Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:06 pm**

jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:27 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:04 pm
jalanlong wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:59 pm I would be interested to see the correlation between poverty level and the destructiveness of Covid. In Brazil the poverty rate is over 25% and it’s over 60% in India. In my state of Texas the media made a lot of the high “case” rate here but in reality those numbers were heavily skewed towards the border towns like El Paso which also have very high poverty rates.
For what reasons would you think there is a correlation between economic demographics and how the virus affected each demographic group.

I'm not disputing your assessment. Just looking for your reasons why you believe this way.
Well I first came to that thought last year when the counties that were most struggling with Covid in Texas were poorer counties. For example, I live in Collin County which has a 4% poverty rate. Bexar County in South Texas has a 30% poverty rate. Even though Bexar has only 80% of the population of Collin County, they had 4 times more Covid deaths but actually fewer "cases." So I started reading up and found several studies that indicated that with some exceptions, the data from the US seems to indicate that Covid disproportionately affects those on the lower end of the economic ladder.

The exceptions were densely populated areas like New York or other large cities. In those locations the virus tended to be distributed evenly. However, in less populated areas the virus affected the poor much worse. The theories given were that poorer people have less access to decent health care, were not in as good of health to begin with, had less ability to stay at home or work from home and had less access to testing equipment. That last one explains why my affluent county had so many more cases of Covid reported than Bexar but a lot fewer deaths. My neighbors were probably able to get tested easier and get treated or quarantine earlier if they were positive.

I have no idea if that theory holds for country by country comparisons. But it could be why a country like India is struggling so much.

In Arizona, the Indian reservation counties were by far the worst.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 12:55 am**

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:06 pm In Arizona, the Indian reservation counties were by far the worst.

Obesity — one of the biggest Covid risk factors other than age.

https://www.apa.org/pi/oema/resources/e ... an/obesity

Nutrition and weight control have become issues of major concern for a lot of Native American communities in recent years. According to the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Minority Health, American Indian and Alaska Native adults are 1.6 times more likely to be obese than Caucasians. In addition, almost 33 percent of all American Indians and Alaskan Natives are obese.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 7:37 am**

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:42 am I am wondering for those who lean toward the virus response has been overblown, what do you guys currently think of what's going on in Brazil and India?

If we're looking for correlation - yes, both India and Brazil share a good deal of poverty. But the other thing they have in common is leadership. Both countries have a leader that has fashioned himself to some degree after our recent US leader. Populism, science denial, disdain for "experts", lack of appetite for planning, don't let Covid stand in the way of the economy, WHO who?.
In India, Modi declared Covid pretty much over in Feburary and started having rallies, including the 50,000 attendee one at a new stadium named after himself.
Lots of other factors, but leadership is one uncanny similarity.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 8:01 am**

MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:53 am
Yes, because Biden has done things sooo differently from Trump.

PG you must be referring to Biden's earpiece. Sleepy Joe is a senile, babbling fool who is surrounded by handlers. He can barely read a teleprompter. He is fed lines from an earpiece. The small percentage of the electorate that legitimately voted for him have no idea who they actually voted for, and neither do the rest of us.

The White House is occupied by an illegitimate group who seized power through a fraudulent coup with the aid of the media and intelligence agencies.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 8:57 am**

glennds wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:37 am
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:42 am I am wondering for those who lean toward the virus response has been overblown, what do you guys currently think of what's going on in Brazil and India?
If we're looking for correlation - yes, both India and Brazil share a good deal of poverty. But the other thing they have in common is leadership. Both countries have a leader that has fashioned himself to some degree after our recent US leader. Populism, science denial, disdain for "experts", lack of appetite for planning, don't let Covid stand in the way of the economy, WHO who?.
In India, Modi declared Covid pretty much over in February and started having rallies, including the 50,000 attendee one at a new stadium named after himself.
Lots of other factors, but leadership is one uncanny similarity.

I keep thinking that population density has to be a factor in how deadly COVID is in any one place. But when I look at a state-by-state comparison here in the US, this correlation is not really all that high. So my latest guess is that number of people per household or just population density per unit of area are maybe what really matters. And, for whatever reason, Southeast Asian countries have fared relatively well. I can't bring myself to believe that all countries in that part of the world have great expertise & leadership, and that all their citizens just fall in line. I wonder if there might not be some genetic protection from a past plague or something similar.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 11:07 am**

barrett wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:57 am

I keep thinking that population density has to be a factor in how deadly COVID is in any one place. But when I look at a state-by-state comparison here in the US, this correlation is not really all that high.

