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Ukrainian drone up, spot a battalion of 500 new raw Russian conscripts, 4 Grads actioned to launch 160 fragmentation missiles in a 20 seconds and they're all launched burst, then scarper/hide and within less than half a minute the 500 battalion are down to maybe 100 survivors.We were thrown into landings, they told us to dig in, we dug in as best we could, officers immediately ran away, within hours the battalion of 500 were shredded
seajay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:06 pm
Surviving Russian conscript account ...
We were thrown into landings, they told us to dig in, we dug in as best we could, officers immediately ran away, within hours the battalion of 500 were shredded
Ukrainian drone up, spot a battalion of 500 new raw Russian conscripts, 4 Grads actioned to launch 160 fragmentation missiles in a 20 seconds and they're all launched burst, then scarper/hide and within less than half a minute the 500 battalion are down to maybe 100 survivors.
Rinse/repeat.
I guess the Russian officers know what's coming and hence their "dig in quickly" advice and hasty departure in having achieved their objective of a delivery of a battalion to a specific location.
joypog wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:58 am
btw Perun on youtube is highly recommended. 1 hour powerpoint presentation about war and logistics every weekend. This most recent one about lies and armies is brilliant. Most likely applicable to corporate life in your own company if you're not yet retired.
Russia is a pariah terrorist state, its (and its population) own choice. Seemingly with many Russian's committing atrocities, and partaking in launching missile attacks intentionally into civilian areas or employing other 'cleansing' methods.yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:37 pmEven though Russia is on the wrong end of this ... still horrible to read about the fate of these soldiers forced to be a part of it.seajay wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 2:06 pm Surviving Russian conscript account ...Ukrainian drone up, spot a battalion of 500 new raw Russian conscripts, 4 Grads actioned to launch 160 fragmentation missiles in a 20 seconds and they're all launched burst, then scarper/hide and within less than half a minute the 500 battalion are down to maybe 100 survivors.We were thrown into landings, they told us to dig in, we dug in as best we could, officers immediately ran away, within hours the battalion of 500 were shredded
Rinse/repeat.
I guess the Russian officers know what's coming and hence their "dig in quickly" advice and hasty departure in having achieved their objective of a delivery of a battalion to a specific location.
I’ve been watching his presentations for a while — great in-depth infojoypog wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:58 am btw Perun on youtube is highly recommended. 1 hour powerpoint presentation about war and logistics every weekend. This most recent one about lies and armies is brilliant. Most likely applicable to corporate life in your own company if you're not yet retired.
Yup...whether that's good or bad is a little more difficult question in my mind. I think it's a good thing to have international forums where countries can come together to discuss and work various issues; however, at the end of the day raw power pretty much decides how things are going to be on the big issues.
I'm assuming that you meant "other than the US in Afghanistan, I can't think of a more worthy belligerent to support than Ukraine in recent times."
That’s a very interesting contrarian take. I agree with the final paragraph. While I support McDonald’s and the like closing in Russia and there is a degree of making things hard for Putin by making things hard for his constituents (for lack of a better word), there is no need to make Russians suffer in the context that you mentioned. It’s not helping the world and it’s obnoxious signaling.Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:19 pmI'm assuming that you meant "other than the US in Afghanistan, I can't think of a more worthy belligerent to support than Ukraine in recent times."
I'd take the opposite side of that. Ukraine is NOT worthy of our support. By that I mean the government of Ukraine. IIRC, the government of Ukraine was/is the most corrupt in Europe, and Ukraine is one of the only (or the only?) countries to get poorer after the Soviet Union dissolved. Zelensky is a sanctimonious prick who campaigned on ending the combat in the Donbass, got punked by the neo-Nazis on the front lines when he told them to pull back, and now demands OUR supplies, hardware, economy-damaging sanctions, and moral support. The Ukrainian military, as seajay alluded to, sets up in civilian areas and attracts Russian ordnance. For sure, a smart self-preservation move by the Ukrainians, but hardly moral. Al Qaeda/the Taliban did the same thing in mosques and schools. They've committed numerous war crimes. For what it's worth I think the Russian side has done their share of Bad Things as well, but my point is that this isn't in contention for "most worthy cause to support."
I think the general populace of Ukraine would have been vastly better served if there had been no Western support and the war could have thus ended quickly. Whether it was preferable for the historically/ethnically Russian areas to be annexed into Russia (formerly speculative, now current situation) or left as part of Ukraine under a different political situation than the post-coup one is debatable.
I'd also note that much of the "support" of Ukraine (really, anti-Russian hysteria) has been basically retarded, like banning Russian athletes from sports competitions, cancelling college classes on Russian literature, hospitals refusing Russian patients, and cancelling Russian musician's performances.
Come at me bros.
