Gyroscopic Investing

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:35 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:45 pm
You're welcome. I may still need to hire you to work on my software project, so I can't let you do anything so dumb.

I am finishing my degree this year and you have no idea how excited I am!

About finishing your degree or working on my project?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:09 am

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:35 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:45 pm
You're welcome. I may still need to hire you to work on my software project, so I can't let you do anything so dumb.

I am finishing my degree this year and you have no idea how excited I am!

About finishing your degree or working on my project?

Both.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:50 pm On a totally separate note. Because of the gym closures, I have not been working out. But I'm still eating like I'm working out.

I'm getting fat. Noooooo..........

Bro, haven't you heard? Everyone is going on a "coronavirus cut" while the gyms are closed. Get a head start on those washboard abs for summer.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:26 pm Several years ago, I was injured so that I could not do my three times a week weight lifting plus the the other exercises. During that time I LOST 8-10 pounds! Because I was not exercising my appetite dropped drastically. That taught me a great lesson. Exercise is great for the body (and mind) in many ways. But it is NOT a key component to weight loss. What you put in your mouth is! The type of food you eat and the quantities of food you eat are the major determinants of what you weigh. Or, at least that is my personal experience / theory.

See, Vinny knows how to cut!

Tortoise wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:39 am
Bro, haven't you heard? Everyone is going on a "coronavirus cut" while the gyms are closed. Get a head start on those washboard abs for summer.

lol I have so much restless energy right now.

I'm trying to sit still and do this assignment for my English class and I keep fidgeting...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:50 pm China's cases seem to be winding down.

Yes, based on numbers reported by the trustworthy Chinese government

Even if China's cases are indeed winding down, does China really think it can eradicate the virus when most other countries in the world are aiming for herd immunity instead of eradication? The virus won't go away; it seems to be here to stay, just like the flu.

Maybe China's plan is to attain their herd immunity through a vaccine rather than controlled spread, so they just need to keep their coronavirus cases contained (and their borders locked down) until they can mass-produce a vaccine?

Tortoise wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:27 am Yes, based on numbers reported by the trustworthy Chinese government

Even if China's cases are indeed winding down, does China really think it can eradicate the virus when most other countries in the world are aiming for herd immunity instead of eradication? The virus won't go away; it seems to be here to stay, just like the flu.

Maybe China's plan is to attain their herd immunity through a vaccine rather than controlled spread, so they just need to keep their coronavirus cases contained (and their borders locked down) until they can mass-produce a vaccine?

Some interesting food for thought. Thanks.

This is a fuzzy request, but can people on the forum with a longer tail of experience than me share their thoughts on this:

How does this period feel compared to 2008/2009? Yes, I can see the stock market numbers, I can see some old forum posts, but it's not the same as being there.

In 2008/2009 I was just starting college and I was blind to everything going on from an investment perspective. How does the atmosphere compare to you guys?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:13 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:08 pm Extremely dumb.
Do pushups at home.

But muh gainz...

Seriously though. You are a voice of reason. Thank you.

But also...

https://youtu.be/O_4hp8x4Hko?t=21

check out project kratos by drew bey and body by science by Dr. Doug McGuff, not only a great body weight program, but if you follow the understanding of exercise behind it, you may end up saving money by eliminating all future gym membership fees..

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:53 am How does this period feel compared to 2008/2009? Yes, I can see the stock market numbers, I can see some old forum posts, but it's not the same as being there.

The most salient difference, it seems to me, is that the 2008 downturn was so much more drawn out. I don't recall any drastic intra-day moves like we've seen this week; only a wearying, interminable grind down.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:26 pm...
That taught me a great lesson. Exercise is great for the body (and mind) in many ways. But it is NOT a key component to weight loss. What you put in your mouth is!

< Looks in freezer and sees all the frozen pizzas and premade meals that are seldom bought during normal, less plague-y times >
Uh-oh.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:53 am This is a fuzzy request, but can people on the forum with a longer tail of experience than me share their thoughts on this:

How does this period feel compared to 2008/2009? Yes, I can see the stock market numbers, I can see some old forum posts, but it's not the same as being there.

In 2008/2009 I was just starting college and I was blind to everything going on from an investment perspective. How does the atmosphere compare to you guys?

I was retired in 2008-09 with a portfolio on "automatic", the Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund. Worked well as I recall. At this time, I hardly remember anything really abnormal in my life from the time whether food, entertainment, or investment related. Was a big "meh" for me. My advice, be smart about the recommended actions (e.g. from the CDC and your local government) relax, turn off the news and enjoy life whatever situation you find yourself in; focus on helping others rather than just yourself. This too shall pass. A message for all the non-believers out there - I am reminded of the old Dial soap commercial "Don't you wish you used Dial?" Translation, believers focus on the peace that surpasses all understanding; it is truly a gift from God and especially important in stressful times. I wish everyone had that gift.

Mountaineer, I remember the ad although ↳ this one is before my time.
Is your point that believers wish everyone was a believer?

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:53 am This is a fuzzy request, but can people on the forum with a longer tail of experience than me share their thoughts on this:

How does this period feel compared to 2008/2009? Yes, I can see the stock market numbers, I can see some old forum posts, but it's not the same as being there.

In 2008/2009 I was just starting college and I was blind to everything going on from an investment perspective. How does the atmosphere compare to you guys?

We went through it (plus some of us also 2000-2002) so some of us are akin to battle tested war veterans. However, this has been far swifter in a more compressed amount of time. Only hopes are to bet on the long-term, don't sell, that all comes back in not that long a time.

