Permanent Portfolio Forum
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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5472
And I am impressed!1NV35T0R (Greg) wrote:Looks like they are still going "strong" hah, with a baby to boot.dualstow wrote: Kim Kardashian and Kanye West will split up, citing irreconcilable differences.
The pp will be ok.
Why not just manage duration?sophie wrote: Barrett's question is a good one. There's been some threads on it previously. I think the conclusion was that it is reasonable to switch the LTT allocation to cash once interest rates go down enough. It wasn't so clear how to decide when to jump back in though.
The trick is to decide what that number will be, write that down somewhere, and then sit tight. The consensus was somewhere between 1-1.5% I think, based on Japan's experience. A lot of the earnings in the historic Japanese PP come from rebalancing due to long bond rates bouncing up and down. Managing the timing of getting out & back into long bonds might require a lot of portfolio watching, which may not be the best use of your time. When bonds move, they move FAST...you'd really have to be watching closely. And in the end you may not save yourself that much...remember than when bonds are going down, something else is going to be doing well.
Isn't it funny how everyone all trips over themselves not to come to the logical frackin' conclusion?
No kidding. People forget their life has a "path dependency" as well and it may not tack with an asset class at the right time.MachineGhost wrote: Isn't it funny how everyone all trips over themselves not to come to the logical frackin' conclusion?
I don't know what the reason would be. The reason I can think of is that you are no longer concerned about deflation/depression and no longer want to be protected against that economic scenario.sophie wrote:I think the conclusion was that it is reasonable to switch the LTT allocation to cash once interest rates go down enough.