Gyroscopic Investing

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:30 am I think part of the issue is hospital capacity. This is a legitimate concern if many recoveries are due to improving treatment options. Would Trump or Christie have lived if they hadn't had very prompt hospital treatment? That's a good question. If the case numbers climb to a point that prevents treatment then our death numbers could increase significantly. For that reason I think it's important to monitor case numbers and hospital capacity along with excess death stats. That will give us a pretty clear picture of how to manage this and what our outcomes look like.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.

Well, that's not going to happen.

I am curious what people will make of Europe getting hit with a big second wave. I assume masking in general is probably much more adhered to in most countries than the US? If so, what's the reason?

Double edged sword I guess -- maybe makes it obvious masks aren't foolproof, but we have to lock down even harder? Strange situation.

Kbg wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:00 am Riddle me this Batmen & Batgirls...I happen to be on an extended business trip in Korea at this very moment. Got to spend two fun filled weeks in my hotel room and had to report my health stats once a day for 14 days before I could leave and begin my business. EVERYONE here is wearing masks and there are very few restrictions. The population here is about 1/5th the US (and way more dense) so an equivalent daily case rate would be about 12.5K...and last week when I checked there were 60 new cases with a good portion being foreigners.

Personally, I think as US citizens we just need to look at ourselves in the mirror and say we completely suck at being civic minded. And I think we also have to admit that continuous tearing down of government agencies has turned former world centers of excellence (FAA and CDC) into compromised entities that will no longer set the agenda and rules for much of the rest of the world.

This would be known as a loss of soft power. Global politics abhors a power vacuum. So long as we all are cool with China and/or the EU becoming the rule setters that US businesses will have to abide by when competing globally, rock on folks. (Probably ain't going to end how you think it is though.)

WiseOne wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 8:34 am

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:26 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 pm
Namely, too few cases means it's more likely that Trump will win.

Well, that's not going to happen.

I am curious what people will make of Europe getting hit with a big second wave. I assume masking in general is probably much more adhered to in most countries than the US? If so, what's the reason?

Double edged sword I guess -- maybe makes it obvious masks aren't foolproof, but we have to lock down even harder? Strange situation.

Well, the science (see WHO report from 2019 that I previously posted) has already said that masks worn by the general public make somewhere between little to no difference in limiting viral spread. At best it's a small effect. And we see no evidence that lockdowns accomplish much either.

Regarding the difference between "positive tests", "cases" and clinically significant outcomes, here's a snapshot of the graph of deaths over time in Europe going back several years. Notice the transient large bump early this year, which no one is contesting. Since then though....I say again, if all PCR testing and media panic stopped immediately, would you even know that anything out of the ordinary is going on? Saying that "hospitalizations are increasing" is just dumb, because they ALWAYS increase at this time. It's flu season. Do you see the annual cycles? What this is saying is that all the testing is just a giant waste of resources right now.

BTW I acknowledge that the deaths are up around the line that marks the difference between normal and excess deaths. That could easily be explained by the negative health effects of the lockdowns plus the relatively small number of ongoing severe COVID cases. However, it's not consistent enough to be calling this an "epidemic" still less a "pandemic".

Again though I don't attribute this to any nefarious scheme. As Robert Heinlein once said (paraphrasing P.T. Barnum), Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

Here's the source of the chart:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

MangoMan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:43 pm Emails, Secret Report Show Politics Of Science Guiding Pritzker

Gov. J.B. Pritzker keeps telling Illinoisans that his coronavirus mitigation efforts are guided by science.

"Science twice removed" might be closer to the truth, public records show.

After combing though hundreds of pages of emails and a confidential coronavirus report obtained through the spoils of another man's Freedom of Information request, the big takeaway is that scientists advising Pritzker say coronavirus test positivity rates that guide his pandemic response are unreliable.

That's not an opinion.

And the lockdowns continue.

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:11 am Another video from Ivor Cummins debunking COVID mythology that is VERY WELL worth your time to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRbtGd70-Ow

Highly recommended. It summarizes beautifully the arguments that the pandemic is long over, lockdowns and masks are pointless etc. And it specifically answers the types of comments I see posted here in the wake of my posts arguing from the logic/science perspective.

At the end there's a bit of a libertarian take on the general trend toward oppression and top-down government controls. I share those concerns. Plus I'm concerned that trend will accelerate if Biden is elected, and more so if the Senate changes to Democratic control.

I like this guy a lot....all facts, no innuendo, and all logically and calmly presented. A refreshing departure from the hysterical headlines we see every day from the media.

doodle wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:44 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:11 am Another video from Ivor Cummins debunking COVID mythology that is VERY WELL worth your time to watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRbtGd70-Ow

Highly recommended. It summarizes beautifully the arguments that the pandemic is long over, lockdowns and masks are pointless etc. And it specifically answers the types of comments I see posted here in the wake of my posts arguing from the logic/science perspective.

At the end there's a bit of a libertarian take on the general trend toward oppression and top-down government controls. I share those concerns. Plus I'm concerned that trend will accelerate if Biden is elected, and more so if the Senate changes to Democratic control.

I like this guy a lot....all facts, no innuendo, and all logically and calmly presented. A refreshing departure from the hysterical headlines we see every day from the media.

All facts? Evidently not...and some cherry picking to boot. We love people who validate our own beliefs and opinions. It's comforting to have someone tell us why we were right all along.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post ... iewpoints

Maddy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:03 pm Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.

Maddy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:03 pm Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:00 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:03 pm Doesn't seem all that wise to court a debate with somebody whose game is clinical research and whose entire professional life has been devoted to separating good data from bad.

TDS is a terrible affliction.
We have several candidates for "TDS poster child" right on this board.

Maddy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:01 pm Enough, Doodle. You've gone way beyond anything that remotely resembles logical argument and are now just hurling insults at anybody who dares disagree with you. If you have some reason to question WiseOne's credentials or intelligence, let's hear it. She, of all people, has earned her reputation on this board for being a consummately critical thinker and a straight shooter. You, by contrast, are just looking silly.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:06 pm

Maddy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:01 pm Enough, Doodle. You've gone way beyond anything that remotely resembles logical argument and are now just hurling insults at anybody who dares disagree with you. If you have some reason to question WiseOne's credentials or intelligence, let's hear it. She, of all people, has earned her reputation on this board for being a consummately critical thinker and a straight shooter. You, by contrast, are just looking silly.

I blocked him long ago for that same type of behavior. I recommend the same to anyone else who wants to have a happier time reading this board.