Gyroscopic Investing

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:30 pm

stuper1 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:25 pm

flyingpylon wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:13 pm Indiana schools now officially online only through May 1.

But the real tragedy is that the chances of holding the Indy 500 (world's largest single-day sporting event) on May 24 are getting slimmer and slimmer. Realistically they are probably zero, but nothing official yet.

Without looking it up, I would venture to say that the world's largest single day sporting event is a soccer game, either the annual Champions League final in June or the quadrennial World Cup final. This year's Champions League final is in serious doubt currently.

You might want to look it up!

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:46 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:27 pm My apocalypse movies and shows so far (either watched or on the list):

- I am Legend
- Contagion
- Quarantine
- Breaking Bad
- V for Vendetta
- Joker
- Pandemic
- World War Z

For me the big one was Stephen King's The Stand (the book). Also Michael Crichton's The Andromeda Strain.
Neither is great literature, but very relevant.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:22 pm The people who are really on the front lines here: nurses, ER staff, critical care specialists, internal medicine. I'm not any of those. My sister is an ER doc and I know she's a bit scared every time she heads into a shift. She's in a small hospital with very few cases, though...mine has over 200, which is about a quarter of its usual capacity.

Smith1776, your vitamin D story is new to me. I have to say I also think the stuff is a miracle in a jar. I was battling a bad sinus infection once, took a nice big 10,000 IU hit of vitamin D, and it literally dissolved away in about half a day. Incredible. I've even heard the notion floated that the reason flu & colds are so much worse in the winter is that people are indoors and therefore making less vitamin D.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:04 pm I read Station 11 on the recommendation of Tyler Cowen years ago. I didn't think it was good.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:51 pm When you read the book, it becomes apparent that the main character is the bad guy. He's the Dracula of the story, who's been killing the villagers until they finally get him. You don't get that with the movie version.

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
. . .
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.

These “mild” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.

link

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:21 pm

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
. . .
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes. In fact, such “mild” coronaviruses infect tens of millions of people every year, and account for 3% to 11% of those hospitalized in the U.S. with lower respiratory infections each winter.

These “mild” coronaviruses may be implicated in several thousands of deaths every year worldwide, though the vast majority of them are not documented with precise testing. Instead, they are lost as noise among 60 million deaths from various causes every year.

link

The thing I keep thinking of as this goes on is:

"You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds!"

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:11 pm California estimates appx 25 million residents will get covid-19 over the next 8 weeks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/corona ... weeks.html

If that's even close to true, then its pretty much game over. There isn't enough critical care hospital capacity in the entire country to handle 5% of that number. That Chloroquine better come through because this is rapidly starting to look like The Big One.

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:11 pm California estimates appx 25 million residents will get covid-19 over the next 8 weeks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/corona ... weeks.html

If that's even close to true, then its pretty much game over. There isn't enough critical care hospital capacity in the entire country to handle 5% of that number. That Chloroquine better come through because this is rapidly starting to look like The Big One.

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:38 pm I feel like I have fallen into a Hollywood B horror movie.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:06 pm

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:11 pm California estimates appx 25 million residents will get covid-19 over the next 8 weeks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/corona ... weeks.html

If that's even close to true, then its pretty much game over. There isn't enough critical care hospital capacity in the entire country to handle 5% of that number. That Chloroquine better come through because this is rapidly starting to look like The Big One.

The problem I have with extrapolating from models like this is that predictions need to be reconciled with what we know about the Chinese experience, now that the virus has run its course there. Your 5% scenario is simply not consistent with what we already know.

This is NOT the 1918 flu or the Black Death. Thank heavens for that.

Note for Libertarian666: there was a promising early clinical trial result of chloroquine from France. It apparently shortens the disease course, which is nice. Hardly a cure though.

Back to reading Connie Willis' sci fi book about the Black Death....gives one a bit of perspective.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:06 pm This is NOT the 1918 flu or the Black Death. Thank heavens for that.

...Back to reading Connie Willis' sci fi book about the Black Death....gives one a bit of perspective.

The officials have alerted us to ensure we have a month’s worth of necessities. Zelda and I have stocked up on red wine, whiskey, rum, vermouth, absinthe, white wine, sherry, gin, and lord, if we need it, brandy. Please pray for us.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:36 pm I cannot believe that the Chinese number provides any hope. They welded people into their apartments, remember? Are we going to do that?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:27 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:22 pm The people who are really on the front lines here: nurses, ER staff, critical care specialists, internal medicine. I'm not any of those. My sister is an ER doc and I know she's a bit scared every time she heads into a shift. She's in a small hospital with very few cases, though...mine has over 200, which is about a quarter of its usual capacity.

Smith1776, your vitamin D story is new to me. I have to say I also think the stuff is a miracle in a jar. I was battling a bad sinus infection once, took a nice big 10,000 IU hit of vitamin D, and it literally dissolved away in about half a day. Incredible. I've even heard the notion floated that the reason flu & colds are so much worse in the winter is that people are indoors and therefore making less vitamin D.

If the currently investigative treatments aren't miracle cures, you will be on the front lines in a week or two. This is going to be all hands on deck for anyone even slightly qualified in the medical field.

I think after this is over, we will need a 7th branch of the armed forces (maybe not armed though): The Health Force. They will be reservist doctors, nurses, lab techs, and the like, whose training will be paid for by the government and kept in reserve for pandemics.

It's either that or ban international passenger air travel.

Pick one.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:06 pm

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:11 pm California estimates appx 25 million residents will get covid-19 over the next 8 weeks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/corona ... weeks.html

If that's even close to true, then its pretty much game over. There isn't enough critical care hospital capacity in the entire country to handle 5% of that number. That Chloroquine better come through because this is rapidly starting to look like The Big One.

One more point: if chloroquine does come through, Trump will have saved the country. No other President would have had the balls to tell the FDA to approve it on the spot.