Gyroscopic Investing

With His Star Dimmed, California’s Newsom Could Face Recall

I'll be thrilled if Newsom is recalled next year. But sadly, I suspect Californians will just replace him with another leftist governor who will be just as enthusiastic about lockdowns and other illegal diktats next time a scary new virus starts spreading.

pug,

I am on the same page as you, mostly.

But I'm long past thinking anything can be done, other than a post mortem. Get the vaccine out as fast as possible. Get people to take it, get back to normal, and then hopefully a reasonable discussion of how we try to not let this happen again.

I want my kids back at real school. I want marching band. I want to eat out. I want to go on vacation.

Harping on what could have been done differently or better is depressing and pointless right now.

N post Thanksgiving surge, what do you think is going to be said? People listened. More people wore masks. Etc.

You are in a situation where the reasons are known before the results: If there was a surge, it's because people did a poor job of distancing and masking. If there wasn't, it's because they did.

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Dec 15, 2020 12:11 pm In a shocking development, the AMA has rescinded its ban on using hydroxychloroquine for Covid.
Nothing to see here, move along.

Lest you think it's not about politics....just had a dept meeting on COVID. My hospital currently does not permit use of hydroxychloroquine.

Of course, it's probably not appropriate for hospitalized patients anyway. Looks like if it does work, it has to be used early on.

Also another little info tidbit: per my ER doc sister, she estimates that half the positive COVID tests she sees are asymptomatic. And that's people coming into an emergency room. My guess, based on the people I stood in line with for 3 hours to get a test after my workplace exposure, is that in places like urgent care clinics the % is much higher.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Dec 15, 2020 4:16 pm
I agree. What I want isn't a dissection of failed policy, it's a move to eliminate it and return to normal, which the blue governors seem unable to do. Also +1 and LOL on the reason before the results comment.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Dec 15, 2020 3:26 pm pug,

I am on the same page as you, mostly.

But I'm long past thinking anything can be done, other than a post mortem. Get the vaccine out as fast as possible. Get people to take it, get back to normal, and then hopefully a reasonable discussion of how we try to not let this happen again.

I want my kids back at real school. I want marching band. I want to eat out. I want to go on vacation.

Harping on what could have been done differently or better is depressing and pointless right now.

N post Thanksgiving surge, what do you think is going to be said? People listened. More people wore masks. Etc.

You are in a situation where the reasons are known before the results: If there was a surge, it's because people did a poor job of distancing and masking. If there wasn't, it's because they did.

My biggest source of apprehension is that this will be a recurring theme, now that we have a precedent that government officials can do all the things they've been doing for the past year. Basically, that this year is repeatable.

Death "with" vs "of"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw9Ci2PZKZg

Run enough cycles you can find anything
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/20 ... dges/56962
https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/commen ... pcr_tests/

"A test that registers a positive result after 12 rounds, for a CT value of 12, starts out with more than 10 million times as much viral genetic material as a sample with a CT value of 35.
But the same sample can give different CT values on different testing machines, and different swabs from the same person can give different results." https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09 ... st-results

Ironic, PCR inventor had a problem with Fauci and died of pneumonia (cold/flu?) last year
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aISPlTLbJo

But Mullis is an HIV denier...so like everything else, I guess no one person gets it all right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis

boglerdude wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:16 am ...
Ironic, PCR inventor had a problem with Fauci and died of pneumonia (cold/flu?) last year
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aISPlTLbJo

...

Did he play the first Darrin Stevens or the second?

I'm going to watch for stories like this before I take the vaccine myself, if at all. Apparently the woman in Alaska started having an " anaphylactic reaction" within 10 minutes after receiving the shot. When she went to the emergency room they gave her a shot of epinephrine and it resolved within minutes although she's still in the hospital for safety precautions.....

https://www.foxnews.com/health/alaska-h ... 19-vaccine

I'm guessing this isn't an unheard of, although rare, reaction to a vaccination but the news media will make sure we hear of every one of them as a PSA. So I'll be watching to see how many more there are before making my own decision.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:04 pm Lest you think it's not about politics....just had a dept meeting on COVID. My hospital currently does not permit use of hydroxychloroquine.

What reason do they give for this?

