Gyroscopic Investing

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:23 am If we can't ban discussion of crypto on these forums we can at least not let the discussion be dominated by proselytizers for it.

Shouldn't the concern for the forum be good faith, intellectually honest discussion?

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:23 amThe other one, shared with me by Cullen Roche, the author of the article I started with this thread with, is a long but truly excellent YouTube video discussion NFTs and Crypto in detail. Caveat emptor.

https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g

Doodle posted a link to the same video and it's quite illuminating and highly recommended.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:08 pmShouldn't the concern for the forum be good faith, intellectually honest discussion?

As the above video illustrates, that can be extremely hard to come by in the realm of crypto.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:09 amIm addressing the points that you bring up, that isn't trolling. (bloviating about topics which you are unfamiliar with in an arrogant way seems more like trolling to me?)

YOU'RE the Troll you retard. This is a Permanent Portfolio forum/Gold thread. No respect, arrogant/rude. Begone and go spam a Ballet forum or wherever else you are permitted to spurt your promos.

Xan wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:11 pm

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:23 amThe other one, shared with me by Cullen Roche, the author of the article I started with this thread with, is a long but truly excellent YouTube video discussion NFTs and Crypto in detail. Caveat emptor.

https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g

Doodle posted a link to the same video and it's quite illuminating and highly recommended.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:08 pmShouldn't the concern for the forum be good faith, intellectually honest discussion?

As the above video illustrates, that can be extremely hard to come by in the realm of crypto.

Agree - I watched / listened to the entire two hour video (I have a way of listening to a YouTube video like a podcast). Very enlightening. The Axie Infinity part made me want to barf.

My opinion on the original question is a NO. Gold’s utility is still uniquely intact. Gold is acting like a risk off asset. I believe it is officially now treated as good as cash in the international banking system. It’s being stock piled by central banks possibly in preparation for a “great reset”.

Bitcoin to me is still a risk on speculation for a majority of the parties moving the market.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:13 amMy opinion on the original question is a NO. Gold’s utility is still uniquely intact. Gold is acting like a risk off asset. I believe it is officially now treated as good as cash in the international banking system. It’s being stock piled by central banks possibly in preparation for a “great reset”.

March 29th 2019 had gold uplifted from being counted at 50% (tier 3) to 100% (tier 1) of its marked to market value, the same as cash. Banks were required to increase their holdings, and that change made monetary gold in effect 'risk-free' - the same as the US$. That re-rating (and central banks net buying) looks to have been a contributory factor to the 50% relative (to US$) increase in the price of gold across 2019/2020.

TINA - there is no alternative (to the US$) was in effect addressed. Global finance is less exposed to the likes of a mad US president/US geopolitical risk. Whether that re-pegging subsequently sees low gold price volatility (in US$ terms) ?? So far it seems so as since the start of 2021 gold certainly hasn't been as volatile as might otherwise have been expected.

Prior to 1931 (UK, 1933 US) when legally you could swap gold/money at a fixed pegged rate it made more sense for investors to hold cash, deposited with the treasury so paid interest, than it was to hold gold, as that was like the state paying you for it to securely store your gold. A factor there however was that periodic 'resets' were required, so history indicates step/plateau type gold pricing. In that context a combination of short term treasury, long term treasury and gold where a form of 'total bond' holding and the PP might be considered as a form of 25/75 stock/bond asset allocation. It's reasonable to assume that each of STT/LTT/Gold to broadly 'reward' equally, but enduring interim volatility. When you have multiple assets each broadly yielding the same, but individually are volatile, then holding some of each and periodically rebalancing back to target weightings will yield a better reward/outcome than that of solely holding one alone.

Investors might try and time each, rotate fully into STT or LTT or gold according to perceptions of the relative valuations/expectations of the time, however often that achieves no better, more-often worse outcome over that of just 'trading' via equally weighting and periodic rebalancing. Post 2008/9 financial crisis when treasury yields dropped significantly, some suggested you were mad to hold LTT's - 'the price had only one way to go' (down). 2011 however saw LTT gain +30% !!

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:23 am
If we can't ban discussion of crypto on these forums we can at least not let the discussion be dominated by proselytizers for it.

Two good recent items. One is this thread on the environmental costs:

https://twitter.com/smdiehl/status/1350869944888664064

The other one, shared with me by Cullen Roche, the author of the article I started with this thread with, is a long but truly excellent YouTube video discussion NFTs and Crypto in detail. Caveat emptor.

https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g

1) I'm always in favor of the least amount of administrative regulation here. Instead, if anyone does not favor any type of discussion here .... then if all shared that same view and refrained from participating then it would eventually die out. But if some are responding then there is some obvious interest on the part of those participating.

