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Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:05 pm
by Ad Orientem
The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win
If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.”
That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead.
Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card.
In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off.
So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers.
Read the rest here...
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-p ... e=Homepage
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:13 pm
by yankees60
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:05 pm
The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win
If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.”
That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead.
Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card.
In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off.
So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers.
Read the rest here...
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-p ... e=Homepage
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Vinny
Above all, Mr. Cahaly’s approach centers on the belief that everyone lies, but especially conservatives. This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. To hear him explain it, traditional pollsters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled by “social desirability bias”: the tendency for respondents to say what they think an interviewer wants to hear, not what they actually believe. In Mr. Trump’s America, he says, that problem has grown worse.
“I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Mr. Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.”
Four years ago, he addressed this by asking people both whom they would support for president and whom they thought their neighbors would support. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:57 am
by Cortopassi
I don't drink much anymore, but I should have brought a bottle of something to work today!
So many stories on well, we think we're right but we could be completely wrong...
And see:
https://factcheck.afp.com/altered-video ... s-location
You just can't believe a darn thing anymore. A 10 year old can doctor a video or photo nowadays.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:08 am
by doodle
yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:13 pm
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:05 pm
The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win
If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.”
That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead.
Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card.
In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off.
So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers.
Read the rest here...
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-p ... e=Homepage
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Vinny
Above all, Mr. Cahaly’s approach centers on the belief that everyone lies, but especially conservatives. This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. To hear him explain it, traditional pollsters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled by “social desirability bias”: the tendency for respondents to say what they think an interviewer wants to hear, not what they actually believe. In Mr. Trump’s America, he says, that problem has grown worse.
“I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Mr. Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.”
Four years ago, he addressed this by asking people both whom they would support for president and whom they thought their neighbors would support. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result.
Here's a prediction....the slide in US status on the world stage will continue as we increasingly become the equivalent of that crazy uncle at the Christmas party.
our education system has already become a punchline..
https://youtu.be/OTLF4b8uCVc
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:39 am
by yankees60
yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:58 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:54 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:33 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:41 pm
YOUR LAST CHANCE!!!!
Yes, your last chance to see Trump's last live rally prior to tomorrow's Election Day.
Right now on C-Span Pence is just starting to speak as warmup to the real event (Trump) coming out to speak.
Pence just reinforced that is only 80 minutes away from Election Day.
Vinny
He is running really late now!!! Still has not yet shown up!
Pence ran out of things to say.
Just heard an excellent song from the 80s! Now they are getting inexplicably playing "Fortunate Son". A favorite of mine but I guess most Trump people at rallies have no concept of the lyrics and Trump!
Vinny
STILL waiting for Trump to show up! Only six more minutes before it officially IS Election Day in Michigan!
Vinny
He JUST appeared with 3 minutes to spare!
Vinny
Trump was his usual, thoroughly entertaining self.
He went straight through until around 1:15 AM. Therefore over 1 1/4 hours straight, non-stop, Trump riffing.
There was one hilarious portion of it when they showed what seemed like 10 minutes of back-to-back-to-back-to..... of various videos of Biden "talking", which, of course, put Biden in an unflattering light.
So, in sum, my biased assessment is that at his age Trump has a lot of stamina to perform as he did at that hour of the night / morning and he is ALWAYS extremely entertaining. But still with NO qualifications to be president.
As I said a few days ago, he'd do an excellent job replacing Rush L. Probably no one else would be capable of increasing Rush L's ratings upon replacing him.
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:33 am
by Tortoise
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:57 am
I don't drink much anymore, but I should have brought a bottle of something to work today!
So many stories on well, we think we're right but we could be completely wrong...
Remote work for the win! My liquor cabinet is a few short steps away.
There's no need to doctor any Biden videos to make him look out to lunch. There are already so many real video clips that do it! Like his recent "Trunalimunumaprzure" gem. Behold, the
Mary Poppins remix!
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:34 pm
by Cortopassi
Or do republicans just gamble more?
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:29 pm
by sophie
Florida looking like it will go for Trump by 300K votes so far. This compares to Trump's 100K margin in 2016.
The polls were wrong. By a lot. It's already clear. And Trump has gotten more black and Hispanic votes than the polls predicted, and way more than 2016. Sorry couldn't spot the precise #s fast enough.
