Gyroscopic Investing

I went to find the article doodle screenshotted, and here's what turned up on a google search. If anymore evidence is needed to tune out the noise and quit trying to predict the future, please let me know. I'll see what else I can turn up. Seems like the 'experts' don't always know what they're talking about.

The "experts" also include people like warren buffet poo pooing long bonds. Anyone experienced investor who still listens to an expert thinking they have some ability to predict future ought to have their head examined. Nobody knows!!

dockinGA wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 8:53 am I went to find the article doodle screenshotted, and here's what turned up on a google search. If anymore evidence is needed to tune out the noise and quit trying to predict the future, please let me know. I'll see what else I can turn up. Seems like the 'experts' don't always know what they're talking about.

jpm.JPG

That's good stuff.

Stone throw away from 1900.

Update: 1900.10 @ 2:10 EST

Hey it's at $1,903 now. That's cool.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:44 pm Hey it's at $1,903 now. That's cool.

This is all because I didn't buy at 17xx like I wanted to several weeks ago. I was busy researching storage options...........

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Wed May 26, 2021 4:30 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 8:44 pm Hey it's at $1,903 now. That's cool.

This is all because I didn't buy at 17xx like I wanted to several weeks ago. I was busy researching storage options...........

The last time I bought gold for 17xx was in 2012

I think I've posted this observation before, but it seems like there is a delayed reaction before the PP buckets spring into action in response to a changed economic condition. It looks as though this is the case with gold at the moment.
Coincidentally, gold started it's climb right after I started this thread, so a little more patience was evidently in order.

FWIW, in 2008 when the markets crashed, I remember it took about two months before the LTT and Gold in the PP kicked in to offset the stock losses. Those were two stressful months.

The other thing is that the economy doesn't instantaneously switch from one economic condition to another. The transition itself takes some time. If we are indeed in an inflationary economy (by HB's definition of the four economic cycles), then did it become inflationary in a day? Of course not, the transition took some time, and then investors in the market took even more time to react to it.

I guess I'm not surprised gold has not moved quite yet. I think when/if it becomes clear that inflation is not transitory as the Fed claims it will begin to move as a response. Further, I think gold not skyrocketing upwards is, in a sense, an indication that it is the one asset that everything else in a relative bubble with.

Either way I'm happy to sit back and watch with detached curiosity as always with the PP.

Sold 50% IAU @ 17.99 which is the equivalent of 35.98 I guess...
Another opportunity to lock in some gains before it sells off like the plague.

Gold, just like the PP...USELESS!!

What is your reasoning for expecting gold to sell off?

dockinGA wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:56 am What is your reasoning for expecting gold to sell off?

Down 2.25% at the moment and it always sells off when you hear any hype about how it has to go up.

vincent_c wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:21 am Does the recent inverse correlation help validate BTC as a store of value or not? Can we draw any conclusions at all?

I hope this is taken in the spirit that it's written in and not as an insult to anyone who owns bitcoin or believes in it's future.

I don't think there is enough history to draw any conclusion about bitcoins correlation to gold or anything else. Bitcoin is like a wild animal that goes up or down for all kinds of reasons. There is no proof of how it behaves during deflation as the money supply has been expanding for basically it's entire existence. Likewise, it hasn't existed during a serious wartime, either for the US or globally. The market participants in bitcoin have grown massively in the past few years, including institutions and their motivations for owning it and their perception of it's role or value is just not knowable until many more years pass.

At it's best, I would say it's uncorrelated to anything and moves however the crypto wind is blowing that day. It's as correlated to gold as it is to a Musk tweet. Or maybe the tweet is even more important. Economic releases, Fed statements, who knows.

Personal thought again on it as a store of value.........it is not one. It is not now, and can never be a store of value, because bitcoins have no value. they can't be used for anything, and they have no intrinsic value because no one wants them for their own sake. People only want bitcoin because they expect the price to rise. If everyone expected bitcoins price to fall, it would plunge to zero quickly and disappear from everyone's vocabulary. I expect this eventually, but who the heck knows when or what will happen along the way.