2) Yes. There is an environmental costs to crypto. But there is also (presently) a far greater environmental costs to maintaining all those ATM machines out there. NOTE: I have yet to use a ATM machine, being anti-cash since I was a teenager and always seeking anti-cash modes of payment as much as possible. While I was a teenager I was able to convince what I then thought was the Mafia to accept my payments in the form of checks rather than cash.

I should've been clearer when I commented about the possibility of banning bitcoin discussion or at least proselytizers for it. I don't mean to inhibit anyone's free speech but promoting bitcoin in the gold sub-forum or anyplace other than the variable portfolio or other topics seems inappropriate to me. This is after all a forum for discussing the permanent portfolio and "greater fool" assets aren't part of it.

And while I obviously would never suggest that this forum be moderated anywhere near as strictly as Bogleheads, I think their rule about promoting such assets is worth quoting:

"Greater Fool Investing Strategies

Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel

Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes."

I guess I just need to create an orange-colored alternative avatar called "tulip bulbs in the vp" and post about the virtues of flower power in every sub-forum.

Kevin that is a great strategy as long as you have a tulip NFT associated with it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=q_XhJ180Etc

Yeah but do I really need an NFT when I’ve already got a catchy theme song?

https://youtu.be/zcSlcNfThUA

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:13 pm Yeah but do I really need an NFT when I’ve already got a catchy theme song?

https://youtu.be/zcSlcNfThUA

Add the two together and the NFT will be worth 100x

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:10 pm

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:13 pm Yeah but do I really need an NFT when I’ve already got a catchy theme song?

https://youtu.be/zcSlcNfThUA

Add the two together and the NFT will be worth 100x

BTC is less than 1 trillion market cap. Gold is over 10 trillion. If we generously assume that 50% of bitcoin investment would have otherwise gone into gold, that'd mean what, 5% difference in gold price?

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:07 am I should've been clearer when I commented about the possibility of banning bitcoin discussion or at least proselytizers for it. I don't mean to inhibit anyone's free speech but promoting bitcoin in the gold sub-forum or anyplace other than the variable portfolio or other topics seems inappropriate to me. This is after all a forum for discussing the permanent portfolio and "greater fool" assets aren't part of it.

Kevin, please read my posts in this thread and show me where I am even promoting someone purchasing bitcoin. Someone else started the thread, I commented on-topic throughout.

I get crypto people are in general annoying and scammy, but that doesn’t mean everyone you run into is. Watch for biases.

I would add that the most unsavory posts in this thread seajay continuously posting factually incorrect information and name calling when she is corrected.

seajay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:02 am

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:13 amMy opinion on the original question is a NO. Gold’s utility is still uniquely intact. Gold is acting like a risk off asset. I believe it is officially now treated as good as cash in the international banking system. It’s being stock piled by central banks possibly in preparation for a “great reset”.

March 29th 2019 had gold uplifted from being counted at 50% (tier 3) to 100% (tier 1) of its marked to market value, the same as cash. Banks were required to increase their holdings, and that change made monetary gold in effect 'risk-free' - the same as the US$. That re-rating (and central banks net buying) looks to have been a contributory factor to the 50% relative (to US$) increase in the price of gold across 2019/2020.

TINA - there is no alternative (to the US$) was in effect addressed. Global finance is less exposed to the likes of a mad US president/US geopolitical risk. Whether that re-pegging subsequently sees low gold price volatility (in US$ terms) ?? So far it seems so as since the start of 2021 gold certainly hasn't been as volatile as might otherwise have been expected.

Prior to 1931 (UK, 1933 US) when legally you could swap gold/money at a fixed pegged rate it made more sense for investors to hold cash, deposited with the treasury so paid interest, than it was to hold gold, as that was like the state paying you for it to securely store your gold. A factor there however was that periodic 'resets' were required, so history indicates step/plateau type gold pricing. In that context a combination of short term treasury, long term treasury and gold where a form of 'total bond' holding and the PP might be considered as a form of 25/75 stock/bond asset allocation. It's reasonable to assume that each of STT/LTT/Gold to broadly 'reward' equally, but enduring interim volatility. When you have multiple assets each broadly yielding the same, but individually are volatile, then holding some of each and periodically rebalancing back to target weightings will yield a better reward/outcome than that of solely holding one alone.