Yeah, that’s why I phrased it the way I did, despite yesterday’s uproar from various nations. Now they’re saying it was a stray Ukranian air defense missile.yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:23 pmhttps://www.c-span.org/video/?524284-1/ ... kes-poland
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Defense Department Briefing
Defense Department Spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder says the Pentagon is “aware” of media reports of Russian missile strikes in Poland that killed two people, but says those reports cannot be corroborated “at this time.”
The Simpsons wrote:Now correct me if I'm incorrect but was I told that it's untrue that people in Springfield have no faith? - Was I not misinformed?
...The answer I'm looking for is yes.
By line break...Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:19 pmI'm assuming that you meant "other than the US in Afghanistan, I can't think of a more worthy belligerent to support than Ukraine in recent times."
I'd take the opposite side of that. Ukraine is NOT worthy of our support. By that I mean the government of Ukraine. IIRC, the government of Ukraine was/is the most corrupt in Europe, and Ukraine is one of the only (or the only?) countries to get poorer after the Soviet Union dissolved. Zelensky is a sanctimonious prick who campaigned on ending the combat in the Donbass, got punked by the neo-Nazis on the front lines when he told them to pull back, and now demands OUR supplies, hardware, economy-damaging sanctions, and moral support. The Ukrainian military, as seajay alluded to, sets up in civilian areas and attracts Russian ordnance. For sure, a smart self-preservation move by the Ukrainians, but hardly moral. Al Qaeda/the Taliban did the same thing in mosques and schools. They've committed numerous war crimes. For what it's worth I think the Russian side has done their share of Bad Things as well, but my point is that this isn't in contention for "most worthy cause to support."
I think the general populace of Ukraine would have been vastly better served if there had been no Western support and the war could have thus ended quickly. Whether it was preferable for the historically/ethnically Russian areas to be annexed into Russia (formerly speculative, now current situation) or left as part of Ukraine under a different political situation than the post-coup one is debatable.
I'd also note that much of the "support" of Ukraine (really, anti-Russian hysteria) has been basically retarded, like banning Russian athletes from sports competitions, cancelling college classes on Russian literature, hospitals refusing Russian patients, and cancelling Russian musician's performances.
Come at me bros.
Personally, I also think it's a good thing the Saddam government was overthrown and he was executed. Inside a vacuum. Outside the vacuum, it's harder to deal with the other aspects of Iraq II. Like our own government's information operations, the massive damage to civilian infrastructure during the initial invasion, turning that part of the world into even more of a hellhole for a long time, and the massive casualties afterwards. But yea, reading about how the Baath party treated its citizens is pretty gross. Lots of similarities with the Ukrainians, Russians, and Donbass groups.
My assertion is that the Ukrainian military sets up in civilian areas and attracts Russian ordnance. A couple examples:Not sure where you are getting your information, but you're going to have to provide some evidence for your assertion that Ukraine is setting up it's civilians to get killed. Stating it doesn't cut it. Why even do that when the Russians provide all the PR Ukraine could want on a daily basis for the entire world to see?
Another good example that I may be able to find later is a video showing destroyed Ukrainian vehicles (or artillery pieces, I can't remember) where they were parked between two apartment complexes.Ukrainian armed forces and armed groups maintained their positions and further
embedded their weapons and forces in populated areas, in violation of their obligations
under international humanitarian law. In Shyrokyne, a key location in the ‘grey zone’
between the Government-controlled city of Mariupol and the town of Novoazovsk
controlled by the armed groups, OHCHR documented extensive use of civilian buildings
and locations by the Ukrainian military and the Azov regiment, and looting of civilian
property, leading to displacement
. Prima facie civilian buildings in Donetsk city, such as
residential buildings, a shelter for homeless people
, and a former art gallery, continued
to be used by armed groups, thereby endangering civilians. In the village of Kominternove,
Donetsk region, residents reported that members of the armed groups of the ‘Donetsk
people’s republic’ took over abandoned houses. In January and February 2016, hostilities
between the armed groups stationed in Kominternove and Ukrainian armed forces stationed
in the nearby village of Vodiane have endangered the local population
.Armed groups and Ukrainian armed forces also continued to position military forces
in or near hospitals. In Telmanove, armed members of the ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ have
occupied part of the general hospital building, which is adjacent to a maternity hospital
and sustained damage from shelling. In Volnovakha, Ukrainian armed forces were stationed
in close proximity to a local hospital. OHCHR recalls that hospitals are specifically
protected under article 11 of Additional Protocol II to the Geneva Conventions, which are
binding on the warring parties.
Via the United Nations. There are more examples in that report and elsewhere.A former member of an armed group informed OHCHR about his ill-treatment by
Ukrainian forces (allegedly SBU) in September 2014, in the town of Sloviansk, Donetsk
region. After his arrest, he was reportedly kept in the basement of the local college and
regularly beaten. He was later transferred to the town of Izium, where he was kept in a
basement, together with 12 other detainees. He claimed having witnessed a summary
execution while there.
