Gyroscopic Investing

Posted: **Wed Oct 01, 2014 10:39 am**

buddtholomew wrote:
Xan wrote: Is it unclear? They tax it as a collectible, not as a security.
Do you speak from experience?

1. Sell 1000 GLD 10/12
2. Buy 1000 GLD 10/13

Not a wash sale?

Apparently the IRS has not made a definitive statement, although most people think it would not be.
However, it is fairly certain that selling GLD and then buying IAU or some other ETF with a different issuer would not be a wash sale, as they would not be considered substantially identical.
Note that I'm not a tax attorney, but I would feel comfortable doing the latter myself.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 7:55 am**

I think you need a subscription, but there's a new articlette in Foreign Affairs. First paragraph:

If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country’s currency could take on unexpected strength in today’s international financial system. It would be a gamble, of course, for China to use part of its reserves to buy enough gold bullion to displace the United States from its position as the world’s largest holder of monetary gold. (As of spring 2014, U.S. holdings amounted to $328 billion.) But the penalty for being wrong, in terms of lost interest and the cost of storage, would be modest. For the rest of the world, gold prices would certainly rise, but only during the period of accumulation. They would likely fall back once China reached its goal.
...

From Golden Rule
Why Beijing Is Buying
by Alan Greenspan
Sept 29, 2014

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:19 am**

I saw something on YouTube with Jim Rickards where he said the Chinese were accumulating a massive amount of gold. Ah, here it is:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1407947161.php

Incidentally, that figure of $328 billion for the value of US gold reserves has to be way low. Total world reserves are currently valued at something around seven trillion USD, no?

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 8:23 am**

Lets separate reality from wishful thinking.

1195

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:07 am**

Acording to Wikipedia, $328 billion for US gold reserves is about right..

$8.2 Trillion is the value of all gold ever mined on the planet, but central banks only hold about 19% of that, and the US seems to have the largest holdings, at 8,133.5 tonnes of gold..

@ $1500/ounce, 1 tonne = $48.2 million, so @$1200 / ounce, 1 tonne = $38.56 million.

This gives the value of US gold reserves at $313 billion, which is pretty close to the $328, given how the price bounces around each day..

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:07 am**

buddtholomew wrote: Lets separate reality from wishful thinking.

1195

I wish my sources on gold prices would agree. At the moment, Yahoo says 1203 -- it was still stuck at 1210 this morning.
My google sheet, the code of which I learned at this forum says 1200

Code: Select all

=Index(ImportHTML("http://apmex.com/","table",1),2,2)

The app on my phone says something else, and on and on.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:09 am**

dualstow wrote:
buddtholomew wrote: Lets separate reality from wishful thinking.

1195
I wish my sources on gold prices would agree. At the moment, Yahoo says 1203 -- it was still stuck at 1210 this morning.
My google sheet, the code of which I learned at this forum says 1200
Code: Select all
=Index(ImportHTML("http://apmex.com/","table",1),2,2)
The app on my phone says something else, and on and on.

Kitco.com for live spot price.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:15 am**

Thanks, I'm going to start using that. It seems to jibe with the we-buy price for krugerrands from gold dealer AJPM - http://www.ajpm.com/gold-bullion.html

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 9:51 am**

AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Sorry just wanted to scream.

Everyone told me we'd never be under $1200 ever again. <sarc> All those gold pundits and prognosticators, wrong for years now. Sure, at some point in the future they'll be right, but for now they have led way too many people astray.

Never put all your eggs in one basket. I did for too long on both sides, early on with stocks, later with gold. STUPID.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:19 am**

Spectre wrote: Acording to Wikipedia, $328 billion for US gold reserves is about right..

$8.2 Trillion is the value of all gold ever mined on the planet, but central banks only hold about 19% of that, and the US seems to have the largest holdings, at 8,133.5 tonnes of gold..

@ $1500/ounce, 1 tonne = $48.2 million, so @$1200 / ounce, 1 tonne = $38.56 million.

This gives the value of US gold reserves at $313 billion, which is pretty close to the $328, given how the price bounces around each day..

Spectre (and Greenspan), I stand corrected. That dollar number is just shockingly low to me when I consider the size of our economy, debt, etc. Even if we shipped all our gold to China, we'd only be paying them about a third of what we owe them in treasury debt.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:36 am**

Hah, figures I just bought a bunch of gold yesterday!

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:39 am**

Spectre wrote: Acording to Wikipedia, $328 billion for US gold reserves is about right..

$8.2 Trillion is the value of all gold ever mined on the planet, but central banks only hold about 19% of that, and the US seems to have the largest holdings, at 8,133.5 tonnes of gold..

@ $1500/ounce, 1 tonne = $48.2 million, so @$1200 / ounce, 1 tonne = $38.56 million.

This gives the value of US gold reserves at $313 billion, which is pretty close to the $328, given how the price bounces around each day..

I place no credence whatever in the official statement of US gold holdings. I think it is VERY unlikely that they have any significant amount of gold left.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:39 am**

As long as LTT's don't take a dump, the PP is doing its thing today.