Investors might try and time each, rotate fully into STT or LTT or gold according to perceptions of the relative valuations/expectations of the time, however often that achieves no better, more-often worse outcome over that of just 'trading' via equally weighting and periodic rebalancing. Post 2008/9 financial crisis when treasury yields dropped significantly, some suggested you were mad to hold LTT's - 'the price had only one way to go' (down). 2011 however saw LTT gain +30% !!

I found this valuable, thank you seajay. Much better than slinging insults or making up your own facts!

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:54 pm

seajay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 6:02 am

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 1:13 amMy opinion on the original question is a NO. Gold’s utility is still uniquely intact. Gold is acting like a risk off asset. I believe it is officially now treated as good as cash in the international banking system. It’s being stock piled by central banks possibly in preparation for a “great reset”.

March 29th 2019 had gold uplifted from being counted at 50% (tier 3) to 100% (tier 1) of its marked to market value, the same as cash. Banks were required to increase their holdings, and that change made monetary gold in effect 'risk-free' - the same as the US$. That re-rating (and central banks net buying) looks to have been a contributory factor to the 50% relative (to US$) increase in the price of gold across 2019/2020.

TINA - there is no alternative (to the US$) was in effect addressed. Global finance is less exposed to the likes of a mad US president/US geopolitical risk. Whether that re-pegging subsequently sees low gold price volatility (in US$ terms) ?? So far it seems so as since the start of 2021 gold certainly hasn't been as volatile as might otherwise have been expected.

Prior to 1931 (UK, 1933 US) when legally you could swap gold/money at a fixed pegged rate it made more sense for investors to hold cash, deposited with the treasury so paid interest, than it was to hold gold, as that was like the state paying you for it to securely store your gold. A factor there however was that periodic 'resets' were required, so history indicates step/plateau type gold pricing. In that context a combination of short term treasury, long term treasury and gold where a form of 'total bond' holding and the PP might be considered as a form of 25/75 stock/bond asset allocation. It's reasonable to assume that each of STT/LTT/Gold to broadly 'reward' equally, but enduring interim volatility. When you have multiple assets each broadly yielding the same, but individually are volatile, then holding some of each and periodically rebalancing back to target weightings will yield a better reward/outcome than that of solely holding one alone.

Investors might try and time each, rotate fully into STT or LTT or gold according to perceptions of the relative valuations/expectations of the time, however often that achieves no better, more-often worse outcome over that of just 'trading' via equally weighting and periodic rebalancing. Post 2008/9 financial crisis when treasury yields dropped significantly, some suggested you were mad to hold LTT's - 'the price had only one way to go' (down). 2011 however saw LTT gain +30% !!

I found this valuable, thank you seajay. Much better than slinging insults or making up your own facts!

Thats one helluva compliment

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:23 am If we can't ban discussion of crypto on these forums we can at least not let the discussion be dominated by proselytizers for it.

Two good recent items. One is this thread on the environmental costs:

https://twitter.com/smdiehl/status/1350869944888664064

The other one, shared with me by Cullen Roche, the author of the article I started with this thread with, is a long but truly excellent YouTube video discussion NFTs and Crypto in detail. Caveat emptor.

https://youtu.be/YQ_xWvX1n9g

My own opinion is that 99.9% of the "private blockchain", "web3", alt coins, NFTs, and whatnot wont make it since they are either 1. overt scams, 2. do not require censorship resistance, or 3. dont sufficiently achieve required decentralization.

So I "agree" with much of the video's conclusions, although he seems to be targeting an audience of people that are less informed and just want to hear someone talk bad about crypto.

Bitcoin related criticisms that I identified from the video:

- Tether: This criticism seems valid. There is too much opacity around tether, IMHO.
- Peter Thiel et al like it: I dont see how who else owns gold, cash, AAPL stock, etc matters. The same for Bitcoin.
- Can be used to buy drugs: Most new tech is used by grey/black markets first. Same criticism of Internet in early days.
- Enriches early investors: Its turned out to be true, but there was never any promise Bitcoin would work or take off. So, like stock in new companies, or any other investment in the world, rewards go to those who identify value and take risk early, when risk is the highest and reward most uncertain.
- Slow transaction times: Id prefer shorter on chain confirmation times for Bitcoin, but on chain isnt meant for coffees. Use layer 2 (lightning, etc) for that.
- Greater fool theory: Does the same apply to gold, silver, non-dividend stocks?
- Low privacy on chain: True, I wish it was better. But there are work arounds Ive posted about, but not "out of the box".

These dont seem very impressive to me. Please let me know which (Bitcoin) criticisms I missed.