I live in Arizona, and I can tell you that at the early stages of the pandemic we (myself included) said, oh that's New York. It's not nearly so dense here, and the heat is a benefit, won't happen to us, and whaddya know. A couple of months later we were the national, even international headlines, leading the country in surge.

At that time, a friend of mine from India thought India would have no problem because of natural immunity. He called it "inner bulletproof vest", arising from all the exposure to germs and crowds in India. That turned out to be wrong too, at least based on what we see happening there now.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 11:09 am**

SomeDude wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 8:01 am
MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:53 am
Yes, because Biden has done things sooo differently from Trump.
PG you must be referring to Biden's earpiece. Sleepy Joe is a senile, babbling fool who is surrounded by handlers. He can barely read a teleprompter. He is fed lines from an earpiece. The small percentage of the electorate that legitimately voted for him have no idea who they actually voted for, and neither do the rest of us.

The White House is occupied by an illegitimate group who seized power through a fraudulent coup with the aid of the media and intelligence agencies.

Ah, the earpiece argument arises again!!!

You have wireless Bluetooth earbuds? Have your wife call you and talk in your ear while trying to give a speech or read something. Good luck. If he's actually getting fed stuff over an earpiece, his mental flexibility is a hell of a lot better than mine.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 11:19 am**

MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:53 am
glennds wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:37 am
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:42 am I am wondering for those who lean toward the virus response has been overblown, what do you guys currently think of what's going on in Brazil and India?
If we're looking for correlation - yes, both India and Brazil share a good deal of poverty. But the other thing they have in common is leadership. Both countries have a leader that has fashioned himself to some degree after our recent US leader. Populism, science denial, disdain for "experts", lack of appetite for planning, don't let Covid stand in the way of the economy, WHO who?.
In India, Modi declared Covid pretty much over in Feburary and started having rallies, including the 50,000 attendee one at a new stadium named after himself.
Lots of other factors, but leadership is one uncanny similarity.
Yes, because Biden has done things sooo differently from Trump.

I know, right? You must be talking about how Biden has been in press conferences thinking up treatment therapies for Covid on the fly, because he really really gets this stuff. Or maybe you attended one of his rallies. Or those tweets where Biden has been calling for LIBERATE MICHIGAN! Plus the way Old Joe is always undermining his own agencies from Intelligence, to the military, to CDC, to NIH. Do you remember when Biden promised that Google was going to put out a website for Covid resources and contact tracing, but never talked to Google about it first? And the way he sucks up to Putin.

Posted: **Sat May 01, 2021 11:02 pm**

MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 12:36 pm
glennds wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 11:19 am
MangoMan wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:53 am
glennds wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 7:37 am
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:42 am I am wondering for those who lean toward the virus response has been overblown, what do you guys currently think of what's going on in Brazil and India?
If we're looking for correlation - yes, both India and Brazil share a good deal of poverty. But the other thing they have in common is leadership. Both countries have a leader that has fashioned himself to some degree after our recent US leader. Populism, science denial, disdain for "experts", lack of appetite for planning, don't let Covid stand in the way of the economy, WHO who?.
In India, Modi declared Covid pretty much over in Feburary and started having rallies, including the 50,000 attendee one at a new stadium named after himself.
Lots of other factors, but leadership is one uncanny similarity.
Yes, because Biden has done things sooo differently from Trump.
I know, right? You must be talking about how Biden has been in press conferences thinking up treatment therapies for Covid on the fly, because he really really gets this stuff. Or maybe you attended one of his rallies. Or those tweets where Biden has been calling for LIBERATE MICHIGAN! Plus the way Old Joe is always undermining his own agencies from Intelligence, to the military, to CDC, to NIH. Do you remember when Biden promised that Google was going to put out a website for Covid resources and contact tracing, but never talked to Google about it first? And the way he sucks up to Putin.
I agree, Biden has certainly said less. In fact, so much less that even the left wing media wonders what's up.

But what has he actually done, covid-wise, different from Trump?

I guess I can't really answer. I think the vaccine roll-out has gone very well, at least in comparison to most countries. But I can't say how much credit for that goes to Trump, Biden, both, or neither.
Plus responding to Covid in Feb/March 2020 when there was little to no warning was a different set of circumstances than responding to Covid now. As much as I think Trump is a world class buffoon, I empathize that he faced the disadvantage of surprise. By the time Biden was inaugurated, Covid was a known, somewhat mature pandemic.
At least the Feds seem more unified, less chaotic under Biden. Who knows?