However, Florida isn't the whole story...it'll be a long time before the result is known. Pennsylvania is going to be key, and they won't even start counting their mailed ballots for another 3 days.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:00 pm
by Lonestar
sophie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:29 pm
However, Florida isn't the whole story...it'll be a long time before the result is known. Pennsylvania is going to be key, and they won't even start counting their mailed ballots for another 3 days.
Florida: the state of the hanging chad..................
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:23 pm
by Tortoise
MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:15 pm
Stocks up big today. Foreshadowing a Trump victory? If traders thought Biden would win, the market would sell off hard, no?
The MSM headlines today told me that stocks were up on expectations of a Biden presidency, because he'll provide Covid-1984 financial relief to businesses.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:07 pm
by yankees60
Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 am
Here's what I think is most likely to happen:
There have not yet been any reversals in any of these states.
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:17 pm
by yankees60
- Capture.JPG (38.93 KiB) Viewed 5389 times
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:50 pm
by Ad Orientem
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:17 pmCapture.JPG
I checked my ballot a couple of weeks ago and it had been counted. Unfortunately, to no avail.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 pm
by yankees60
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:07 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 am
Here's what I think is most likely to happen:
There have not yet been any reversals in any of these states.
Vinny
Still looks like no states have reversed.....
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 pm
by Ad Orientem
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:07 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 am
Here's what I think is most likely to happen:
There have not yet been any reversals in any of these states.
Vinny
Still looks like no states have reversed.....
Vinny
Biden has flipped AZ. But otherwise your correct.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:46 pm
by yankees60
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:16 pm
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:07 pm
Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:21 am
Here's what I think is most likely to happen:
There have not yet been any reversals in any of these states.
Vinny
Still looks like no states have reversed.....
Vinny
Biden has flipped AZ. But otherwise your correct.
I have not yet seen that take place here:
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-u ... s-live-map
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:11 am
by Ad Orientem
Only a very small percentage of the early and mail in votes for WI, MI and PA have been counted. Those tend to break heavily Democratic.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:14 am
by Ad Orientem
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:46 pm
Still looks like no states have reversed.....
Vinny
Biden has flipped AZ. But otherwise your correct.
[/quote]
I have not yet seen that take place here:
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-u ... s-live-map
Vinny
[/quote]
FOX(!) actually called it. They have taken some heat from Republicans who are saying not all the votes have been counted. (We shall ignore the breathtaking hypocrisy for the moment.) But FOX is firmly standing by their call saying Trump cannot get anywhere near enough votes to overcome his deficit there.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:25 am
by yankees60
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:14 am
yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:46 pm
Still looks like no states have reversed.....
Vinny
Biden has flipped AZ. But otherwise your correct.
I have not yet seen that take place here:
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-u ... s-live-map
Vinny
[/quote]
FOX(!) actually called it. They have taken some heat from Republicans who are saying not all the votes have been counted. (We shall ignore the breathtaking hypocrisy for the moment.) But FOX is firmly standing by their call saying Trump cannot get anywhere near enough votes to overcome his deficit there.
[/quote]
Still no Arizona here. It has Trump leading 212 to 209.
https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-u ... s-live-map
C-Span said that they were going to be going by AP, which seemed to have all kinds of checks and standards before they call a state. Have not seen a recent update from them on totals.
Vinny
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:28 am
by yankees60
Here has Trump losing 210-215, with Arizona not going for him...
https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-election-results
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:28 am
by Ad Orientem
I am tired and we are not going to know the winner tonight. Time for bed.
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:34 am
by Smith1776
Tentatively.... I think we're looking at a Trump victory here?
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:47 am
by yankees60
Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:28 am
I am tired and we are not going to know the winner tonight. Time for bed.
I am seeing 220-213, not in Trump's favor.
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:48 am
by yankees60
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:34 am
Tentatively.... I think we're looking at a Trump victory here?
How so? And, if he does win, do you want to trade country leaders??!!!
Vinny
Re: Some 2020 General Election Polls
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:14 am
by sophie
I'm not quite as confident, tech.
It depends on where the missing votes are coming from. In a couple of cases (like Georgia, Michigan, and PA to an extent) it's the big cities where there are a lot of votes that lean heavily Democratic. In others like PA, it's the mail-in ballots which are also heavily Democratic.
I share your sentiment that the last-minute change to the mail-in rules in PA was motivated by partisan interests and needs to be reviewed by the Supreme Court. It was always understood that you had to get your ballot in early, in time for the election. I can see both sides of the argument, but we need some smart constitutionalists to make a precedent-setting decision.