Gyroscopic Investing

Dieter wrote: ↑Fri Dec 25, 2020 1:25 am "What if instead of a vaccine we just were able to get exposed to a weak version of the virus that enabled us to build the antibodies we need to fight the real thing"

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status ... 4718113794

What a splendid idea. Call it something like Viral Antibody Calibrated Creation via INnocuous Exposure.

Although might need to abbreviate that somehow

I like where you are going with this

Cracks me up though, when people propose that the vaccine provides better immunity than infection.
And while the vaccine is likely not as risky as infection. We're just rolling the dice.

Why shouldn't I get the same 'good citizen' points for trying to get infected as someone who volunteers for a vaccine.
Am I not doing my part to stem the tide? At great personal sacrifice.

Cloth mask pansy here. Since my reputation is already ruined I don’t mind pointing out that yes, not only are there men’s formula shampoos, but there are also beard shampoos.

You probably shouldn’t wash your face with soap as it can clog your pores. Purpose from Johnson & Johnson is a good cleanser with minimal junk it in it.

Soap might also clog your scalp more than shampoo would- I’m not sure. I used to use Dr Bronner’s peppermint soap for everything.

dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Dec 25, 2020 2:52 pm Cloth mask pansy here. Since my reputation is already ruined I don’t mind pointing out that yes, not only are there men’s formula shampoos, but there are also beard shampoos.

You probably shouldn’t wash your face with soap as it can clog your pores. Purpose from Johnson & Johnson is a good cleanser with minimal junk it in it.

Soap might also clog your scalp more than shampoo would- I’m not sure. I used to use Dr Bronner’s peppermint soap for everything.

I just completed day two of no shampoo or soap.

Entire body feels clean. Beard feels clean. But, again, while the hair feels clean it is also flat. But no real issue. Just a distinct difference from not using shampoo.

By the way, my hot water is heated to 120 degrees and I'm fairly close to using the hot water straight with little cold water mixed in.

I'm a big baby when it comes to feeling cold in any way but, in general, I'm almost in all ways say, "Bring on the heat!"

75.9 in this room with my two feet on the 100 watt foot warmer.

Vinny

I don't do this anymore, but I tried washing my hair with an egg yolk for awhile.

It's a pain in the neck to separate an egg before your shower, but it works extremely well and has zero soap. The lecithin in the yolk is an emulsifier and binds the fat in your hair to the shower water. Basically it makes mayonnaise out of your scalp grease, which just rinses out with the shower water. Don't use super hot water or you'll end up with cooked egg in your hair.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:34 pm I don't do this anymore, but I tried washing my hair with an egg yolk for awhile.

It's a pain in the neck to separate an egg before your shower, but it works extremely well and has zero soap. The lecithin in the yolk is an emulsifier and binds the fat in your hair to the shower water. Basically it makes mayonnaise out of your scalp grease, which just rinses out with the shower water. Don't use super hot water or you'll end up with cooked egg in your hair.

Interesting. You can buy egg yolk lecithin in powder form, either loose or in capsules. It's expensive, but I wonder if that would work.

I've tried using shampoo bars but they leave a ton of crud in my hair that has to washed out with a clarifying shampoo. I've also tried a bunch of "no-poo" alternatives but they either didn't clean my hair or they left a lot of buildup. I guess long hair is a whole different ball game from a typical guy haircut. With really short hair, I bet just plain water with some scrubbing in the shower might even work just fine.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Fri Dec 25, 2020 9:21 pm Interesting. You can buy egg yolk lecithin in powder form, either loose or in capsules. It's expensive, but I wonder if that would work.

Now you've got me curious to try the powder form. I just added some to my Amazon cart and next time I'm near a locker I'll pick some up.

I'll report back. For science.

Recap of lockdown costs, with citations

https://www.thebellows.org/the-great-covid-class-war/

edit1: science https://www.youtube.com/c/VincentRacaniello/videos

I was thinking which industry has most vested interest in getting covid mortality correct without the virtue signal.

Life insurance. Premiums have not increased.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/has-c ... 2020-12-07

MangoMan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:20 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:59 am I was thinking which industry has most vested interest in getting covid mortality correct without the virtue signal.

Life insurance. Premiums have not increased.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/has-c ... 2020-12-07

Very, very interesting.

Yes, that is a pretty good signal that the whole thing is extremely overblown.