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 10:18 am**

So my kid's school is closing down sixth grade to online only for the next two weeks. This is because four sixth grade teachers are all down with Covid, and a handful of students have gotten it too.

It didn't take long for the parents to realize that teachers were in the high priority group in our state and had access to vaccines in late January, early February, right along with the health care workers. So the assumption is that these Covid positive teachers were among the anti-vaxx crowd, presumably exercised their right to refuse, and now the whole sixth grade is paying the price.

I wonder if this situation is a microcosm of what we will start to see if there are Covid outbreaks in workplaces, schools and various places around the country. Will blame fall on the non-vaxxed? Should it? Situations like this are bound to be politicized, and what shape will that take?

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 12:11 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 10:18 am So my kid's school is closing down sixth grade to online only for the next two weeks. This is because four sixth grade teachers are all down with Covid, and a handful of students have gotten it too.

Kind of sounds like flu season back when I was a kid in grade school.

The flu would make the rounds, and multiple teachers and students would be home sick at the same time. Happened every year or two, as I recall. Amazingly, they never shut down part or all of the school because of it.

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 10:18 am It didn't take long for the parents to realize that teachers were in the high priority group in our state and had access to vaccines in late January, early February, right along with the health care workers. So the assumption is that these Covid positive teachers were among the anti-vaxx crowd, presumably exercised their right to refuse, and now the whole sixth grade is paying the price.

Given that virtually everyone at high Covid risk has now been given the opportunity to take the vaccine, what is the point of temporarily shutting down sixth grade in-person classes because a handful of people got sick?

I’m really interested in the thought process behind that administrative decision.

As a side note, do you think it’s helpful to use the politically charged blanket term “anti-vaxx” to refer to the teachers who may have chosen not to get the Covid vaccine yet? Do you know whether they oppose all vaccines in general?

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 12:15 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 10:18 am So my kid's school is closing down sixth grade to online only for the next two weeks. This is because four sixth grade teachers are all down with Covid, and a handful of students have gotten it too.

It didn't take long for the parents to realize that teachers were in the high priority group in our state and had access to vaccines in late January, early February, right along with the health care workers. So the assumption is that these Covid positive teachers were among the anti-vaxx crowd, presumably exercised their right to refuse, and now the whole sixth grade is paying the price.

I wonder if this situation is a microcosm of what we will start to see if there are Covid outbreaks in workplaces, schools and various places around the country. Will blame fall on the non-vaxxed? Should it? Situations like this are bound to be politicized, and what shape will that take?

Perhaps some of them are breakthrough cases.

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm**

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:11 pm
As a side note, do you think it’s helpful to use the politically charged blanket term “anti-vaxx” to refer to the teachers who may have chosen not to get the Covid vaccine yet? Do you know whether they oppose all vaccines in general?

Point taken. Probably not the correct terminology. So going forward;
How about unvaxed?
Or non-vaxed?
Or sans-vax?
Vaxless?

Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 12:52 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm
Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:11 pm
As a side note, do you think it’s helpful to use the politically charged blanket term “anti-vaxx” to refer to the teachers who may have chosen not to get the Covid vaccine yet? Do you know whether they oppose all vaccines in general?
Point taken. Probably not the correct terminology. So going forward;
How about unvaxed?
Or non-vaxed?
Or sans-vax?
Vaxless?

Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.

How about "not willing to accept an experimental treatment"?

Don't misunderstand....this particular experimental treatment has a lot to recommend it, and I'm glad I got it for myself and my mom - though I am not going to let my mom take a second shot and I wish I could have avoided it for myself. But, it has always been the case that experimental treatments can only be offered under specific circumstances, and no person can legally be coerced into accepting one. It's an exceedingly bad precedent to be setting, as it reverses decades of research ethics prompted by episodes such as the Tuskegee syphilis study.

And just to reiterate, the meaning of "coercion" is wide ranging. Any perceived reward for accepting an experimental treatment, including special privileges or preferential treatment of any kind, is legally considered coercion in this context.

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 2:47 pm**

From another forum I sometimes read:

It has just been revealed that the AFT (American Federation of Teachers) actively lobbied the CDC to slow down the opening of schools. We would like to think that the CDC is not politically influenced, but this appears to give some pause to that claim.

Many...were puzzled and angered by what they saw as the CDC willfully ignoring the science and slow-walking a return to in-person learning even as mounting evidence showed schools were not a primary source of coronavirus infections as long as they followed mitigation strategies...

