Ad Orientem wrote:
While I readily concede that an economic calamity (extreme depression, civil war, hyperinflation) could precipitate a major decline in the standard of living, the sort of long term chaos being described on this thread and in the original post is almost impossible for me to imagine sans an apocalyptic event. I am a student of history. And nothing like that has occurred in any developed country as a consequence of an economic or purely military event that I am aware of....
Natural disasters or extreme war conditions can cause severe localized dislocations. But these are inherently temporary. Human nature and the evidence of the last 1500 years of human history I think pretty conclusively back up my view on this.
I know of no incident in the history of human civilization that resulted in that kind of chaos for any real length of time.
Everything is always "temporary." The question becomes how long? I'd argue that if it lasts 30-40 years, or call it a generation or more, might as well call it permanent. After that anything isn't "going back" or "restoring" but rather starting from the new "normal."
There have been many events that have had severe disruption and became essentially permanent by that definition.
Afghanistan in 1970 had an international airport and was essentially a developed nation. Enter the soviet union and 20 years of guerilla warfare followed by the Taliban enforcing their own fundamentalist version of Islam including forbidding most secular education and they are not even a developing nation any more.
Zimbabwe (or Rhodesia) used to be the breadbasket of Africa, feeding themselves and much of the continent. There was some civil war in the mid-1970's but up until about 1990 they were an easy place to relocate for anyone used to western European or north American civilization. Now it has been nearly two decades with no rule of law and the cities can no longer provide essential services, disease runs rampant and life expectancy is 1/2 from it was. In another 10 years the dominant part of the population will have no memory but stories of what it was like before.
A whole bunch of eastern Europe SHTF... Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Yugoslavia/Kosovo, went thru what anyone who was there would describe as SHTF. Recovered yet? Views differ but they definitely are making progress but in many ways are still worse off than before. But so much better now than 30 years ago, people that remember the old days are a marginal part of society.
Cambodia and the Khmer Rouge.
Mao and the cultural revolution.
North Korea.
Etc.
