Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:05 am**

So now gold sold off and undid the gain in Tlt ...we can’t win lol

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:07 am**

mj,

I sort of understand, because that's how I lived my investing career for many years!

But aren't you just causing yourself undue stress?

So your other models on a rolling $ basis are killing the pp right now, but if you are NOT in them, does it matter?

This sounds more like a "If I only bought Amazon in 1999" method of thinking, doesn't it just bug the crap out of you that you've currently made a "wrong" decision?

I would drive myself nuts if I was comparing my current returns to other models I had been in at one point or another.

**And yeah, gold sucks ass right now.** The asset we love to hate.

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:21 am**

And the PP shows it’s true colors.
Bought more IAU at 16.69

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:31 am**

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:07 am mj,

I sort of understand, because that's how I lived my investing career for many years!

But aren't you just causing yourself undue stress?

So your other models on a rolling $ basis are killing the pp right now, but if you are NOT in them, does it matter?

This sounds more like a "If I only bought Amazon in 1999" method of thinking, doesn't it just bug the crap out of you that you've currently made a "wrong" decision?

I would drive myself nuts if I was comparing my current returns to other models I had been in at one point or another.

**And yeah, gold sucks ass right now.** The asset we love to hate.

it is not like should of bought amazon . what i sold were my models for decades i followed and decided to try to protect those wonderful gains with the pp ... it back fired and the pp has turned out to be a crazy ride down.

while it does not matter at this point what the others do as i am not in them it still is important to gauge the pp . so far it just reinforces my feelings that rising rates were going to be the kryptonite to the pp .. but i never expected such a fast , wicked plunge right in to bear markets in gold and bonds

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:07 pm**

Don wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:03 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 11:55 am
Don wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 9:12 am I believe that 1.5% on the ten year is a major résistance level.

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:49 am I also think 1.50% on the ten and 2.25-2.50 on the 30 may take a breather
Why?
Because I heard it mentioned on TV. Lol.

Well you and your TV appear to be very accurate. MJ, too.

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:12 pm**

Lucky guess on the rates ...before I bask in the glory we have to see if rates keep going up ...

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:39 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 9:31 am .. but i never expected such a fast , wicked plunge right in to bear markets in gold and bonds.

Don't beat yourself up. I take full responsibility and should, in good conscience, have warned you all. When I bought 30-years earlier this month, it was certain to happen. I'm frikkin jinxed.

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:31 pm**

Everyone knows the PP has had a 29% max drawdown, right?

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:43 pm**

29% wouldn’t be bad if you get a nice v or u shaped recovery . But gold and interest rates tend to run very long cycles

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:45 pm**

Where are you getting 29%? I haven't seen anything that big in the portfolios history...

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:49 pm**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:43 pm 29% wouldn’t be bad if you get a nice v or u shaped recovery . But gold and interest rates tend to run very long cycles

The frequent reply to this back in the day was, okay, so what other options are there?

I'm literally clueless..and frankly I think so is everyone else

is the 30 year going to 1 percent or 4 percent?

Is the S&P going to 4500 or 2500?

Is gold going to 5000 or 1000?

I can't answer any of those questions....

Hell, I can't even figure out if we are going to have inflation or deflation

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:50 pm**

[deleted]

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:51 pm**

Go back to when gold imploded in the early 80s, it's right there. Of course before that gold had gone vertical for a couple of years.

Investing/trading tip...when something goes vertical on a chart, it NEVER ends well.

Beware annual or monthly smoothing effects. If you don't have daily data you don't know what reality is.

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:46 pm**

Kbg wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:51 pm ..
Beware annual or monthly smoothing effects. If you don't have daily data you don't know what reality is.

ha, contrast this with Bogle’s and Browne’s advice not to look every day or even every month.
i know, I know, you’re talking about determining drawdowns. But still...

Posted: **Fri Feb 26, 2021 10:47 pm**

[deleted]

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:36 am**

Not to hijack mathjak's day trading thread too much but I think Insurance Guy has the right dates for that max drawdown.

kbg, is the 29% real or nominal? I think that IG is correct that it was less than 29% in nominal terms (haven''t looked at the granular data in ages), but we can't forget that inflation was brutal in 1981 & 1982... 10.3% and 6.2% respectively according to this link:

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ion-rates/

So the PP lost tons of purchasing power in that stretch before bouncing back strongly.

Posted: **Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:39 am**

[deleted]

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:42 am**

And the TLT bloodbath continues..premarket down almost 2%.

Hopefully gold and stocks together can stop another day of losses over all.

It has been like running in quick sand

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:39 am**

I remember my friends being shocked at the thought that the 10-year was going (down) to 2%. “No”, I said, “I’m talking about the 30-year.” And here we are a couple-few years later watching that crazy 30-year go *up* past 2%. (2.2% this morning).

ADDED: TLT is ex-dividend today.

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:53 am**

Yes , payable I think the 5th ..but it is down about a whole years worth of interest this morning. Lol

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:22 am**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:53 am Yes , payable I think the 5th ..but it is down about a whole years worth of interest this morning. Lol

You've already forgotten it was up over 3% on Friday. So negative!

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:19 am**

Yep , it is back to selling off .....Tlt is now down 45k for me so that pop was a fart in the wind . Gold down 33500.

So yeah I earned the right to be negative ha ha

I am trying to decide whether to bring Tlt back up or not by adding money ....I am so tired of just throwing more in only to watch it keep plunging ....I will decide later

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:44 am**

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:19 am Yep , it is back to selling off .....Tlt is now down 45k for me so that pop was a fart in the wind . Gold down 33500.

So yeah I earned the right to be negative ha ha

I am trying to decide whether to bring Tlt back up or not by adding money ....I am so tired of just throwing more in only to watch it keep plunging ....I will decide later

I have decided that any more I add only will be if either get low enough to touch bands. I am going to stop doing these interim rebalances. But I did change my rebalance bands to be tighter, +/-20% from the target percentage (20/30% on 25% holdings). I was at +/-40% before (15/35%)

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:48 am**

I agree with your plan .

But the other side of me says that the selling is already likely over done done and way over the top ....and tlt as we know can be explosive both up and down and once the value is equal again to the other assets I have no reason to add anymore dough .

Each 1% move represents a drop of 6300 for me . So to get it back up would require almost another 12k ... I have been doing this for two months now ...

Posted: **Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:24 pm**

Be weary of fighting the last war.
At some point you perhaps have enough in LTT’s and Gold.

If I was in your shoes, I would stand pat and wait until a re-balance band is triggered. You’ve already contributed more money to the lagging asset if/when a rebound occurs will benefit handsomely. No need to catch the exact bottom.

Very nice close in TLT today.

Just my 2c

Gyroscopic Investing

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