Doesn't that just mean that people who have their lives insured aren't statistically more likely to die? Pretty much that excludes anybody who's retired, doesn't it?

We do already know that in terms of life and death, people pre-retirement are at very little risk. That doesn't mean that it isn't killing too many people 60+. And it doesn't mean that younger people aren't suffering weird symptoms that can persist for a long time and perhaps cause lifelong damage.

Just playing devil's advocate here.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:40 am

Xan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:27 am Doesn't that just mean that people who have their lives insured aren't statistically more likely to die? Pretty much that excludes anybody who's retired, doesn't it?

We do already know that in terms of life and death, people pre-retirement are at very little risk. That doesn't mean that it isn't killing too many people 60+. And it doesn't mean that younger people aren't suffering weird symptoms that can persist for a long time and perhaps cause lifelong damage.

Just playing devil's advocate here.

That alone is of value in terms of the hysteria.

I should clarify that I'm saying that young people suffering such issues would likely not be reflected in life insurance premiums. But maybe it would be..?

There is this from the article:

University of Kentucky and Illinois State University economists did discover fewer policies being extended to the oldest of potential policyholders, above age 75. But even then, the cost of those premiums did not noticeably increase. By July, there was a 13.6% drop in the number of policies offered for one-, five- and 10-year terms offered to this demographic, according to the study distributed by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

So, they definitely were seeming to write fewer policies to older people.

Xan wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 9:27 am Doesn't that just mean that people who have their lives insured aren't statistically more likely to die? Pretty much that excludes anybody who's retired, doesn't it?

Not really. There are new life insurance products that include the ability to draw from the policy while the insured is still alive, to cover medical expenses. It's an alternative to disability insurance. When I looked into it for my mom, I thought it was substantially better and I (along with her Morgan Stanley financial advisor) urged her to get it. There was a cutoff of age 80 (or 82, I can't quite remember) and she needed to pass a physical. In fact I'm thinking about signing up for this myself.

I'm not sure what the bar was for passing the physical, because she wasn't much of a test - at the time she was healthy except for mild hypertension. Assuming they would only block people with obvious late stage stuff like cancer or advanced heart disease, there could be a lot of sick elderly people with life insurance. If rates are holding constant, that is indeed a pretty good signal that despite the highly publicized COVID death counts, there isn't a lot in the way of years of life lost. (A statistic I would very much like to see, especially because no one seems interested in looking into it.)

Also, compared to most terminal conditions, COVID is fast and dirt cheap. It's mainly about supportive care, and it's all over in a matter of a few weeks. Compare that to cancer (IV infusions of shockingly expensive chemotherapy drugs, radiation, surgeries, on and on x years) or heart disease (very expensive interventional procedures and surgeries, expensive medications, also dragging on for years). This is surely reducing long-term costs for insurance companies and most especially for Medicare and Medicaid, though I have no idea how these would figure into life insurance premiums.

Megan McArdle commonly writes things that make sense.

If you watch the YouTube video of the now-infamous November meeting of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, you’ll hear Chairman José Romero thank everyone for a “robust discussion.” Shortly thereafter, the committee unanimously agreed that essential workers should get vaccinated ahead of the elderly, even though they’d been told this would mean up to 6 percent more deaths. This decision was supported in part by noting that America’s essential workers are more racially diverse than its senior citizens.

On Dec. 20, after the public belatedly noticed this attempted geronticide, the advisory panel walked it back, so I need not point out the many flaws of this reasoning. Instead, let’s dwell on the equally flawed process by which the committee reached its decision, because that itself is a symptom of much deeper problems that have plagued us since the beginning of the pandemic. link.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:55 pm Megan McArdle commonly writes things that make sense.

If you watch the YouTube video of the now-infamous November meeting of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, you’ll hear Chairman José Romero thank everyone for a “robust discussion.” Shortly thereafter, the committee unanimously agreed that essential workers should get vaccinated ahead of the elderly, even though they’d been told this would mean up to 6 percent more deaths. This decision was supported in part by noting that America’s essential workers are more racially diverse than its senior citizens.

On Dec. 20, after the public belatedly noticed this attempted geronticide, the advisory panel walked it back, so I need not point out the many flaws of this reasoning. Instead, let’s dwell on the equally flawed process by which the committee reached its decision, because that itself is a symptom of much deeper problems that have plagued us since the beginning of the pandemic. link.