PS, hit a re-balance band or VP purchase?

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:40 am**

Also, the current price of $1194 means that we are up only a little more than 1% this year, since the closing price on the last day of 2013 was $1180.

Not great but certainly not THE END OF THE WORLD!!!!

Now back to your regularly scheduled screaming...

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:45 am**

buddtholomew wrote: As long as LTT's don't take a dump, the PP is doing its thing today.

PS, hit a re-balance band or VP purchase?

Nah, just a regular monthly contribution. It was gold's turn this month.

Honestly, my biggest personal investing problem is the feeling of sadness when I dump a bunch of new contribution money into a particular asset only to see it decline later that day or the next. It's irrational, I know, and I try to make it robotic and emotionless by cycling through the assets on a rotating contribution schedule to keep my flawed judgement out of it (this month was gold month, for example)... but it still sucks to buy a bunch of something and see it go down immediately!

This is IMHO one of the brilliant things about Vanguard's mutual fund platform: since it's all automated, I don't even have the opportunity to look at how what whatever I bought yesterday is doing today. My Roth IRA is more of a standard stock-and-bond portfolio but I honestly have no idea how it's even doing because I haven't had any reason to look at it for months. It's just like completely on autopilot. I wish there was a way to do that with the PP, but I've never found a way to automate gold purchases. That seems to be the biggest stumbling block to a nirvana of blissful ignorance!

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 10:50 am**

Pointedstick wrote: Hah, figures I just bought a bunch of gold yesterday!

Time will heal.

I've been deliberating about whether to buy or wait all morning. Wringing my hands.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:09 am**

I want gold to take out 1180...get it over with. Let's see what happens then.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:04 pm**

Just bought

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:11 pm**

Libertarian666 wrote:
Spectre wrote: Acording to Wikipedia, $328 billion for US gold reserves is about right..

$8.2 Trillion is the value of all gold ever mined on the planet, but central banks only hold about 19% of that, and the US seems to have the largest holdings, at 8,133.5 tonnes of gold..

@ $1500/ounce, 1 tonne = $48.2 million, so @$1200 / ounce, 1 tonne = $38.56 million.

This gives the value of US gold reserves at $313 billion, which is pretty close to the $328, given how the price bounces around each day..
I place no credence whatever in the official statement of US gold holdings. I think it is VERY unlikely that they have any significant amount of gold left.

What do you think they did with it? There's not much incentive to use it for national purposes (when you can just print money, issue bonds, or put whatever you want into a super secret military budget), so I'm guessing you think it was taken for personal use by officials or janitors??

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:28 pm**

LazyInvestor wrote: Just bought

What % markup did you have to pay?

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:12 pm**

dualstow wrote:
LazyInvestor wrote: Just bought
What % markup did you have to pay?

Got GTU... It was around -7.3% at the time of purchase...

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:31 pm**

I just purchased a batch of GDX for the VP, knowing full well that I am attempting to market time a bounce...

Curious whether others are purchasing today as part of re-balancing or attempting to time a bottom in AU.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 1:52 pm**

buddtholomew wrote: Curious whether others are purchasing today as part of re-balancing or attempting to time a bottom in AU.

Rebalancing in my case. I'm due to finish some rebalancing that I began a while ago. I found it easy to buy IAU some months ago as it's just a few quiet mouse clicks and no markup. I could not bring myself to order coins today, though, so I guess I am also guilty of timing. My heart isn't in it today.

Hopefully, if I see it fall further I will pull the trigger. If it goes back up to the mid 1200s I'll be kicking myself. In reality, though, it's not a huge difference since I'm not buying so many coins.

Posted: **Fri Oct 03, 2014 7:42 pm**

If the transaction is part of rebalancing, then congratulate yourself for sticking to the plan. Any other purchase falls into the VP category. The question is...do you feel lucky?

Personally, I could be accused of trying to "fight the last fight" and will no longer execute a trade unless a tolerance band is breached.

Posted: **Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:06 am**

dragoncar wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
Spectre wrote: Acording to Wikipedia, $328 billion for US gold reserves is about right..

$8.2 Trillion is the value of all gold ever mined on the planet, but central banks only hold about 19% of that, and the US seems to have the largest holdings, at 8,133.5 tonnes of gold..

@ $1500/ounce, 1 tonne = $48.2 million, so @$1200 / ounce, 1 tonne = $38.56 million.

This gives the value of US gold reserves at $313 billion, which is pretty close to the $328, given how the price bounces around each day..
I place no credence whatever in the official statement of US gold holdings. I think it is VERY unlikely that they have any significant amount of gold left.
What do you think they did with it? There's not much incentive to use it for national purposes (when you can just print money, issue bonds, or put whatever you want into a super secret military budget), so I'm guessing you think it was taken for personal use by officials or janitors??

It was sold out the back door to keep the gold price from going up even more than it did during the 1970's. That's the reason why the last auction they ran in those days consisted of coin melt (90% fineness) rather than good delivery bars, even though coin melt isn't as valuable due to the extra refining cost.

Gyroscopic Investing

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