Gyroscopic Investing

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:25 pm Bitcoin won’t do you much good when you have no electricity like most of the Ukraine

Actually, Bitcoin is quite useful to a Ukrainain. Russia can invade, kick you out of your house, take your property (including your gold), but your Bitcoin rests securely on the blockchain, waiting for saner times to prevail.

You can even take it to your grave with you, as Satoshi probably did/will.

Pointedstick wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:02 pm Has anyone here actually purchased anything with gold directly, or accepted payment in gold for delivery of goods or services? I can say that I have not.

I have on the other hand participated in money-like transactions using cryptocurrencies before, in which they were exchanged for goods or services. Cryprocurrencies may generally be bad and unstable forms of money, but they do seem to be some form of money. Gold I'm not sure about though. It feels more like a commodity one exchanges for money than money itself.

One interesting difference between payment in gold/cash and payment in Bitcoin, is that with Bitcoin you also get a receipt. When you are transacting w/ someone you don't know, possibly w/ an escrow service or some other arbiter involved, you want some proof that you paid the other party. Money orders and Bitcoin provide this.

I recently needed to pay for something like this, and I had a choice of paying by money order or Bitcoin. I generally try not to spend my Bitcoin (Gresham's Law), but I was feeling lazy and didn't want to go to the post office, so I paid in Bitcoin.

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:04 am Just pointing out that an 18% drop in a year is not unprecedented for the PP. I don't believe the yearly data show it as it's only happened intra-year so far. Fingers crossed that happens this time too.

Yes & besides,WTH else CAN one do that is SAFER with their money. We all pretty much know what can happen to ANY of the four asset classes in the PP. It does as good as anything else, or BETTER to protect "the money that you can't afford to lose" as anything else out there that a regular Joe or Jane can achieve with their LONG TERM Core Portfolio.

I bought 30 years at 4 and then again at 3.87. I am using a new rule for myself. It’s called go halfsies. If I’m scared to buy or sell I do around half. That gets me moving.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:39 pm I bought 30 years at 4 and then again at 3.87. I am using a new rule for myself. It’s called go halfsies. If I’m scared to buy or sell I do around half. That gets me moving.

The mechanical part is easy (15/35 Bands): the emotional part can be more...ahem, problematic.

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:48 pm

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:39 pm I bought 30 years at 4 and then again at 3.87. I am using a new rule for myself. It’s called go halfsies. If I’m scared to buy or sell I do around half. That gets me moving.

The mechanical part is easy (15/35 Bands): the emotional part can be more...ahem, problematic.

Understatement of the year

As much as I admire the HBPP, I sold out of Treasuries back in 2017. Yes, I did miss a big increase in Treasury value, but I also avoided the dramatic decline due to the Fed raising interest rates.

I have made several posts herein about a modified HBPP where I make quarterly adjustments based upon the prior 63-day returns of the portfolio components. The result is a subtle shift to the component with the highest 63-day return and away from the component with the lowest return.

Doing this achieves a higher return than the traditional HBPP and a smaller loss.

It's takes no more than 30 minutes of effort a quarter and the discipline to follow through, but purists cannot dispute the results.

johnnywitt wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 3:12 pm

Xan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:04 am Just pointing out that an 18% drop in a year is not unprecedented for the PP. I don't believe the yearly data show it as it's only happened intra-year so far. Fingers crossed that happens this time too.

Yes & besides,WTH else CAN one do that is SAFER with their money. We all pretty much know what can happen to ANY of the four asset classes in the PP. It does as good as anything else, or BETTER to protect "the money that you can't afford to lose" as anything else out there that a regular Joe or Jane can achieve with their LONG TERM Core Portfolio.

PV (click the drawdown tab)

Short term volatility, a year or two, is irrelevant unless you're lumping all-in/out at single time points. The greater concern should be persistent negative side volatility (declining and staying down mid/longer term).

Mostly when you're averaging out, simply taking withdrawals from whichever is most above its target weighting is sufficient rebalancing in itself. Maybe supplemented with additional periodic movement between assets if one has become uncomfortably above/below target weights.

EdwardjK wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:44 pm …, I sold out of Treasuries back in 2017.
…
I have made several posts herein about a modified HBPP where I make quarterly adjustments based upon the prior 63-day returns of the portfolio components.
…

How did you settle on 63 days, Edward?

dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 6:35 pm

EdwardjK wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 12:44 pm …, I sold out of Treasuries back in 2017.
…
I have made several posts herein about a modified HBPP where I make quarterly adjustments based upon the prior 63-day returns of the portfolio components.
…

How did you settle on 63 days, Edward?

That's the quarter amount of trading days i.e. 3 x ~21 days. It's time frame quite common to momentum strategies. However, as my favorite author on the topic (Andreas Clenow) use to say, the best strategies are somehow parameter stable i.e. they are invariant on the input paremeters - they'd work with 63, 85, 120 days ...

ah, thanks!

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:39 pm I bought 30 years at 4 and then again at 3.87. I am using a new rule for myself. It’s called go halfsies. If I’m scared to buy or sell I do around half. That gets me moving.

Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon, I think this is a great addendum to his Rule #17 "When in Doubt, Err on the Side of Safety".

I read all of the DCA versus Lump Sum debates when I started moving into the market last year. I've come out of the process more than certain that DCA is the perfect approach for a cautious personality like mine. Going in bit by bit gets you moving, but buys you time to develop a feel for the market while most of the money is still in the most stable investment of cash. His elaboration on page 141:

So for [the 1970's] it cost the individual 2.6% of the purchasing power of his capital each year (23% for the decade) to avoid alien investment strategies and continue to do what was familiar [holding cash in the bank].
That wasn't a good bargain. But for someone with limited knowledge and a strong desire to keep most of what he had, it wasn't ruinous—not as bad as the losses that could have come from playing with investments he didn't understand

I highly recommend Jeff Snider’s Eurodollar University podcast where he deep dives into yield curves and the financial and global monetary system.

joypog wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:07 pm
Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon,

the whole thing?

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:36 am

joypog wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:07 pm
Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon,

the whole thing?

Hahaha! It's a short book...but not that short! It was a lot of skimming while slowing down at the juicy parts!

joypog wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:06 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:36 am

joypog wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 6:07 pm
Having re-read Fail Safe Investing this afternoon,

the whole thing?

Hahaha! It's a short book...but not that short! It was a lot of skimming while slowing down at the juicy parts!

I'm thinking of two of his books. The one which was all about the Permanent Portfolio was a relatively short book. The one I am thinking about that was Fail Safe Investing was a much, much, much longer book.

No, Joypog’s right. Fail Safe is briefer. Best Laid Plans is a veritable tome.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:14 pm
No, Joypog’s right. Fail Safe is briefer. Best Laid Plans is a veritable tome.

Now that you name the other book my memory of each comes back.