Vinny

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:51 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:26 pm...
That taught me a great lesson. Exercise is great for the body (and mind) in many ways. But it is NOT a key component to weight loss. What you put in your mouth is!

< Looks in freezer and sees all the frozen pizzas and premade meals that are seldom bought during normal, less plague-y times >
Uh-oh.

I'm going to Stop & Shop today and looking to buy ONLY the mix of broccoli, cauliflower, carrots to put in my freezer. That will be plenty of enough vegetables to go with all the other long-term food that I already have in stock in cans and jars.

Vinny

We’ve been cooking mostly fresh food so far, but will dip into the pizza when the zombies come out.
(Homer voice) mmm, tasty zombie apocalypse.

I think I have vintage soylent in the high cupboard as well. I should throw it out.

Worst case scenario report. It's ugly. But also unlikely as it is based on the US doing little to suppress the spread of the disease. That said, this is looking really bad and we are going to have to adapt to a radical new reality until a vaccine becomes generally available.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:09 am Worst case scenario report. It's ugly. But also unlikely as it is based on the US doing little to suppress the spread of the disease. That said, this is looking really bad and we are going to have to adapt to a radical new reality until a vaccine becomes generally available.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

The article does describe the worst-case scenario, along with many others. Here's something that stuck out for me (emphasis mine):

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more. Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). Given local epidemics are not perfectly synchronised, local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time. However, we estimate that for a national GB policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time (for R0=2.4, see Table 4) until a vaccine was available.

Wow.

Okay, I'll pose the question: is it worth destroying our economy for 18 months to prevent 2.2 million deaths? The answer may well be yes, and in fact I'm not arguing that we shouldn't, but I think it's a point worth discussing. Remember it isn't just about money; these are people's livelihoods, in fact ALL of our livelihoods, at stake. And it isn't just our economy suffering during these times: it's our very society, our social cohesion, it's friendships and church families and school communities and you name it.

A major NYC hospital (New York/Presbyterian) has been posting daily video updates that are very informative. Here's today's broadcast:

https://www.ustream.tv/channel/nwaBPUvv2hk

There are links to prior updates also. tl/dr for today: healthcare workers are no longer quarantined, only told not to come into work if sick, testing is for symptomatic patients and healthcare workers (regardless of symptoms) only, PPE with N95 masks reserved for high risk procedures like intubation, and NYP is running out of PPE already (yikes).

For those wondering - I'm not on the front lines. Front lines are ER physicians, anesthesiologists, critical care, and general internal medicine. However, I can see this changing if staff start getting sick...we'll see.

ps to weigh in on Xan's question - no, 18 months not necessary for full lockdown. In both China and South Korea there are fewer new cases now, and they don't have a vaccine. I suspect that some restrictions might continue until the vaccine is available though, e.g. recommending that high risk people stay at home. Most of these people, however, are either disabled or retired and probably don't travel much anyway,

Always interesting updates, WiseOne.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 am Wow.

Okay, I'll pose the question: is it worth destroying our economy for 18 months to prevent 2.2 million deaths? The answer may well be yes, and in fact I'm not arguing that we shouldn't, but I think it's a point worth discussing.
...

Depends on which 2.2 million, specifically.

But seriously, I guess that’s a question for the experts, and only the experts.

COVID-19 SAVES LIFE!

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-willi ... ronavirus/

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/16/ex ... -heritage/

Enjoy some levity.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:31 am Always interesting updates, WiseOne.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 am Wow.

Okay, I'll pose the question: is it worth destroying our economy for 18 months to prevent 2.2 million deaths? The answer may well be yes, and in fact I'm not arguing that we shouldn't, but I think it's a point worth discussing.
...

Depends on which 2.2 million, specifically.

Absolutely! If it includes me, then burn everything else down. :-)

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:31 amps to weigh in on Xan's question - no, 18 months not necessary for full lockdown. In both China and South Korea there are fewer new cases now, and they don't have a vaccine. I suspect that some restrictions might continue until the vaccine is available though, e.g. recommending that high risk people stay at home. Most of these people, however, are either disabled or retired and probably don't travel much anyway

That's certainly comforting, and I hope the paper is wrong and you are right, WiseOne.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:37 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:31 am Always interesting updates, WiseOne.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:28 am Wow.

Okay, I'll pose the question: is it worth destroying our economy for 18 months to prevent 2.2 million deaths? The answer may well be yes, and in fact I'm not arguing that we shouldn't, but I think it's a point worth discussing.
...

Depends on which 2.2 million, specifically.

But seriously, I guess that’s a question for the experts, and only the experts.

Yes, but are the experts making the calls? Or are the politicians?

I feel like the politicians are only just beginning to listen to the experts, and of course Fauci cannot speak to the economy, nor should he. It's one of the toughest of calls, isn't it?

I have a DeBlasio-like mayor who doesn't want to close anything because of how it will affect the poor. Very noble and everything, but he also didn't want to cancel the St Patrick's Day parade. What's that about?

He finally started closing things due to pressure from the governor and other voices. If I didn't know his mind, I'd say he was secretly trying to kill the poor. Seriously, how is he helping them in the long term if they're going to be sick with this virus?

But, stretch things out a month, and I lean more towards Xan's point of view. Starvation isn't better than coronavirus.

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:20 amBut, stretch things out a month, and I lean more towards Xan's point of view. Starvation isn't better than coronavirus.

Just to be clear, I merely posed the question without endorsing action. But of course you're absolutely right that starvation is worse. I guess it's a matter of society (via elected officials) deciding whether or not we want to pay people (so they don't starve) to stay home and not spread the germ.