Gyroscopic Investing

Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:42 pm Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference.

One of the finest episodes.

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:08 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:42 pm Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference.

One of the finest episodes.

Now, THAT could really spice up this forum. A king of the castle competition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61zJHstzOoY

1:53 of the best comedy writing and acting.

barrett wrote: ↑Fri Jun 02, 2023 7:59 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:08 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:42 pm Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference.

One of the finest episodes.

Now, THAT could really spice up this forum. A king of the castle competition.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61zJHstzOoY

1:53 of the best comedy writing and acting.

We all pitch in an ounce of gold and the winner takes all! Honour system of course.

We don’t have enough women on the forum to take part.

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Jun 02, 2023 2:03 pm We don’t have enough women on the forum to take part.

They’d have to pitch in 2 ounces of gold each as per Elaine.

Yes!

Vinny, I moved your Amazon cell service post to the Signatures thread.
After all, we have to stay on track with regard to this important topic: Seinfeld

Maddy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:54 am Switching gears, surely if one believes American exceptionalism is coming to an end there are any number of portfolios one could choose to hedge against it. Holding only globally-diversified stocks, market cap weighted (e.g. a blend of 60:40 VTI:VEU or simple the all-world ETF VT) plus an appropriate amount of an unhedged global bond fund would be a minimalist way to do it

It’s kinda of funny that as much time as people spend trying to create and fine tune the perfect asset allocation, over the last 10 years a simple 50/50 Global Stock/Global Bond portfolio has almost exactly equaled the PP return. Yes it had some larger drawdowns but at the end of the day your portfolio $$ amount would have been almost identical in each portfolio.

jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:46 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:54 am Switching gears, surely if one believes American exceptionalism is coming to an end there are any number of portfolios one could choose to hedge against it. Holding only globally-diversified stocks, market cap weighted (e.g. a blend of 60:40 VTI:VEU or simple the all-world ETF VT) plus an appropriate amount of an unhedged global bond fund would be a minimalist way to do it

It’s kinda of funny that as much time as people spend trying to create and fine tune the perfect asset allocation, over the last 10 years a simple 50/50 Global Stock/Global Bond portfolio has almost exactly equaled the PP return. Yes it had some larger drawdowns but at the end of the day your portfolio $$ amount would have been almost identical in each portfolio.

Yup, couldn't agree more. Set your asset allocation, walk away, and get on with your life.

It's one of the reasons why I've mentioned why I really like this forum. I think a lot of us have found investment equanimity to the point in which we discuss more fun things and social topics. We don't bother with interminable debates the way the Bogleheads do. One visit over there and you can just tell that the space is filled with nothing but hand wringing and the gnashing of teeth.

jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:46 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:54 am
Switching gears, surely if one believes American exceptionalism is coming to an end there are any number of portfolios one could choose to hedge against it. Holding only globally-diversified stocks, market cap weighted (e.g. a blend of 60:40 VTI:VEU or simple the all-world ETF VT) plus an appropriate amount of an unhedged global bond fund would be a minimalist way to do it

It’s kinda of funny that as much time as people spend trying to create and fine tune the perfect asset allocation, over the last 10 years a simple 50/50 Global Stock/Global Bond portfolio has almost exactly equaled the PP return. Yes it had some larger drawdowns but at the end of the day your portfolio $$ amount would have been almost identical in each portfolio.

Over what periods of time were these larger drawdowns?

A year? Multiple consecutive years?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:00 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:46 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:54 am
Switching gears, surely if one believes American exceptionalism is coming to an end there are any number of portfolios one could choose to hedge against it. Holding only globally-diversified stocks, market cap weighted (e.g. a blend of 60:40 VTI:VEU or simple the all-world ETF VT) plus an appropriate amount of an unhedged global bond fund would be a minimalist way to do it

It’s kinda of funny that as much time as people spend trying to create and fine tune the perfect asset allocation, over the last 10 years a simple 50/50 Global Stock/Global Bond portfolio has almost exactly equaled the PP return. Yes it had some larger drawdowns but at the end of the day your portfolio $$ amount would have been almost identical in each portfolio.