If there is interest, I could writeup some "Real Bitcoin FUD" series here in the forum.

Kevin K. wrote: ↑Sun Feb 06, 2022 9:07 am I should've been clearer when I commented about the possibility of banning bitcoin discussion or at least proselytizers for it. I don't mean to inhibit anyone's free speech but promoting bitcoin in the gold sub-forum or anyplace other than the variable portfolio or other topics seems inappropriate to me. This is after all a forum for discussing the permanent portfolio and "greater fool" assets aren't part of it.

And while I obviously would never suggest that this forum be moderated anywhere near as strictly as Bogleheads, I think their rule about promoting such assets is worth quoting:

"Greater Fool Investing Strategies

Eventually, one runs out of greater fools. - Burton Malkiel

Discussions of investment strategies based on securities or physical assets that have no underlying value or negative expected long term returns are prohibited. Examples include: cryptocurrencies; lottery tickets; tulip bulbs; Ponzi, pyramid, and multi-level marketing schemes; affinity frauds; and market manipulation schemes."

I guess I just need to create an orange-colored alternative avatar called "tulip bulbs in the vp" and post about the virtues of flower power in every sub-forum.

Hey Kevin,

I'm guilty of talking about Bitcoin outside of the VP forum, but it's not because I'm promoting Bitcoin. My interest in the PP and this forum, predates my interest in Bitcoin. I'm genuinely concerned about gold losing it's monetary utility and what this means for my PP. I'm interested in what other PPers think about a new form of money usurping the $USD, etc.

Do you really think we're out here trying to pump up interest in Bitcoin? I think we'd have more success in a forum or venue that has greater reach. We talk about Bitcoin here because this is a tight-knit unconventional group of free thinkers and we want to know what you think about it. This was one of the only places you could talk about investing in gold w/out being laughed out of the room.

What about this thread seemed promotional to you? It's a genuine concern I have about the PP. I'd like to know how I can discuss Bitcoin and its relationship to the PP w/out being a proselytizer.

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:49 pmI would add that the most unsavory posts in this thread seajay continuously posting factually incorrect information and name calling when she is corrected.

NO. The most unsavory is some jerk repeatedly posting content totally irrelevant to the Permanent Portfolio's GOLD discussion section. Given that you clearly have insufficient self restraint to limit your Ponzi vaporware sales pitches to the VP section, let me put it in a manner you might have sufficient brain cells to understand ... FUCK OFF YOU JERK! Feel better now (rhetorical) that your trolling to inflame has seemingly resulted in your desired intent. Good, maybe you'll go off and play your childish game elsewhere.

seajay wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 2:31 am

bitcoininthevp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:49 pmI would add that the most unsavory posts in this thread seajay continuously posting factually incorrect information and name calling when she is corrected.

NO. The most unsavory is some jerk repeatedly posting content totally irrelevant to the Permanent Portfolio's GOLD discussion section. Given that you clearly have insufficient self restraint to limit your Ponzi vaporware sales pitches to the VP section, let me put it in a manner you might have sufficient brain cells to understand ... FUCK OFF YOU JERK! Feel better now (rhetorical) that your trolling to inflame has seemingly resulted in your desired intent. Good, maybe you'll go off and play your childish game elsewhere.

• I find this discussion relevant to the PP's Gold discussion section.

• I don't think bitcoininthevp was trolling you.

• I find your continued name-calling unsavory.

As Neal Cassidy said in On the Road - “We must all relax.”

To me both of your posts are very helpful. I don’t really feel like anyone is promoting bitcoin. Personally, I think it’s better if it tends to stay in the VP section but I think it is going to bleed over into the gold section, which I don’t mind at all. Especially when the utilities of both are being discussed.

It would be fun to one day actually all get together and have a beer after we fight it out.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:54 amI don’t really feel like anyone is promoting bitcoin. Personally, I think it’s better if it tends to stay in the VP section but I think it is going to bleed over into the gold section, which I don’t mind at all. Especially when the utilities of both are being discussed.

Bitcoin is no more relevant to the PP Gold section than it hijacking any other board/discussions with how virtual/non-existent alternatives might be considered. It's a pure unregulated ponzi system that predominately benefits criminals, highly questionable as to whether discussion/promotion should even be permitted it the VP section. Those that want to don VR headsets and swap their real money for virtuality have plenty of platforms to play that without having to contaminate other boards that live in the real world. Yes some gamers are happy to trade virtual land, stock, commodities in their virtual worlds for actual real world money, some may even make real money out of that, but its not investing, its just playing. At a extreme anyone who swaps out all of their real world assets/wealth for a virtual palace with virtual paintings on the walls and virtual currency/commodities might live like a king in that virtual world, but in the real world will end up eating dog food.

seajay wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 3:29 am

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 10:54 amI don’t really feel like anyone is promoting bitcoin. Personally, I think it’s better if it tends to stay in the VP section but I think it is going to bleed over into the gold section, which I don’t mind at all. Especially when the utilities of both are being discussed.

