Will Trump be Re-elected?

[Cortopassi]

stuper,

It's absolutely the hyperbole. Vote for me or your 401ks are down the tubes. Vote for me or you Jews are being disloyal. Go back to the countries you came from. I want to buy Greenland!

Did you hear my freaking head explode? It just did!

[stuper1]

Why should your head explode? If you know it's hyperbole, why does it bother you? And when did you start thinking that any politician actually means anything that he says?

Are you worried that the Europeans will think we are uncouth because we no longer have a suave, urbane president like Obama? Who cares what they think? Take Merkel for example. She's killing Germany by letting too many immigrants in. At least we have a president who at least says that he cares about defending/protecting his country. I couldn't care less if the rest of the world thinks that he's uncouth. And truth be told, it's really just the mass media who wants us to think that they all think he's uncouth. In fact, much of the world has some grudging respect for a guy who's willing to make hyperbolic statements and stick his neck out. They probably see better than we do how he plays the media to his advantage.

[Cortopassi]

Why should your head explode? If you know it's hyperbole, why does it bother you? And when did you start thinking that any politician actually means anything that he says?

Are you worried that the Europeans will think we are uncouth because we no longer have a suave, urbane president like Obama? Who cares what they think? Take Merkel for example. She's killing Germany by letting too many immigrants in. At least we have a president who at least says that he cares about defending/protecting his country. I couldn't care less if the rest of the world thinks that he's uncouth. And truth be told, it's really just the mass media who wants us to think that they all think he's uncouth. In fact, much of the world has some grudging respect for a guy who's willing to make hyperbolic statements and stick his neck out. They probably see better than we do how he plays the media to his advantage.

The problem is, he doesn't stick his neck out. He reverses or BSes on nearly every single thing! You cannot know where he is going next. There is zero strategy or plan, it is literally how he feels that day.

--2 weeks ago he was going to push meaningful background checks and was not worried about a slippery slope. Today, the exact opposite.

--Mexico is going to pay for the wall, then not.

--Slamming Obama for all his golfing he did, while he does significantly more

--Happy about leaks when it was other people, but pissed when about him

--Employment rate significantly understated with other presidents, but apparently right on the money with him

--Tariffs? Yes, next week. No, delayed. Yes, next month. No, delayed.

--Medical pricing reform, zero talk about it once he's become president

--He gets upset that Denmark's PM called the Greenland idea absurd.

--Payroll tax cuts, we're looking at them. We're not. We are. We're not.

He is a terrible role model for kids in America.

[stuper1]

Agreed. But you could say the thing about just about any other politician. Most of them just hide it a bit better. The only real role model that counts for children is their parents and possibly a few other adults that they may have a lot of contact with.

[Mountaineer]

Why should your head explode? If you know it's hyperbole, why does it bother you? And when did you start thinking that any politician actually means anything that he says?

Are you worried that the Europeans will think we are uncouth because we no longer have a suave, urbane president like Obama? Who cares what they think? Take Merkel for example. She's killing Germany by letting too many immigrants in. At least we have a president who at least says that he cares about defending/protecting his country. I couldn't care less if the rest of the world thinks that he's uncouth. And truth be told, it's really just the mass media who wants us to think that they all think he's uncouth. In fact, much of the world has some grudging respect for a guy who's willing to make hyperbolic statements and stick his neck out. They probably see better than we do how he plays the media to his advantage.

The problem is, he doesn't stick his neck out. He reverses or BSes on nearly every single thing! You cannot know where he is going next. There is zero strategy or plan, it is literally how he feels that day.

--2 weeks ago he was going to push meaningful background checks and was not worried about a slippery slope. Today, the exact opposite.

--Mexico is going to pay for the wall, then not.

--Slamming Obama for all his golfing he did, while he does significantly more

--Happy about leaks when it was other people, but pissed when about him

--Employment rate significantly understated with other presidents, but apparently right on the money with him

--Tariffs? Yes, next week. No, delayed. Yes, next month. No, delayed.

--Medical pricing reform, zero talk about it once he's become president

--He gets upset that Denmark's PM called the Greenland idea absurd.

--Payroll tax cuts, we're looking at them. We're not. We are. We're not.

He is a terrible role model for kids in America.

