mathjak's daytrading adventures

[mathjak107]

In the pp case it seems to be counting on falling or stable interest rate trends

[dualstow]

In the pp case it seems to be counting on falling or stable interest rate trends

Just out of curiosity, do you keep about 25% in cash?

[mathjak107]

If I include the cash in the pp and all cash we hold it is more like 60% in cash still ....we are on the fence about paying cash for a condo we are eyeing in westchester as well as just closed our LLC which as a business had working capital that was distributed.

We also just filled up the checking account for the years expenses since we are retired

[amdda01]

TLT just won't stop - brutal.

[mathjak107]

TLT just won't stop - brutal.
[/quote
Nope no bottom .. it has to be over 20% now from the highs.

I was averaging down daily but as of today I stopped.

Tlt needs bad news and it just ain’t happening now

[Smith1776]

It is times like this I am thankful for all-in-one funds that mask the price fluctuations of internal components like the long bond. A little less hand wringing this way.

[dualstow]

It is times like this I am thankful for all-in-one funds that mask the price fluctuations of internal components like the long bond. A little less hand wringing this way.

Plus you're not daytrading long bonds.....I hope.

[mathjak107]

I can’t really trade them even if I wanted , they only have been falling ....they have not been exceeding the prices I paid so I am in it for now until something sends them reversing course ....the chart is ugly..
.

True ,one good day can turn them positive but we can’t seem to have that one good day long enough .

I show I am down 2.74% on Tlt and 2.19 on Gld at this moment

[Smith1776]

Plus you're not daytrading long bonds.....I hope.

"Only" day trading levered equity ETFs.

[mathjak107]

I did that maybe 2 or 3x in my life ....not something I like to do ...I prefer speculating in things like cvx or gbtc after it takes a dump and I will hope to catch a bounce

[Vil]

I can’t really trade them even if I wanted , they only have been falling ....they have not been exceeding the prices I paid so I am in it for now

I guess you do not utilize stop-losses, but rather keep soft stops in your mind ? Or maybe some emergency stops ?

[mathjak107]

If the intention is to use the pp then I commit regardless..it does not mean I am happy with what it is doing compared to what I shifted from but if I comitt I will give it some time.

There just does not seem to be a let up in the Tlt plunge.

Each day I was bringing it back up by what it fell but that proved to be an exercise in futility as each day it only falls more.

Well it can only go to zero. Lol

[mathjak107]

Still no let up as rates climb...you have to wonder when things will at least level out for gold and tlt ..

I am still averaging down and adding to the pp which has the losses seem to be growing daily ....it is a tough fight when two major assets are down and pretty much in bear markets from the highs and a third one is flat to down as well as far as cash and short term bonds.

Only horse is equities and they can’t hold the line this year against the weight of the 3 other assets under performing

[Kbg]

I'm generally not an average downer kinda guy with no bottom in sight. It's probably all just a personal mental game, but one thing I like to do is put a moving average on and wait for a cross above the MA before averaging down. The cross could be nothing more than a head fake with more down to come, but at least it saves one from just eating it multiple times all the way down and at some point you will do your final average down near to the perfect place.

Free internet advice, take it for what it's worth.

[dualstow]

I think that mathjak is generally a "need to do something" kind of guy. He doesn't need to trade ever again, but it's boring not to. And, that can be dangerous once too many assets head downward. Could be completely off on this, but that's what it feels like.

[mathjak107]

I do enjoy trading but my core funds usually stay for years if not decades unless the newsletter swaps some out ..

So I always have some money for trading .

But with us hitting record highs in net worth and the bull long in the tooth I thought I would protect those gains after a great last year by using the pp ....

But as luck had it rates went up and became toxic to major components....

Compared to the model I shifted out of which also was 25% equities I am down about 50k right now...

The pp Model is

3379 shares Gld 173.09

3868.101 Tlt. 151.87967

562k in Bil ,vgsh and fdlxx

562k in fbgrx , fcntx and vti

[Don]

I do enjoy trading but my core funds usually stay for years if not decades unless the newsletter swaps some out ..

So I always have some money for trading .

But with us hitting record highs in net worth and the bull long in the tooth I thought I would protect those gains after a great last year by using the pp ....

But as luck had it rates went up and became toxic to major components....

Compared to the model I shifted out of which also was 25% equities I am down about 50k right now...

The pp Model is

3379 Gld 173.09

3868.101 Tlt. 151.87967

562k in Bil ,vgsh and fxlxx

562k in fbgrx , fcntx and vti

You should have kept GBTC. I dipped my toe in it and am very happy.

[mathjak107]

You are sooooooooo right lol.

Should have thrown it all in Bitcoin when it was 4K ....I wouldn’t even need to invest today

[dualstow]

I do enjoy trading but my core funds usually stay for years if not decades unless the newsletter swaps some out ..

That's the way to do it, in my opinion.

So I always have some money for trading .

But with us hitting record highs in net worth and the bull long in the tooth I thought I would protect those gains after a great last year by using the pp ....

With you so far.

But as luck had it rates went up and became toxic to major components....

Seems like something you can ride out, though. Do you need to keep buying falling assets so often?

[mathjak107]

I am sitting on a lot of cash so I would like to get quite a bit in ...I figure at almost 2% interest on Tlt that does make it more palatable to wait for things to cycle hopefully rather than zero on the cash .

So each day I level out the assets equally ...at this point the cash stays at cash . So it is just the three I add to ..lately though Gld and tlt have been getting most of the added money

[mathjak107]

With so much negativity and a daily slide in Tlt almost a given where is the game stopper crowd acting on Tlt ? Maybe we all need to go to Reddit and do a little up talking

[buddtholomew]

I can’t help but think TLT will be the beneficiary as soon as the market turns south. Thinking about taking a shot today.

[mathjak107]

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

[Cortopassi]

I agree , which is why I have been averaging down all along and putting hundreds of thousands of dollars in it ....

I mean if equities were down 25% off their highs wouldn’t you take advantage ? We never catch the lows of anything .

Gold and tlt are pretty much in a bear market from the highs or darn close ... if not buying them now , when , when they are hot again and everyone wants them ?

EXACTLY. Do it when it is painful and seems stupid, right?

[buddtholomew]

All good points MJ.
One caveat...the worse things get the better it is for stocks as more and more $ is pumped into the system. Today’s unemployment numbers would have kick started a flight to safety but now it has almost assured more stimulus is on the way. Negative for bonds.