Bitcoin is no more relevant to the PP Gold section than it hijacking any other board/discussions with how virtual/non-existent alternatives might be considered. It's a pure unregulated ponzi system that predominately benefits criminals, highly questionable as to whether discussion/promotion should even be permitted it the VP section. Those that want to don VR headsets and swap their real money for virtuality have plenty of platforms to play that without having to contaminate other boards that live in the real world. Yes some gamers are happy to trade virtual land, stock, commodities in their virtual worlds for actual real world money, some may even make real money out of that, but its not investing, its just playing. At a extreme anyone who swaps out all of their real world assets/wealth for a virtual palace with virtual paintings on the walls and virtual currency/commodities might live like a king in that virtual world, but in the real world will end up eating dog food.

I have not yet made up my mind on Bitcoin. I have not made any investments in it and am on the fence with it.

All you say may be true.

However, I have to weigh all of that against the mayor of New York taking his pay in Bitcoin and all I read in this book:

CryptoDad: The Fight for the Future of Money 1st Edition, Kindle Edition
by J. Christopher Giancarlo (Author)

https://www.amazon.com/CryptoDad-The-Fi ... l_huc_item

The author is highly creditable and influential.

Then again, I read Taleb, who basically embraces your position.

Which is why I remain on the fence.

I agree that taking a deep breath and relaxing would be good for everyone. Online discussions often get heated. Online discussions about finance get even more heated. And online discussions that relate to ethics/lifestyle get especially heated.

It seems like everyone here is on the same page, so despite certain differences I don't think anyone is really straying too far. Friendly reminders of staying on topic are definitely warranted (and encouraged!), but I'll admit I also don't think any of the discussion here was out of bounds. And I say this as someone who is both pro-crypto and largely pessimistic on Bitcoin (BTC) specifically.

To be clear I have many disagreements, both fundamental and technical, with things that BitVP says. He also does tend to repeat unconvincing points, but that's just because he really believes them. It's his prerogative to believe it and to write about it.

I think it would make sense to keep most crypto related discussion in the VP section, with only minimal discussion bleeding into other parts of the forum when they're especially warranted.

I think the BTC replacing Gold debate isn't particularly relevant at present because given the wild swings in crypto, only a slim minority genuinely believe that it can be considered a SoV right now. And if there isn't consensus on it being a store of value right now, you're speculating on its ability to be a store of value at some point. As interesting/important as that conversation can be, speculation is still speculation and probably belongs in the VP section if it continues beyond a few posts.

Finally, I'll say that crypto has many personalities. And maximalists (those devoted to their specific project over almost all others) tend to be particularly enthusiastic/defensive by definition. And even still, BitVP is relatively tame in that regard. You wouldn't believe the types of people you can interact with. Consider his evangelist behavior a polite (and fascinating) nuisance. Most are completely insufferable. Here you have a chance to get a different opinion in a way that's tolerable.

I hope you all continue to add interesting insights to the forum. The world is going to go through some interesting changes the next two decades, best to keep an open mind.

Arthur Boe Nansa wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 6:24 pm I agree that taking a deep breath and relaxing would be good for everyone. Online discussions often get heated. Online discussions about finance get even more heated. And online discussions that relate to ethics/lifestyle get especially heated.

And more so when someone repeatedly posts content in wrong places. A web site forum dedicated to Chevrolet pickup's, brakes sub-section, repeatedly having someone posting how using ballet shoes instead of conventional shoes because they personally particularly like, or benefit from the promotion of ballet shoes, on the suggestion that the vehicle will tend to go quicker ... will generate heat.

Fundamentally gold is the heart of the PP, the primary asset/holding, where other assets are included only as a means to smooth the interim volatility. Empires and fiat currencies come and go whilst gold endures. It might be acceptable to include discussions of silver as a alternative, but certainly not virtual alternatives, nor ballet shoes.

@seajay your kind of on island here. I think most people on this thread are not seeing it this way. And as a suggestion, I would say listen to Harry Browne’s radio archives. IMHO I think your off that that gold is the primary asset in the PP.