Gyroscopic Investing

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:56 pm Honestly, I’d love to share my comedy work with you guys, as I consider you friends. But of course, posting about it here would necessitate giving away both my appearance and identity in a totally public forum.

I’ve been thinking of how I can share more discretely. Perhaps starting a thread and PMing links to people who express interest.

Maybe just the audio ?

Some old audio clips are brilliant - https://ia802704.us.archive.org/21/item ... MyToga.mp3

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:57 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:28 pm The last time I saw a live comedian perform was around 1987.

Vinny heckles comedians —> stock market crashes

Now that you make me think about it more it was at our company's Christmas Party either December 1986 or December 1985. I left that company the month before the 1987 one day market crash as I was on to my next job the day that occurred.

Vinny

Hal wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:03 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:56 pm Honestly, I’d love to share my comedy work with you guys, as I consider you friends. But of course, posting about it here would necessitate giving away both my appearance and identity in a totally public forum.

I’ve been thinking of how I can share more discretely. Perhaps starting a thread and PMing links to people who express interest.

Maybe just the audio ?

Some old audio clips are brilliant - https://ia802704.us.archive.org/21/item ... MyToga.mp3

Hmmm another interesting option. If possible I'd like to keep the video, as I think it would make the content more impactful. But you bring up a good point, it may be the best compromise.

ochotona wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:22 pm This is one time where I'm thankful for my suburban house, and low population density here. I can get out by car, walking, or bicycle and not be exposed to anyone. I'm also tele-working.

I wish I were in a low-density area this season. I’m anticipating flash mobs as the schools close.
My folks used to have a cottage on a lake and some friends have advised me to escape to that place. It’s soldddd

And yet, things are peaceful here so far. Nice weather. Quiet. Air is cleaner than usual.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:43 am

Hal wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:03 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:56 pm Honestly, I’d love to share my comedy work with you guys, as I consider you friends. But of course, posting about it here would necessitate giving away both my appearance and identity in a totally public forum.

I’ve been thinking of how I can share more discretely. Perhaps starting a thread and PMing links to people who express interest.

Maybe just the audio ?

Some old audio clips are brilliant - https://ia802704.us.archive.org/21/item ... MyToga.mp3

Hmmm another interesting option. If possible I'd like to keep the video, as I think it would make the content more impactful. But you bring up a good point, it may be the best compromise.

Whatever you choose, do it quick. Pandemic jokes aren't funny until everyone gets it.

When I was reading up on European plagues I learned that, unsurprisingly, people developed a devil-may-care live-for-the-moment attitude after some time. I knew how deadly the plagues were, numerically. I did not know how long they lasted and how they kept coming back. I’m ready for lots of gallows humor to cheer me up.

Monty Python: Bring out your dead!

"This is America, and I'll do what I want."
https://mashable.com/article/people-bar ... istancing/

Maddy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:01 am "This is America, and I'll do what I want."
https://mashable.com/article/people-bar ... istancing/

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Gavin Newsome had the right idea: everyone over 65 should stay home.
Of course I have no idea how he could enforce this, but maybe some will listen.
The biggest problem for people who aren't morons is that no one will get treatment for anything but CV during the peak.
Unless they set up tent hospitals just for CV patients, or something like that.
As my wife said last evening, "I guess we've lived long enough to expect a pandemic in our lifetimes."

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:35 am When I was reading up on European plagues I learned that, unsurprisingly, people developed a devil-may-care live-for-the-moment attitude after some time. I knew how deadly the plagues were, numerically. I did not know how long they lasted and how they kept coming back. I’m ready for lots of gallows humor to cheer me up.

Incels, take heart! The Wuhan is your fren!

The deaths of the young in the Second Pest halted repopulation, haunting the age with a sense of decline. In the urge to procreate, women in England, according to Polychromicon, "took any kind of husbands, strangers, the feeble and imbeciles alike, and without shame mated with inferiors."
- Tuchman, A Distant Mirror

Wow, Spain has passed South Korea in cases and deaths.
https://ncov2019.live/

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:05 am The biggest problem for people who aren't morons is that no one will get treatment for anything but CV during the peak.
Unless they set up tent hospitals just for CV patients, or something like that.

I was in Singapore in May of 2003 and this is how hospitals were set up there. There were a bunch of tents just outside the main hospital where SARS patients were being treated. Of course it was plenty warm there, actually too hot, I am guessing.

Canada doesn't have that many cases (I know they have a small population).

We're relatively fortunate in many countries with a sizable Chinese demographic that the virus was discovered well before Chinese New Year, well in time to cancel flights.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:15 am And yet, things are peaceful here so far. Nice weather. Quiet. Air is cleaner than usual.

Last night when I was in my garage, I stopped for a moment and noticed that it was completely silent outside.

I live several blocks from a freeway, so usually there's soft white noise in the distance coming from the freeway, even late at night. But last night, for the first time in over two years of living in this house, I didn't hear anything in the distance.

It was kind of eerie.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:48 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:15 am And yet, things are peaceful here so far. Nice weather. Quiet. Air is cleaner than usual.

Last night when I was in my garage, I stopped for a moment and noticed that it was completely silent outside.