Yup, couldn't agree more. Set your asset allocation, walk away, and get on with your life.

It's one of the reasons why I've mentioned why I really like this forum. I think a lot of us have found investment equanimity to the point in which we discuss more fun things and social topics. We don't bother with interminable debates the way the Bogleheads do. One visit over there and you can just tell that the space is filled with nothing but hand wringing and the gnashing of teeth.

Maybe a true statement. Or maybe not.

I'm in the midst of deciding my next portfolio and as I disclosed in response elsewhere at this point I'm looking at:

60% - Golden Butterfly
40% - Half Treasuries / Half TIPS (with their terms yet to be decided, how much laddering, and so on)

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:43 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:46 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:54 am Switching gears, surely if one believes American exceptionalism is coming to an end there are any number of portfolios one could choose to hedge against it. Holding only globally-diversified stocks, market cap weighted (e.g. a blend of 60:40 VTI:VEU or simple the all-world ETF VT) plus an appropriate amount of an unhedged global bond fund would be a minimalist way to do it

It’s kinda of funny that as much time as people spend trying to create and fine tune the perfect asset allocation, over the last 10 years a simple 50/50 Global Stock/Global Bond portfolio has almost exactly equaled the PP return. Yes it had some larger drawdowns but at the end of the day your portfolio $$ amount would have been almost identical in each portfolio.

Over what periods of time were these larger drawdowns?

A year? Multiple consecutive years?

From Jan to Sept of 2022 the 50/50 had almost a 20% drawdown. The PP was 16% DD during that period. In March of 2020 the 50/50 dropped 7% while the PP only dropped a bit over 1%. So a 50/50 is a rougher ride. But from Jan 2014 until today, they have each returned 5.30% annually.

jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:50 pm
Over what periods of time were these larger drawdowns?

A year? Multiple consecutive years?

From Jan to Sept of 2022 the 50/50 had almost a 20% drawdown. The PP was 16% DD during that period. In March of 2020 the 50/50 dropped 7% while the PP only dropped a bit over 1%. So a 50/50 is a rougher ride. But from Jan 2014 until today, they have each returned 5.30% annually.
[/quote]

The purpose of my question was to get at the differences in the sequence of return risk when one starts retirement / withdrawals. I'd not consider the first two periods you cited as qualifying as they were both short time periods with not that large differences.

I assume you are citing 5.3% as their compounded annual return over the near 10 year period?

There could be a dramatic difference in sequence of return risk if the difference between the risk for any given year was far greater with the non-Permanent Portfolio model.

Like if in the one of the years wherein a person retired where there was a -5% return with the Permanent Portfolio model while there being a -20% or -25% return with the other model.

Of course, it's possible it could have also been in the other direction with the Permanent Portfolio model having the significantly worst negative return in a given year(s). However, one of the features of the Permanent Portfolio is while it will generally give less returns than other models it will almost always have less volatility, something to be valued when seeking some form of stability or assurance.

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:08 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:42 pm Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference.

One of the finest episodes.

that episode won many awards …not only was it really something that could have been easily censored in those days but it never used the actual word once for what they were betting on …

wikipedia actually has a story on that one episode

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 08, 2023 9:26 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 1:08 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:42 pm Every time I see this thread title I think it’s a Seinfeld reference.

One of the finest episodes.

that episode won many awards …not only was it really something that could have been easily censored in those days but it never used the actual word once for what they were betting on …

wikipedia actually has a story on that one episode

Haven't read the wiki but I do remember hearing third hand that there was a lot of pressure to not do the episode, and that Seinfeld himself kept fighting for it and finessing the language (along with Larry David, I'm sure) so as to walk the finest line possible