Life in my neighborhood is just about the same as it was a week ago, a month ago, a year ago, 10 years ago. The sun still shines, the grass still grows, my income and expenses are relatively the same, my family still loves each other, I still have frequent dinners with friends, I still go to church every week and hear inspiring sermons and receive the gifts of Jesus. But I'm one of those weird types who tries not to worry about things I can't control, and I rarely watch TV news, or much TV at all for that matter. Life is so much more peaceful that way.

[Cortopassi]

Life in my neighborhood is just about the same as it was a week ago, a month ago, a year ago, 10 years ago. The sun still shines, the grass still grows, my income and expenses are relatively the same, my family still loves each other, I still have frequent dinners with friends, I still go to church every week and hear inspiring sermons and receive the gifts of Jesus. But I'm one of those weird types who tries not to worry about things I can't control, and I rarely watch TV news, or much TV at all for that matter. Life is so much more peaceful that way.

I understand exactly what you are saying. It is the same for me. Kids back in school, my bees are doing well, weather has been really good around Chicago. Biked 700 miles this summer so far.

But, but but...!

I cut back on the news as well. Trump, though, dominates the discussion in any little news watching or reading I do. America is better than this. What happened to that shining city on the hill? Oh, yeah, that's a Trump hotel.

[dualstow]

And truth be told, it's really just the mass media who wants us to think that they all think he's uncouth.

Mass media, mass media, mass media.
All you need is a goddamn live camera.

[Mountaineer]

Life in my neighborhood is just about the same as it was a week ago, a month ago, a year ago, 10 years ago. The sun still shines, the grass still grows, my income and expenses are relatively the same, my family still loves each other, I still have frequent dinners with friends, I still go to church every week and hear inspiring sermons and receive the gifts of Jesus. But I'm one of those weird types who tries not to worry about things I can't control, and I rarely watch TV news, or much TV at all for that matter. Life is so much more peaceful that way.

I understand exactly what you are saying. It is the same for me. Kids back in school, my bees are doing well, weather has been really good around Chicago. Biked 700 miles this summer so far.

But, but but...!

I cut back on the news as well. Trump, though, dominates the discussion in any little news watching or reading I do. America is better than this. What happened to that shining city on the hill? Oh, yeah, that's a Trump hotel.

Perhaps, just perhaps, that shining city on the hill is not a light at all but just a reflection of our current "me, me, me, it's all about me" focused culture. Maybe the 11th commandment has been found on that tablet Moses broke when he saw the golden calf: "Thou shalt love only self and have no tolerance for those who think and act differently than yourself." Short version: I worship the idol of self.

[ochotona]

Perhaps, just perhaps, that shining city on the hill is not a light at all but just a reflection of our current "me, me, me, it's all about me" focused culture. Maybe the 11th commandment has been found on that tablet Moses broke when he saw the golden calf: "Thou shalt love only self and have no tolerance for those who think and act differently than yourself." Short version: I worship the idol of self.

BINGO. you win the prize for insight.

And the Left and Trump supporters are both doing the same exact thing.

Whether you think modern Americans of all races should pay slavery reparations and if you disagree you are a hate criminal

Or whether you carry a Tiki torch through a University town screaming "Jews will not replace us"

It's all the same sick, sour narcissism and intolerance

And shockingly, so many of them are Millennials! You'd think it would be the sick old farts, but it's young men. I use the word men intentionally, because it's the men who could physically harm you, and are daring and stupid enough to try.

[Cortopassi]

Trump for sure is keeping the markets interesting!

[pmward]

Trumpypoo just signaled 5% increased tariffs on all existing goods (25%-30%), and the new goods slated for Sept 1 (10%-15%). He is just not going to stop until the U.S. economy is in shambles. What a fool. He is literally single handedly bringing our economy to its knees.

January 2018: "The economy looks to be invincible, stocks do nothing but go up, it appears that nothing can stop it."
Trump: "Hold my beer..."

[flyingpylon]

Do “stocks” = “the economy”?

There are some that say there’s a big difference between Wall Street and Main Street.

Just throwin’ it out there.

[pmward]

Do “stocks” = “the economy”?

There are some that say there’s a big difference between Wall Street and Main Street.

Just throwin’ it out there.

Stocks and the economy are highly correlated. Both are looking very weak right now, and it's entirely one man's fault.

[ochotona]

If equities go down, we will get a large negative wealth effect.

[shekels]

The problem is, he doesn't stick his neck out. He reverses or BSes on nearly every single thing! You cannot know where he is going next. There is zero strategy or plan, it is literally how he feels that day.

--2 weeks ago he was going to push meaningful background checks and was not worried about a slippery slope. Today, the exact opposite.