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Dec 15, 2020 7:50 pm My biggest source of apprehension is that this will be a recurring theme, now that we have a precedent that government officials can do all the things they've been doing for the past year. Basically, that this year is repeatable.

I'm worried about that too. If we get lockdowns for virus A, why not virus B? As in, lockdowns will occur every flu season. And god knows when it will be ok not to wear masks every time you step outside your front door.

I saw an interview with Bill Gates on youtube where he said essentially this. As in, regular recurring lockdowns and a permanent mask mandate.

I actually would not mind if large gatherings (e.g. professional conferences with thousands of attendees) during flu season (roughly November through end of February) became generally known as a Bad Thing. But, I would not want to see it become a federal law. Professionals will vote with their feet and the organizations will respond accordingly.

But then, I think that mask wearing, restaurant dining, and in-store shopping should not be a matter of law either. Everyone should be free to choose - and that includes store owners who may elect to mandate that all customers wear masks while on their property. Customers may prefer shopping at such stores, or maybe they'll go for the ones without those mandates. Businesses should permit remote work for anyone whose job can be done from home - and if they don't, they'll lose out when valuable employees decide to go elsewhere. See how easy that is? People will self-select their preferred environment based on whether they're COVID-terrified or not.

The at-risk can protect themselves w/vaccine. Its on grandma now, not the maskless grandma-murderers in FL/TX.

Pfizer's been working on the vaccine for a couple years. we didnt hear about it till right after the election. mRNA flu vacc is in the pipeline.

boglerdude wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:34 am Pfizer's been working on the vaccine for a couple years. we didnt hear about it till right after the election.

Another conspiracy thread?

Hospitals here in Vancouver are once again at capacity regarding COVID patients. It's like April all over again.

Vaccines are slowly rolling out and will go to frontline healthcare workers first, understandably. People like myself will likely not get it till something like September of 2021.

We've had a few healthcare professionals come by our company tangentially. They're all saying the same thing: one more lockdown may be in store for us.

Interesting, and interested in those who believed Sweden did the right thing? I am not implying I think one way is right or not, only that Sweden was brought up a lot as the way we should have done things.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021

----------------

King Carl XVI Gustaf made the remarks as part of an annual TV review of the year with the royal family.

Sweden, which has never imposed a full lockdown, has seen nearly 350,000 cases and more than 7,800 deaths - a lot more than its Scandinavian neighbours.

Deaths per 1 million, last column:

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:53 am Interesting, and interested in those who believed Sweden did the right thing? I am not implying I think one way is right or not, only that Sweden was brought up a lot as the way we should have done things.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021

----------------

King Carl XVI Gustaf made the remarks as part of an annual TV review of the year with the royal family.

Sweden, which has never imposed a full lockdown, has seen nearly 350,000 cases and more than 7,800 deaths - a lot more than its Scandinavian neighbours.

Deaths per 1 million, last column:

We've been over this. Sweden took in a large Somali refugee population that its Scandinavian neighbors didn't. The cases are concentrated in that population. Also, it's not exactly valid to cherrypick the countries to compare to. For example, by picking comparison points you can make the US look either really good or really bad.

I suspect cases are most strongly related to ethnicity. In NYC it's the Latin & black populations who are hit hardest - and the problem is likely genetic. South American countries have the worst mortality from COVID, and much of NYC is effectively South American.

87% of Sweden lives in Urban areas, on 1.5% of the total land.

That's a higher percentage in cities than in the US and Norway at a little over 80%, and quite a bit higher than Finland at 70%.

Sweden didn't destroy their economy and lives over fear of getting the flu.

Looks like they got something right.

WiseOne, I don't mean to harp, and I do understand how you can take it the wrong way, especially coming from me.

1) I am only trying to compare the US and Sweden. We have a higher rate per 1MM, yet supposedly stronger lockdowns/mask wearing. That actually supports your position. Why are you saying I am cherry picking? I only want to compare the US vs. Sweden. Sweden's rate is 17.5% lower than the US. And they didn't do strict lockdowns. In effect, that kind of says maybe we'd even have been better off not doing lockdowns. But the point I wanted to make is Sweden, if they had done mandatory masking and lockdowns, would that number be 776 or a lot lower? Or higher? We'll never know. All we know now is the number has gotten high enough that they are doing restrictions and it's not magically glorious in Sweden.