I live several blocks from a freeway, so usually there's soft white noise in the distance coming from the freeway, even late at night. But last night, for the first time in over two years of living in this house, I didn't hear anything in the distance.

It was kind of eerie.

I live on one of the most traveled, main roads in my rural area. My street is 40 mph speed limit. I had the converse experience. I was surprised to wake up and hear in the distance (my bed is in the back part of the house from the road) a lot of cars continuing to whiz by like any other morning. And, still surprised this afternoon to see them going by.

Vinny

Speaking of silence, I saw that movie-going has dropped to a 22 year low, and hundreds of theaters are closing. Thank GOD this crisis happened now, when Hollywood has basically given up on making good movies, and all we're missing is X-Men 14 and woke James Bond. Can you imagine if this happened when Hollywood still made good movies? Still more proof we live in a simulation.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:23 pm Speaking of silence, I saw that movie-going has dropped to a 22 year low, and hundreds of theaters are closing. Thank GOD this crisis happened now, when Hollywood has basically given up on making good movies, and all we're missing is X-Men 14 and woke James Bond. Can you imagine if this happened when Hollywood still made good movies? Still more proof we live in a simulation.

I am quite impressed with the quality of many of the movies I've seen made by both Amazon and Netflix. Are those NOT considered Hollywood movies? And, do they cost the same to make as a typical Hollywood movie? In their case, they are not getting money direct from box office sales but presumably doing so to both retain and increase their memberships?

Vinny

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... virus.html

BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump tells America to go on lockdown with '15 days to stop the spread,' saying old and vulnerable people must stay home, social gatherings over 10 must end, bars and restaurants should close and school should be at home

Vinny

First it was avoid gatherings of over 250 people, then it was 50, then 25, now 10.

By the end of the day they’ll just cut to the chase and say, “Fuck it, no gatherings at all.”

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:45 pm First it was avoid gatherings of over 250 people, then it was 50, then 25, now 10.

By the end of the day they’ll just cut to the chase and say, “Fuck it, no gatherings at all.”

Unseen: the friendless autistic savant biologist who created the Wu-flu ecstatically rocking back and forth and hand fluttering in his basement laboratory.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:32 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:23 pm Speaking of silence, I saw that movie-going has dropped to a 22 year low, and hundreds of theaters are closing. Thank GOD this crisis happened now, when Hollywood has basically given up on making good movies, and all we're missing is X-Men 14 and woke James Bond. Can you imagine if this happened when Hollywood still made good movies? Still more proof we live in a simulation.

I am quite impressed with the quality of many of the movies I've seen made by both Amazon and Netflix. Are those NOT considered Hollywood movies? And, do they cost the same to make as a typical Hollywood movie? In their case, they are not getting money direct from box office sales but presumably doing so to both retain and increase their memberships?

Vinny

I agree that we’re living in a new golden age of television. Fargo, Better Call Saul.I think we had a thread about this in 2013-4. Movies are worse, TV is getting better now that we’re out of the reality TV swamp.

And, I don’t mean to pile on the Chinese (wet markets selling civet meat...), but I think mainland Chinese money has helped to make Hollywood really boring. But that’s for another thread.

On topic: theaters are closed.

Holy shit guys. The Dow has dropped 13% today alone.

There are actually some Grahamian bargains that are now popping up with particular hard hit stocks/industries. Cineplex has fallen 80 some odd percent since this all started.

Also, I’ve watched Contagion like 3 times as many weeks at this point.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:06 pm Holy shit guys. The Dow has dropped 13% today alone.

I have an acquaintance who is not a pp’er and who owns no stocks to speak of. Just real estate. He has always said he’s waiting for a ‘real drop’ to get in the market. I think his day has come.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:06 pm Holy shit guys. The Dow has dropped 13% today alone.

There are actually some Grahamian bargains that are now popping up with particular hard hit stocks/industries. Cineplex has fallen 80 some odd percent since this all started.

Also, I’ve watched Contagion like 3 times as many weeks at this point.

10 year treasuries are yielding 0.72% and S&P 500 ETF 30 day SEC yields are all around 2.25%. By that metric, stocks in general are a bargain. An inversion of stock yields to bond yields should never happen, and that extreme of a spread is not sustainable.

pmward wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:12 pm
10 year treasuries are yielding 0.72% and S&P 500 ETF 30 day SEC yields are all around 2.25%. By that metric, stocks in general are a bargain. An inversion of stock yields to bond yields should never happen, and that extreme of a spread is not sustainable.

It’s bargain hunting time in the VP!

pmward wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:12 pm

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:06 pm Holy shit guys. The Dow has dropped 13% today alone.

There are actually some Grahamian bargains that are now popping up with particular hard hit stocks/industries. Cineplex has fallen 80 some odd percent since this all started.

Also, I’ve watched Contagion like 3 times as many weeks at this point.

10 year treasuries are yielding 0.72% and S&P 500 ETF 30 day SEC yields are all around 2.25%. By that metric, stocks in general are a bargain. An inversion of stock yields to bond yields should never happen, and that extreme of a spread is not sustainable.

Stock yields used to be higher than bond yields all the time.
That's because stocks used to be riskier than bonds.
Good thing we're past those old times!