This is in stark contrast to gold which is tangible wealth. it is useful commodity, a metal with properties that make it valuable regardless of today's price or the expectation of tomorrow's price. It is also desired for it's own sake, and 90% or more of it never moves hands or location or gets used, no matter what the price swings are. Most of it just stays put in it's owners hands, waiting to be inherited by it's successors or held as a reserve of money in central bank vaults.

Bitcoin and gold have nothing do with each other, except that the bitcoin people have tried to make it look like gold by saying what they are doing is "mining" and the digital product is a "coin".

I heard a funny on the radio today.

Every time Elon Musk tweets, a bitcoin gets its wings.

Well here we are in the last quarter of the year. Inflation running much hotter than in a long time and gold down -5% this year. Any thoughts on gold’s movement or lack thereof?

Inflation was expected/priced in and crypto is taking a bite

I think maybe there has to be more gloom and doom in the air before people start fleeing to safety. As long as stocks are still cranking along and staying ahead of inflation investors aren't going to worry about it that much. A major stock market correction, coupled with continuing inflation, might just have that effect. And IMO, that's why you hold gold and when you need it.

Will be interesting to see how crypto holds up in a panic situation. Correct me if I'm wrong, but has it ever really been tested?

pp4me wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 3:06 pm I think maybe there has to be more gloom and doom in the air before people start fleeing to safety. As long as stocks are still cranking along and staying ahead of inflation investors aren't going to worry about it that much. A major stock market correction, coupled with continuing inflation, might just have that effect. And IMO, that's why you hold gold and when you need it.

Will be interesting to see how crypto holds up in a panic situation. Correct me if I'm wrong, but has it ever really been tested?

Not really any true market panics. The oldest crypto (BTC) only has price data going back to the very last days of 2009 (and that data is rather spotty until the late spring or early summer of 2010).

Crypto didn't exist for the 2008 crash, the dotcom bubble bursting, or the post-9/11 mini crash. The closest thing we have to a market panic/crash/crisis since then has been the (brief) COVID crash of 2020; IIRC BTC lost about a bit above half its value from its late 2019 peak; it then recovered along with other risk assets to post new highs by yearend 2020. To be honest it seems that BTC is so volatile that even if there wasn't a crisis it could still easily lose half its value (or double its value) in a matter of weeks. IMO any asset that wants to be seen as a safe haven (much less as a viable currency alternative) has got to become less volatile on a day-to-day basis. Hell, TQQQ, FNGU, and NUGT are all less volatile in daily and monthly std dev returns than BTC is and those are some of the wildest leveraged ETFs there are.

I'm not sure how ETH or other cryptos did during this time frame....but it might be kind of pointless to know since any hypothetical cap-weighted crypto ETF would still be overwhelmingly in BTC anyway.

Desert wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:59 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:25 pm Well here we are in the last quarter of the year. Inflation running much hotter than in a long time and gold down -5% this year. Any thoughts on gold’s movement or lack thereof?

Gold price has had an insignificant correlation with inflation over the past 50 years. Gold may make sense in a portfolio for other reasons, but not as an inflation hedge.

+1

vincent_c wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 11:20 pm

D1984 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:47 pm IMO any asset that wants to be seen as a safe haven (much less as a viable currency alternative) has got to become less volatile on a day-to-day basis. Hell, TQQQ, FNGU, and NUGT are all less volatile in daily and monthly std dev returns than BTC is and those are some of the wildest leveraged ETFs there are.

It's funny BTC is now referred to as "Boomer Coin" and kids are complaining that it's not volatile enough. The way to get past the volatility is to start moving out on the risk curve. Start exploring Ethereum (semi-alt coin), then other smart contract protocols, crypto blue chips, then you can get into smaller market caps, yield farming, liquidity mining, then IDOs, NFTs and you'll realize why BTC is a safe haven in the space.

I bought some bitcoin recently, that stuff is mad volatile. On the other hand, For the last decade I've split my investments between the PP and stocks in the VP, so maybe my perspective on volatility is warped.