2) On the Somali population, what am I supposed to do, look at ethnicities in a country to determine if there's a genetic element? Regardless white or black, the population lives in Sweden. Can we not just look at the raw numbers without getting subjective trying to support a specific position?

3) Should I even bother asking your opinion of the rate in Somalia (12/1MM)? Or are there enough possible extenuating circumstances, hotter, numbers BS, etc, that you'd immediately discount it?

Your patience with me seems pretty short, even when I am literally on the same side. Not getting it.

Regarding Somalia, its demographics skew very young just like most other countries in Africa:

Most local residents are young, with a median age of 17.7 years; about 44% of the population is between the ages of 0–14 years, 52.4% is between the ages of 15–64 years, and only 2.3% is 65 years of age or older.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somalia#Demographics

The vast, vast majority of Covid deaths occur in people older than 65, so that's the biggest reason for their low Covid death rate. Another big reason is that Somalia almost certainly tests people for Covid far less than industrialized nations like the US. If you don't test for it, you tend not to find it and report it.

Czechia? That’s the first time I’ve ever seen that. I’ve only heard Czech Lands and Czech Republic. Ok carry on.

At least as of 4 years ago, similar demographics exist in Sweden for Somalis -- very young generally, 68% 34 YO or younger!

According to Statistics Sweden, as of 2016, there are a total 63,853 Somalia-born immigrants living in Sweden.[5] Of those, 41,335 are citizens of Somalia (20,554 men, 20,781 women).[9] Most of the residents are young, primarily belonging to the 15–24 years (8,679 men, 7,728 women), 25–34 years (7,043 men, 7,958 women), and 5–14 years (5,882 men, 5,629 women) age groups.

Will we ever, post apocalypse, get the truth about the whys and wherefores of this virus? Given current media subservience to government, I have a lot of doubt. I think any facts that reflect poorly on those in charge will be suppressed. I hate that I’ve come to this point, btw.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:54 pm At least as of 4 years ago, similar demographics exist in Sweden for Somalis -- very young generally, 68% 34 YO or younger!

According to Statistics Sweden, as of 2016, there are a total 63,853 Somalia-born immigrants living in Sweden.[5] Of those, 41,335 are citizens of Somalia (20,554 men, 20,781 women).[9] Most of the residents are young, primarily belonging to the 15–24 years (8,679 men, 7,728 women), 25–34 years (7,043 men, 7,958 women), and 5–14 years (5,882 men, 5,629 women) age groups.

Not a bad rebuttal to the age argument. Definitely worth considering.

Now, how about the testing argument? Do we know how much Covid testing is performed per million people in Somalia compared to Sweden?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:33 pm2) On the Somali population, what am I supposed to do, look at ethnicities in a country to determine if there's a genetic element? Regardless white or black, the population lives in Sweden. Can we not just look at the raw numbers without getting subjective trying to support a specific position?

When trying to prove an assertion, it's vital to remove any confounding factors. For example, Corto, your (at least tentative) assertion is that lockdowns are the difference in results between Sweden and other countries.

Other potential factors besides lockdowns have to be considered and accounted for before you can conclude that lockdowns are the reason for the difference.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:18 pm

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:54 pm At least as of 4 years ago, similar demographics exist in Sweden for Somalis -- very young generally, 68% 34 YO or younger!

According to Statistics Sweden, as of 2016, there are a total 63,853 Somalia-born immigrants living in Sweden.[5] Of those, 41,335 are citizens of Somalia (20,554 men, 20,781 women).[9] Most of the residents are young, primarily belonging to the 15–24 years (8,679 men, 7,728 women), 25–34 years (7,043 men, 7,958 women), and 5–14 years (5,882 men, 5,629 women) age groups.

Not a bad rebuttal to the age argument. Definitely worth considering.

Now, how about the testing argument? Do we know how much Covid testing is performed per million people in Somalia compared to Sweden?

They have a positive case rate of 435/1MM. US is 52,000+/1MM So obviously they are either not testing as much or they are actually genetically superior related to Covid?

Not testing as much sounds about right to me, Corto.