Putin Invades Ukraine II

[Kbg]

I'm beginning more and more to see how the US could get sucked into it.

However, I'm beginning to more and more come around to the view that maybe that isn't such a bad thing strategically. Really what I'm coming around to is that Russian leadership as it currently exists needs to go...yeah I know, scary as crap to think about.

[ppnewbie]

I'm beginning more and more to see how the US could get sucked into it.

However, I'm beginning to more and more come around to the view that maybe that isn't such a bad thing strategically. Really what I'm coming around to is that Russian leadership as it currently exists needs to go...yeah I know, scary as crap to think about.

This may be true but are any of us willing to put actual skin in the game - like our lives or our families lives. I think this is what is going to be required.

[dualstow]

I think that America can be foolish if it has no costs. But I am fearing for millions of people - famine - collapses of society with scarce energy. I think we are getting much closer to sacrificing our own loved ones or ourselves for Ukraine than we think.

We made a mess. We installed a clown. This time a nuclear bomb can hit any NATO country or the US. Biden keeps upping the Ante. It feels like he is unaware that this could be world war three over….Ukraine. I hear Russian state media is even calling it World War Three.

I thought Russian media were avoiding the word “war” altogether and instead calling it a “special operation.”

Ah, ok, I found something going all the way back to Nov 2021.

“World War III is knocking at our door,” warned one top propagandist.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/will-puti ... o-the-idea

and more recently:

Code: Select all

 https://twitter.com/dpatrikarakos/status/1515316044029693959?s=20&t=CaVf5o6VZecRZWziYs6zqg

This Solovyov guy seems like he’s all over the place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_ ... _criticism

[ppnewbie]

It’s interesting I read that article as one propogandist calling another media outlet a propogandist.

[I Shrugged]

How dare you sink our warship? Just for that, we’re going to bomb your capital.

Crazy stuff.

[Dieter]

How dare you sink our warship? Just for that, we’re going to bomb your capital.

Crazy stuff.

Isn't is more of "How dare Moscovy warship randomly catch fire and sink during special military operation. We therefor randomly like Ukraine even less. More missiles for Kiev unless they stop spontaneous combustion of Russian warships. "

[I Shrugged]

How dare you sink our warship? Just for that, we’re going to bomb your capital.

Crazy stuff.

Isn't is more of "How dare Moscovy warship randomly catch fire and sink during special military operation. We therefor randomly like Ukraine even less. More missiles for Kiev unless they stop spontaneous combustion of Russian warships. "

Yes, of course!

[I Shrugged]

Won’t Russia have to sell any outcome, negotiated or otherwise, of this war to the West, in order to be allowed back into regular relationships?

If so, can you see a path from here to there? Especially if they intensify their war campaign?

[Xan]

Won’t Russia have to sell any outcome, negotiated or otherwise, of this war to the West, in order to be allowed back into regular relationships?

If so, can you see a path from here to there? Especially if they intensify their war campaign?

One such path would be Putin's ouster (by whatever means), and a new guy unaffiliated with Putin who disclaims Russia's recent actions.

[Dieter]

Won’t Russia have to sell any outcome, negotiated or otherwise, of this war to the West, in order to be allowed back into regular relationships?

If so, can you see a path from here to there? Especially if they intensify their war campaign?

It’s sure going to be interesting, that’s for sure, given all the natural resources Russia has

How many countries other than India and China will continue to get resources from Russia?

Can the Russians build efficient supply routes to new markets before the West stops using their products?

Heck, can they keep their current production up without western companies?

Will likely continue at least partial for a while

(Sorry, I know not new)

[I Shrugged]

Won’t Russia have to sell any outcome, negotiated or otherwise, of this war to the West, in order to be allowed back into regular relationships?

If so, can you see a path from here to there? Especially if they intensify their war campaign?

One such path would be Putin's ouster (by whatever means), and a new guy unaffiliated with Putin who disclaims Russia's recent actions.

That seems like the most likely outcome.
The other strong possibility is Cold War II. I would wonder if Russians will put up with that for very long. Which would circle back to the first possibility.

[ppnewbie]

I’ll throw out some ideas here. Societal complexity is a result of excess energy. Without it we will be burning coal and riding horses again.

Europe is utterly dependent on Russia for energy.

I believe we hit something call peak oil a while ago. IE we used to input one barrel of oil energy to get 100. Now we input 1 barrel to get 3. Numbers may be off.