--Mexico is going to pay for the wall, then not.

--Slamming Obama for all his golfing he did, while he does significantly more

--Happy about leaks when it was other people, but pissed when about him

--Employment rate significantly understated with other presidents, but apparently right on the money with him

--Tariffs? Yes, next week. No, delayed. Yes, next month. No, delayed.

--Medical pricing reform, zero talk about it once he's become president

--He gets upset that Denmark's PM called the Greenland idea absurd.

--Payroll tax cuts, we're looking at them. We're not. We are. We're not.

He is a terrible role model for kids in America.

Just looks to me like Trump is thinking out load again. Trump is NOT what people are use to, and that may make all the difference.

[shekels]

Do “stocks” = “the economy”?

There are some that say there’s a big difference between Wall Street and Main Street.

Just throwin’ it out there.

Stocks and the economy are highly correlated. Both are looking very weak right now, and it's entirely one man's fault.

Stocks are Not the Economy.. Yes they correlate but how many algorithms, speculators, traders produce anything?
The money in the Stocks/market just in part aid in the production of the goods and service.

I am not sure who you think the one man who's fault this is, but there is plenty of fault to go around.

Lets go back to the year 1913 and start from there on who's fault it is.
I will begin with the FED and President Woodrow Wilson along with those in Congress.

[Libertarian666]

Do “stocks” = “the economy”?

There are some that say there’s a big difference between Wall Street and Main Street.

Just throwin’ it out there.

Stocks and the economy are highly correlated. Both are looking very weak right now, and it's entirely one man's fault.

Stocks are Not the Economy.. Yes they correlate but how many algorithms, speculators, traders produce anything?
The money in the Stocks/market just in part aid in the production of the goods and service.

I am not sure who you think the one man who's fault this is, but there is plenty of fault to go around.

Lets go back to the year 1913 and start from there on who's fault it is.
I will begin with the FED and President Woodrow Wilson along with those in Congress.

Yes, 1913 was a very bad year for the republic.

[pmward]

I do think that he is the most vulnerable of any president in my lifetime (Reagan on). I think he is even more vulnerable than Bush Sr. was. I mean Trump has done nothing but be his own worst enemy for the last 2 years of his term. I have never seen the general public so violently opposed to a president before. He has a small but incredibly loyal core base (when I say small, I mean they are too small to get him re-elected on their own), but he won the election from the blue collar swing vote, and he has done nothing but piss on those blue collar swing voters since being elected. I think the Dems know that's why they lost, and they know those people are disgruntled, so they will be a key target for the Dems. The problem? Do the Dems actually have a strong candidate? I don't think they do. The most popular candidates they have are socialists. The only thing worse than Trump is socialism. If they have some surprise strong non-socialist candidate emerge and rise to the top of the pack, I think Trump goes down easily. However, without a halfway decent opponent, we are all stuck with with Trump for another very long 4 years.

[dualstow]

When I started this poll 2 years ago, the two top vote getters, with well over 50% of the total votes, involved Trump getting re-elected. Are you guys starting to think otherwise? Sorry to get off topic here.

I have been turned around by people on this forum and other sources. Open-minded or soft-headed? Either way, I am now confident that he has very good odds of winning.

Yes, I still take potshots at his character. And we will only know in retrospect whether all this tariff bluster is going to get China to shape up, or if the end result is going to be large companies scrambling to move manufacturing to Vietnam while many small and medium businesses simply die. But there are some things that he does that I like.

Sometimes you have to do what’s right, not what’s popular in the warped worlds of twitter or reddit.

I’m not sure I could vote for the guy, but I wonder who’s out there who could defeat him.

[dualstow]

Well my prediction is that by this time next year or sooner, the tariff war is over and the stock market rallies him to victory.

The stock newsletter guy I listen to has been repeatedly saying much the same thing. He’s selling a stock newsletter so one has to consider the source, but it’s good to hear, even if cheap stocks are probably better for my future than soaring stocks and the comfort they bring.

[Kriegsspiel]

I don't think there's a Democratic candidate that can beat him. They really seem to have turned a corner.

[Smith1776]

Alright guys, placing my current bets as follows:

- 1 gram of gold on Bernie Sanders winning
- 1 ounce of silver on Elizabeth Warren winning

Additional bets pending.

[Xan]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

[pmward]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

This would make my dreams come true Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.

[Kriegsspiel]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

This would make my dreams come true Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.

He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.