve had this conversation with many people over the years and I am the evil MBA who wants rich fat cat CEOs of businesses to make a profit during times of crisis. When I bring up Venezuela demanding price ceilings to avoid the realty of hyperinflation from mass printing Bolivares lead to country-wide shortages of everything, well... that’s not their Socialism. That’s the bad kind of socialism. Their socialism, also with price ceilings would be better.

I used to see this in hurricane country where I grew up as a child where all of the plywood and gasoline would run out because hardware stores and gas stations weren’t allowed to raise prices. Rather than measure your actual house for how much plywood you need, people just buy all of it since it’s so cheap and only the first 10% of people showing up to the hardware store get to buy any.

The best part is the media and government blaming the hoarders. Well the supply chain is fine and anti-price gouging policy works if not for those evil hoarders acting with economic rationality in times of Crisis.

Hey politicians, maybe don’t design a system that only works if people act irrationally — In this case, it would be irrational not to buy extra TP if prices don’t rise in response to demand. I guess socialism would work too if everyone maxed out their efforts in spite of shared returns. All of these government systems would work great if all of the citizens acted appropriately and if the political leaders did not become corrupt.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:47 am "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride."

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:38 am Italy does have a lot of smokers and that of course makes them more susceptible to respiratory diseases, but what is the smoking-lactose/vit D connection?

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:38 am Another TP note that I don’t think I read at this forum: there was an article that said while there is no shortage, it’s hard to keep in stock simply because it takes up so much damn space.

1. Spike in consumer TP demand due to less commercial TP being used at work, schools, and other public places and more consumer TP being used at home
2. Stockpiling of consumer TP due to a perceived shortage, caused by widely propagated images of empty TP shelves in the first weeks of the pandemic caused by #1
3. Relatively limited TP supply in each store due to very bulky size of TP packages
4. Some stores not yet limiting consumer TP purchases to one package per customer
5. Most stores not raising the price on consumer TP to achieve supply/demand equilibrium

Tortoise wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:41 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:38 am Another TP note that I don’t think I read at this forum: there was an article that said while there is no shortage, it’s hard to keep in stock simply because it takes up so much damn space.

Good point. So, to summarize the various factors contributing to the consumer TP shortage:

1. Spike in consumer TP demand due to less commercial TP being used at work, schools, and other public places and more consumer TP being used at home
2. Stockpiling of consumer TP due to a perceived shortage, caused by widely propagated images of empty TP shelves in the first weeks of the pandemic caused by #1
3. Relatively limited TP supply in each store due to very bulky size of TP packages
4. Some stores not yet limiting consumer TP purchases to one package per customer
5. Most stores not raising the price on consumer TP to achieve supply/demand equilibrium

Did I miss any other important factors, or does that about cover it?

Xan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:37 pm I think a demand spike would also have been caused by people deciding to go to the store less frequently, all at the same time.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:40 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:37 pm I think a demand spike would also have been caused by people deciding to go to the store less frequently, all at the same time.

Yes, but that spike would have lasted at most a week or two.

Pennsylvania’s Liquor Control Board announced March 16 that liquor stores would close the next day. The state hoped to keep residents at home, but instead Pennsylvanians flocked to buy booze while they still could. Lines stretched around the block, and sales spiked to $29.9 million in a single day—“the most spent on booze in Pennsylvania in one day, according to complete sales records dating back 12 years,”

The mayor said not to panic buy, but that is exactly what he encouraged people to do by shutting us down.” Mr. Hancock decided within hours to reverse course and let the liquor stores stay open.

But in Pennsylvania the closures continue. Many residents are now driving to neighboring states to buy alcohol, potentially bringing the virus with them. The Monongalia County Health Department has banned liquor sales to anyone without a West Virginia ID, and Delaware police are pulling over out-of-state drivers and instructing them to go home.

New York City has been wiser and allowed restaurants to offer alcohol for take-out and delivery.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:52 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:17 pm Some booze news:

The wisdom of government just can not be understated.

How do we manage to elect folks who appear clueless about human nature, and hence the unintended consequences of their "guidance"?

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:30 pm Pennsylvania has always been weird about booze.