Without certain natural resources we don’t have fertilizer because I believe a lot of farming is “input” heavy. IE things are grown in dirt with heavy amounts inputs, not soil.

We may not be in a position of strength.

[Kbg]

Without certain natural resources we don’t have fertilizer because I believe a lot of farming is “input” heavy. IE things are grown in dirt with heavy amounts inputs, not soil.

We may not be in a position of strength.

The huge leaps in agricultural productivity gains have little to do with petroleum and are largely a result of the biological sciences.

Militarily Putin has clearly demonstrated he doesn't have much of a military. At a strategic level all he has left ARE nuclear weapons.

I like to crystalize things down to their essentials and here's the one in play now with regard to nuclear weapons: Do we set a precedent of "I wave my nuclear weapon wand and everyone freezes while I do what I want?" The answer is no. The challenge is how to put that into effect.

Humans are way more clever than we give them credit for. If petroleum went away, we would figure it out. Nuclear reactors alone (a decades old technology) could take over a very large portion of petroleum produced energy. Petroleum's actual economic benefit at this point in time is lower cost and it's portable. Not saying the transition wouldn't be painful and expensive, but I've zero doubt we would adjust.

Simply put, if you had a $1,000,000 on the line for a bet of which country will be better off in 10 years, would you seriously pick Russia? China, maybe. Russia? You gotta be kidding me.

[ppnewbie]

Financial times headline - Britain - Horrific Surge in Energy Bills.

[dualstow]

Finland and and Sweden now want NATO membership.
Nice job, Vlad

[Vil]

Yes, they were discussing this since some time, but already Medvedev (I think) threatened that if it happens, Baltics will become gunpowder cellar with more than enough loaded nuclear bunkers ready to target the new regions. Though its questionable whether there aren't such bunkers existing already

[ppnewbie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AQc_HEOpFc

At time marker 7:09 Chomski sums up my opinion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AQc_HEOpFc

[dualstow]

[ppnewbie]

From the war humor department:

Putin has warned Finland & Sweden that if they join NATO he will be forced to sink his warships near their coast as well.

[Dieter]

War humor (from a YT video, paraphrasing)

Ukraine has more tanks now than at the beginning of the year thanks to recent tank migrations

[murphy_p_t]

Just looking on this page, the chest thumping americanism, full of hubris, is sickening to me.

[ppnewbie]

Just looking on this page, the chest thumping americanism, full of hubris, is sickening to me.

Its funny, I think we are very screwed. We are being arrogant to...RUSSIA. Holy S#*$! What happened when we messed with an impoverished country in the middle east, Afganisthan? Russia is 100x more powerful. It's like we are in a hubris death spiral. But anyway. Its what happens after years of supremacy. There is probably no way around it.

[murphy_p_t]

This drunk antagonizing Mike Tyson also thought he was clever.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V3C4pWwDqps

[murphy_p_t]

Just looking on this page, the chest thumping americanism, full of hubris, is sickening to me.

Its funny, I think we are very screwed. We are being arrogant to...RUSSIA. Holy S#*$! What happened when we messed with an impoverished country in the middle east, Afganisthan? Russia is 100x more powerful. It's like we are in a hubris death spiral. But anyway. Its what happens after years of supremacy. There is probably no way around it.

"Whom the gods would destroy they first make mad"

[dualstow]

Just looking on this page, the chest thumping americanism, full of hubris, is sickening to me.

Chest thumping Americanism, really? I know you said this page and not this thread, but if you skim the thread, here’s what you will find:
- Putin is evil
- The Russians aren’t fighting very well // ok, these two are largely from me, but there’s no hubris
- fog of war. Propaganda on all sides
- NATO got too big. It’s NATO’s fault that Putin is doing what he’s doing. NATO spooked him.
- America did this, American did that. Civil War. Neocons. Grenada, for shit’s sake. My Lai massacre (I moved that to another thread).
- The Russian people are going to suffer (general populace) // me again
- America bad

I don’t doubt that there is chest-thumping on the rest of the internet. However, this is the bizarro version, this forum. Because we don’t have a beautiful anarchy situation, America is evil because MK Ultra happened and the CIA has toppled governments. We’re worse than what China is doing to the Uygurs and we should appease Putin right now and give him what he wants. Give him a chunk of Ukraine and mints on his pillows and all will be well.