. . .
OHCHR also documented
the case of three women, who were detained in May 2015, in a town under Government
control in Donetsk region. The victims included the wife of an armed group commander
and her daughter. The latter was allegedly severely tortured, and both were allegedly
threatened with sexual violence
. . .
In another case, a ‘pro-federalism’ activist from Odesa, charged of acts of terrorism
was pressured to sign a confession after being tortured at the Odesa SBU. During his
interrogation, he was reportedly suffocated with a plastic bag covering his head and was
beaten on the face, head and body. The SBU officers then allegedly took him to the lobby
of the SBU building where he was shown his son whom they had also arrested. His son was
taken to a separate room and the father could hear his harrowing screams.
My argument isn't that one should support Russia over Ukraine. It's that we shouldn't support Ukraine or Russia.Not to mention their history in Chechnya and Syria. This assertion falls flat on it's face.
I also was using World Bank data, compiled by Our World In Data, first seen here:Poorer, really? I think not. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY ... cations=UA
Ukraine is corrupt. No issues there.Corruption, yep. Wonder where that culture came from? They will have to get a grip on it if they're serious about joining the EU.
No argument here. Some Ukrainians didn't want to be part of Ukraine after the coup, others still did, and they started fighting over whether they'd be allowed to leave. Personally, I don't have a problem with areas deciding they don't want to be part of certain governments anymore. Places like Scotland and Catalan are fortunate that they're in a relatively peaceful part of the world where they can put it up for a vote. Looking at how violent the coup was, I can see why the forces of Donetsk and Luhansk didn't want to give the new Ukrainian government time to stop them.Good to know you think the Ukrainian populace would have been better off. Ukrainians clearly don't and are voting with their lives. Perhaps it would be helpful for you to read up on Stalin's mass deportations (and importations of Russians). Russian claims on Crimea as being "Russian" are particularly shall we say rich in historical irony.
NATO is a great deal for the non-Americans in it, no question. Ethnic Ukrainians do seem to hate Russia. As I understand it, a lot of Russians got "trapped" behind the borders of Ukraine when the Soviet Union dissolved. It would make sense to me that those areas want to revert back to Russia. I can also understand Ukraine not wanting to give them up without a fight since they have a lot of resources they wouldn't want to lose. This has been a common theme in European history. I don't think there's a moral imperative that the US gets involved in a territorial battle between Ukraine and Russia.Yep, that's a thing. Perhaps one should ask, why do eastern Europeans despise Russia and Russians and why did they try to get into NATO as soon as they could?
IIRC, in War Is A Force That Gives Us Meaning, Hedges talked about the Serbian paramilitary executing groups of people they captured with a sledgehammer. I'm honestly surprised that you think the Russo-Ukraine war is a more worthy one to support than the US policing action in the Balkans.As noted by others, Putin turned Russia into a pariah state. 100% deservedly so. That sucks for individual Russians no doubt and if the mobilization reports are accurate I feel doubly sad for those guys...but for Russia, typical. That's their culture and military culture specifically. Admittedly not Russian military, but besides ISIS who takes a person no matter how bad they are and smashes their head in with a sledge hammer?
There are videos of Ukrainian military executing Russian POWs (About 20% down this NYT article). It appears that they slit their throats, then shot one who was still alive. It's heinous over there. The UN report lists a lot more of this kind of stuff, from all sides.Who takes a captured soldier and castrates him (that one was Russian military)? And then...films it all and posts it???
If you're going to talk about geopolitical strategy, you have to bring up geography, not "flouting international norms." This is the only line of argument that has any weight with me; the Zeihan argument that Russia wants to expand up to more defensible borders on the western side of Ukraine. I'm sure the thought process is "if Russia can secure more defensible borders, then they'll be more apt to attack neighbors (and the US) since they are better able to defend themselves." I would just say that I agree with Zeihan that the days of the US being the world police are coming to an end because we're finding that the cost of it isn't worth it when we're not facing off against the powerful Soviet Union.In terms of what to do as a US geopolitical strategist, this one's not even hard.
It's awkward to say that Russia is flouting international norms as an American. You brought up Syria earlier, where we've armed insurgents and conducted combat operations to overthrow their government without anything approaching a declaration of war AFAIK. Russia was there at the invitation of the government to fight the insurgents, which is objectively more in keeping with international norms than what we were doing.You don't get to flout international norms to the extent Putin has and not pay a price eventually.
As the New Testament says...by their fruits you shall know them. And Kriegs, you're on the wrong side of history with this one my friend.
What would the point of that be, other than to lead directly to a shooting war between us and Russia? As current CIA director Bill Burns wrote in 2008,
Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players . . . I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.