“What seems strange to me here is there would be this very intimate back and forth including phone calls where this political group gets to help formulate scientific guidance for our major public health organization in the United State,” Gandhi [a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco]told The Post. “This is not how science-based guidelines should work or be put together.”

The close communication between the union and the feds came despite repeated assurances from CDC and Biden officials that the medical guidelines would “follow the science” and be free of political interference.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/01/teachers- ... ng-emails/

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 3:12 pm**

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:52 pm
How about "not willing to accept an experimental treatment"?

Don't misunderstand....this particular experimental treatment has a lot to recommend it, and I'm glad I got it for myself and my mom - though I am not going to let my mom take a second shot and I wish I could have avoided it for myself. But, it has always been the case that experimental treatments can only be offered under specific circumstances, and no person can legally be coerced into accepting one. It's an exceedingly bad precedent to be setting, as it reverses decades of research ethics prompted by episodes such as the Tuskegee syphilis study.

And just to reiterate, the meaning of "coercion" is wide ranging. Any perceived reward for accepting an experimental treatment, including special privileges or preferential treatment of any kind, is legally considered coercion in this context.

I'm not sure exactly how the Emergency Use Authorization ends (not sure if it sunsets, or is terminated). But once it does, and then a given COVID-19 vaccine receives conventional FDA approval, is that the point at which it is no longer experimental?

And is the standard FDA approval process ongoing while the vaccines are being administered under EUA?

Is there any possibility that a vaccine that has been administered to hundreds of millions during it's EUA period could fail to obtain conventional FDA approval for some reasons? Imagine that.

Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 9:27 pm**

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Posted: **Sun May 02, 2021 9:43 pm**

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Posted: **Mon May 03, 2021 12:16 am**

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.

Not sure. What do we typically call people who have not received the flu vaccine by choice, for whatever reason? Are they anti-vaxx?

Posted: **Mon May 03, 2021 10:17 am**

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 12:16 am
glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.
Not sure. What do we typically call people who have not received the flu vaccine by choice, for whatever reason? Are they anti-vaxx?

I thought of one -
Conscientious abstainers?

Posted: **Mon May 03, 2021 10:45 am**

glennds wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 10:17 am
Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 12:16 am
glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.
Not sure. What do we typically call people who have not received the flu vaccine by choice, for whatever reason? Are they anti-vaxx?
I thought of one -
Conscientious abstainers?

Sure, that could work.

Other possible terms:
- People who've gotten and recovered from Covid so they're already immune
- People who've done a personal risk assessment and determined their personal risk of Covid hospitalization or death is so low there's little reason to take an experimental vaccine for it

But those are very wordy, not nearly as snappy as yours.

Posted: **Mon May 03, 2021 11:31 am**

glennds wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 10:17 am

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 12:16 am

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm
Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.

Not sure. What do we typically call people who have not received the flu vaccine by choice, for whatever reason? Are they anti-vaxx?

I thought of one -
Conscientious abstainers?

Does if fit the definition? 'a person who for reasons of conscience objects to complying with a particular requirement"

In this case it seems that would be the minority reason? The main reasons would be political ideology, trust in medicine, trust in government, and several other reasons not quickly coming to mind.

Posted: **Mon May 03, 2021 3:15 pm**

glennds wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 10:17 am

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 12:16 am

glennds wrote: ↑Sun May 02, 2021 12:40 pm
Help me out Tortoise. I'm looking for a accurate but non politically charged term to distinguish the group that has not received the Covid-19 vaccine by choice, for whatever reason.

Not sure. What do we typically call people who have not received the flu vaccine by choice, for whatever reason? Are they anti-vaxx?

I thought of one -
Conscientious abstainers?

How about this one that I heard when I was today listening to yesterday's Face The Nation:

Vaccine Hesitators

Looks like the term is already well in use as you can from an article with the term in its title:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... sm/618724/

Posted: **Tue May 04, 2021 1:48 am**

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 9:22 pm People who got COVID-19 and recovered do not have immunity. It requires a vaccine to get immunity by definition.

Interesting definition.

Vaccines work by stimulating the immune system to produce antibodies.

You know what else stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies? Getting sick with the virus and recovering from it.

The more you know...

Posted: **Tue May 04, 2021 10:56 am**

The Liberals Who Can’t Quit Lockdown

"Progressive communities have been home to some of the fiercest battles over COVID-19 policies, and some liberal policy makers have left scientific evidence behind."

Gyroscopic Investing

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