Gyroscopic Investing

Bump.

So now what do y'all think about RSXJ?   

it seems like it was a great call (rsx up about 20% in a few months) if i'm correct on my perusal of the posts here that were just bumped.
maybe there should be an ongoing thread to discuss opportunities like these that someone occasionally finds, the deep value plays or as someone said the grit your teeth portfolio

26.68
Nov 17 - Close

About time for an update.  I'm still in Russia and India only because I used wide enough trailing stops.

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Kshartle wrote: Tiny ETF made up of 29 small and midcap russian companies. Very diversified as far as industries goes. Sporting a P/E around 5 currently and is down 50% from it's highs in 2011.

Buy when there's blood in the streets right? How much lower can it go?

It's big brother RSX is a billion dollar fund of 47 russian large caps. It's at about a P/E of 6 and is mostly energy, materials and telecom.

Any thoughts guys? The charts look bad but I prefer buying what everyone else hates and hoping for a big score.

Since this thread was started, when many thought that it had dropped just about as much as it could and was a major bargain, RSXJ is down almost another 50%, from 37 down to just above 20! That is the problem with catching a falling knife, I guess. If it drops another 40% to somewhere near 12 I'm definitely in.

Between the crash in the energy sector, it's hyper aggressive foreign policy, economic sanctions, complete disregard for property rights, and a brewing currency crisis I wouldn't go anywhere near Russia for investment purposes.

I've bought a modest amount twice in 2014 and surely now it feels like the knife is still falling, but I'm not panicking as this is my VP and the fundamentals make it a deep value position. Sanctions will go away some day and with RSXJ being more local consumer-oriented it surely has a potential. I consider RSXJ a long-term position and I might buy a bit more next year.

Russia is a disaster on wheels. Sanctions could be in place for years, even decades, depending on Putin. The economy is basically a one trick pony, that being Gas. The government is little more than an organized crime syndicate. The nation's currency is collapsing (-10% vs the USD just today!); and the country has serious long term problems that just aren't being discussed, like a negative birth rate in one of the most sparsely populated nations on Earth.

At a minimum I would need to see a change in government before I would even think about investing in Russia. Until then, the likelihood is that things are just going to deteriorate.

Russian interest rates climbed to 17% today. This is big trouble for them.  Is it also big trouble for everyone else  including us?

Reub wrote: Russian interest rates climbed to 17% today. This is big trouble for them.  Is it also big trouble for everyone else  including us?

I don't think so. This was an emergency measure by the Russian Central Bank to try and stabilize the Ruble. I don't see a huge risk other than to people invested in Russia or holding Russian bonds. Though I would think that Putin probably is keeping a couple spare sets of clean shorts close at hand these days.

Wow! NADL down 82% in 3 months! There should be some kind of a bounce when that thing turns around. But when?

I wonder what a Russian PP created at the beginning of the year would look like right now.  Hmmmm...

RyeWhiskey wrote:But as I mentioned here regarding GDX, this is not a short term trade. I may lose another 50% or more before its over.

As one who bailed on mining stocks a while ago I'd be interested in your plan if assets like RSXJ or GDX tank another 50%. Do you stop loss, bail entirely or average down/hold and hope for a 100% gain just to get back to par!?

So if "buying when blood is in the streets" doesn't work, there's always being a war profiteer, right?

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