Always distressing to see a professional writer use cliches rather than using more descriptive words such as:
"retreated from" or "distanced themselves from" or "reversed themselves". I need more description to understand how and in what way they actually "walked it back".

Vinny

I think this warrants a thread, Vinny. I’ll start one.

↳ viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11723

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:44 am I think this warrants a thread, Vinny. I’ll start one.

↳ viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11723

Definitely!

I have in my my mind to start a topic called "Words", in which this discussion would definitely belong.

This forum has a lot of excellent writers who use their words well.

Vinny

https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?

doodle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?

Are you referring to this? 41 year old congressman elect?

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 1.amp.html

Definitely scary. Makes you wonder what you can really do.

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am

doodle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?

Are you referring to this? 41 year old congressman elect?

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 1.amp.html

Definitely scary. Makes you wonder what you can really do.

Didn't he die of a heart attack? He looks somewhat overweight, don't know if he had heart problems or if they run in his family, but influenza increases the chance of a heart attack by something like 600% in the week after diagnosis.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:07 am

SomeDude wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:41 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:57 am

doodle wrote: ↑Tue Dec 29, 2020 11:56 pm https://readsector.com/republican-loui ... th-covid

Now dead. Newlyborn and young child. Received same treatment as Trump and Giuliani yet dies. Why is a 41 year old dying from respiratory illness after a few weeks?

Are you referring to this? 41 year old congressman elect?

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/a ... 1.amp.html

Definitely scary. Makes you wonder what you can really do.

Didn't he die of a heart attack? He looks somewhat overweight, don't know if he had heart problems or if they run in his family, but influenza increases the chance of a heart attack by something like 600% in the week after diagnosis.

Not at all overweight. But there may have been some other comorbidity. Or not.

Keep in mind tho, that seemingly healthy people also die of influenza every year. You just don't hear about it bc Covid

True, and a lot of this could be just hyper focusing on covid and these weird outlier events. The data does seem to suggest that it's about 10 times deadlier than average flu. 1% vs .1% death rate. It's just that it seems so rare that a healthy 40 year old...healthy enough to father children, run for political office, maintain normal weight etc. Dies from a respiratory illness after ten days of receiving same treatment as Giuliani and Trump and Christie presumably....all of whom are in much worse health it would appear on first glance. Someday I'm sure we will have a better understanding of this weird virus.

The comorbidity aspect is such a slippery slope/point of contention and concern, in my opinion.

He/she was fat, continues down the slope of they ate terribly, didn't exercise, compromised their body, and it's THEIR fault. If that goes through my head at times when watching the news of a young (obese) person dying of Covid, I'm sure many others have done the same.

And that's terrible.

You can make a case that an 85 year old who gets it and gets their life cut short by a few days/months that it's not a major deal.

But that gets much harder when it is young people.

I'm not saying this to try to justify lockdowns; just stating what I think a lot of people may be thinking and it's terrible these thoughts go through my head.

If this virus mainly targeted kids, I'm sure we'd all have a different perspective.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:58 am

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:38 am The comorbidity aspect is such a slippery slope/point of contention and concern, in my opinion.

He/she was fat, continues down the slope of they ate terribly, didn't exercise, compromised their body, and it's THEIR fault. If that goes through my head at times when watching the news of a young (obese) person dying of Covid, I'm sure many others have done the same.

And that's terrible.

You can make a case that an 85 year old who gets it and gets their life cut short by a few days/months that it's not a major deal.

But that gets much harder when it is young people.

I'm not saying this to try to justify lockdowns; just stating what I think a lot of people may be thinking and it's terrible these thoughts go through my head.

If this virus mainly targeted kids, I'm sure we'd all have a different perspective.

If they get diabetes from being fat and not exercising, is that THEIR fault? If they then need their foot amputated or develop some other diabetes related issue that cuts their life short or makes it less pleasant, is that THEIR fault? If a chain smoker gets lung cancer, is that THEIR fault? If not, whose fault is it? I'm not a sure I understand your logic.

My logic kind of is:

--Person in 20s/30s/40s is obese/overweight
--Yeah, it is messing with their body, and yeah, maybe a majority aren't doing anything about it
--But in general, it will take decades of damage to to get to the stuff you describe and/or death
--And instead of decades, Covid turns that into days/weeks

My thinking, as usual, is certainly not black and white.

Darn.

https://deadline.com/2020/12/dawn-wells ... 234662935/