Putin Invades Ukraine II

[murphy_p_t]

Does the US dollar/ruble action serve as any kind of helpful indicator where this is going?

[dualstow]

I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.

[Tortoise]

I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.

Good question. It would be nice to have him back.

Looks like he's posted about it on his blog, which is listed on his forum profile:

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com

The posts generally seem pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin.

[dualstow]

I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.

Looks like he's posted about it on his blog, which is listed on his forum profile:

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com

The posts generally seem pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin.

Ah, so he did! April 14th, at least. Thank you for that.

[Tortoise]

He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine

[dualstow]

My one-degree-of-separation in Moscow just lost her Google Drive. I’m surprised it lasted this long but she was paying for Google Suite or whatever it’s called.

[dualstow]

This guy’s in the news lately. Very recently arrested.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Shariy

[dualstow]

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ce-says-uk

How long can Russia keep this up?
How long before they’ve stretched themselves too thin between Ukraine and Syria?

[yankees60]

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ce-says-uk

How long can Russia keep this up?
How long before they’ve stretched themselves too thin between Ukraine and Syria?

1/3????!!!

NO ONE would have ever predicted that going into the invasion.

[ppnewbie]

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ce-says-uk

How long can Russia keep this up?
How long before they’ve stretched themselves too thin between Ukraine and Syria?

1/3????!!!

NO ONE would have ever predicted that going into the invasion.

My first instinct is to distrust reports like this.

[Kbg]

It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia.

There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of things look for expansion/contraction of blue and red on the map. Not perfect, but I've found it to be pretty good.

It's not going well for the Russians, there's no question about that. The Russians have lost the battles for Ukraine's largest two cities. So where the Ukrainians have focused their forces they are 2 and 0.

What I'm looking for as a significant tell is if Ukraine begins to roll back Russia significantly in the south and in the 2014 separatist areas. Ukraine really needs its coast line back and if they can't pull that off then ultimately the war could be a partial win for Russia.

I think by the fall we will have a pretty good idea how this is going to turn out (unless some unpredictable way wild pitch gets thrown by somebody).

[ppnewbie]

It's tough to get a good read on this stuff because it's pretty clear that we (western audiences) are getting all positive spin about Ukraine and all negative spin about Russia.

There are several good open and government sources that do map plots on where forces are at...to get a general sense of things look for expansion/contraction of blue and red on the map. Not perfect, but I've found it to be pretty good.

It's not going well for the Russians, there's no question about that. The Russians have lost the battles for Ukraine's largest two cities. So where the Ukrainians have focused their forces they are 2 and 0.

What I'm looking for as a significant tell is if Ukraine begins to roll back Russia significantly in the south and in the 2014 separatist areas. Ukraine really needs its coast line back and if they can't pull that off then ultimately the war could be a partial win for Russia.

I think by the fall we will have a pretty good idea how this is going to turn out (unless some unpredictable way wild pitch gets thrown by somebody).

Thanks Kbg. Very helpful.

[Mountaineer]

Has anyone heard reliable confirmation that Putin has blood cancer? If true, I wonder how that impacts the war (yes, I know, it's likely just speculation)?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-v ... recording/

[Kbg]

Has anyone heard reliable confirmation that Putin has blood cancer? If true, I wonder how that impacts the war (yes, I know, it's likely just speculation)?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/14/russias-v ... recording/

By himself, I don't think it will do much for a couple of reasons.

- Putin is held up by a power structure and that power structure is invested in itself as well. Thus, the policy line is likely to continue to not discredit the power structure.

- Let's say Putin does go and the next leader/crew takes over, they would be making the decision to be the "loser" in the war which as a general rule never goes down well domestically anywhere.

- On the flipside, him leaving does provide whomever a fall guy.

I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing (probably both), but I'm beginning to feel the war only ends with a clear defeat on the battlefield and most of that is likely due to Ukraine's take on things. I don't think the atrocities are fake and I think Ukraine understands they will never be secure going back to status quo...so just as well decide this thing once and for all win or lose as losing isn't likely to be too much worse then where they are at right now. Finally, I think the west is all in on the war and it knows it has to be up to an including dealing with nuclear weapons if Putin goes there. This provides a huge, most likely one time shot, at having this much collective support.

Henry Kissinger has been hitting the rounds lately and he's worth listening to on this stuff. It's kinda painful because he is really old, forms his thoughts and speaks slowly but mentally he's definitely still there and is one of the few remaining statesmen who used to eat situations like this for breakfast on a daily basis (e.g. nuclear weapons, geopolitics and geostrategy).

[ppnewbie]

More excellent analysis kbg.

[dualstow]

Nordic nations ever closer to joining NATO.

…
Henry Kissinger has been hitting the rounds lately and he's worth listening to on this stuff. It's kinda painful because he is really old, forms his thoughts and speaks slowly but mentally he's definitely still there and is one of the few remaining statesmen who used to eat situations like this for breakfast on a daily basis (e.g. nuclear weapons, geopolitics and geostrategy).

Why listen to him when you can read him -
• LINK (

Code: Select all

https://www.ft.com/content/cd88912d-506a-41d4-b38f-0c37cb7f0e2f

• LINK2 ( Note, this one is 2014

Code: Select all

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html

[Kbg]

The FT com one is excellent and is what I based my comment on

[dualstow]

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)

[ppnewbie]

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)

What is the significance of the steel plant?

[dualstow]

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)

What is the significance of the steel plant?

it’s my one chance to post some news that isn’t “Ukrainians foil Russians yet again” so I jumped on it.

[Kbg]

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)

What is the significance of the steel plant?

Physically, it was the last hold out that enabled interdiction of a land bridge to Crimea

Metaphorically, it turned into the Ukrainian version of the Alamo or if you're into ancient history the 300 Spartans at Thermopylae

[ppnewbie]

The Russians have taken control of the Azovstal steel plant (Mariupol)

What is the significance of the steel plant?

Physically, it was the last hold out that enabled interdiction of a land bridge to Crimea

Metaphorically, it turned into the Ukrainian version of the Alamo or if you're into ancient history the 300 Spartans at Thermopylae

Thanks!

[dualstow]

I actually feel sorry for the Russian kid on trial.

[dualstow]

Russia’s Cyber Warriors: also not hot shit?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia ... -1.6455055

[Kbg]

I actually feel sorry for the Russian kid on trial.

I get where the Ukrainians are coming from, but I think it was a stupid move at this point in time.

There's a good reason why war crimes trials are normally held AFTER the winner is determined...to wit, not setting your own soldiers up for the same.

The Russians are already heading down that road.