Gyroscopic Investing

That tweet tells me nothing useful, and it's not even funny. At least link to a story or something bro.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:43 amCapture.JPG

Is that true or is it just how Brian Williams "remembers" it? :-)

"Covid onset diabetes" and "Covid onset lupus"?

For real?

I'm betting not but I'll leave it to the forum experts.

No one has answered my basic conspiracy question about the dem governors in particular. If Biden wins, does it all start magically disappearing?

Given their current postures, I think not. It would be too obvious.

So they either really believe it, or are really good liars.

The health director in IL, who puts out the numbers daily during their press conference, actually broke down at the podium last week. I do not think it was an act. I was surprised.

I totally worry about future years, when a bad flu season is upon us, do we fall into some level of lockdown mode by default?

One thing I also don't see anyone questioning -- IL in particular, why are our cases rising? Everyone, everywhere is wearing masks. So that leads me down the masks don't really do much rabbit hole. Argh!

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:49 am That tweet tells me nothing useful, and it's not even funny. At least link to a story or something bro.

It was not supposed to be funny. It makes the point of those so willing to cast aside the opinions of professionals and, instead, going with those who have zero expertise. And, here is the related story for you:

https://www.tpr.org/podcast/petrie-dish ... na-berrent

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:32 am

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:49 am That tweet tells me nothing useful, and it's not even funny. At least link to a story or something bro.

It was not supposed to be funny. It makes the point of those so willing to cast aside the opinions of professionals and, instead, going with those who have zero expertise.

I know, but posting a screenshot of a tweet is probably the most low-information thing you can do, very surprised it came from YOU, who's all about reading and watching videos twice to squeeze the most info out of them. Twitter is the stupidest way to put out information, the only way it's effective is when people use it to post links to some other site where they have enough room to inform you/convince you of whatever it is. Actually doing it ON twitter, like when people do those "1/x" posts where they write out an article in 57 tweets, is dumb. Man, I fucking hate twitter.

And even the point of that random dude's rant is absurd, since he seems to be replying to a tweet where a reporter is interviewing a non-expert, saying "lol at all the morons who don't listen to the experts, you should be listening to this photographer from NYC who got sick and started a club about it."

And, here is the related story for you:

https://www.tpr.org/podcast/petrie-dish ... na-berrent

Vinny

Thanks. Been seeing sporadic stories like this for a while now.

Regarding the question of why the Dem governors are doing this: You guys are all familiar with the phrase "drunk with power", right?

When someone is drunk, they often don't act rationally in their own best interests. What the Dem governors are doing might very well result in their citizens not reelecting them, but since they are drunk with power, I really doubt they care.

For those Dem governors, this is the most unchecked power they will ever have over millions of people. Unbelievable rush. The possibility of a second term as governor with a normal, boring, constitutional level of authority probably doesn't even compare to this high.

It seems like most of the Dem governors began their lockdowns with good intentions, honestly believing it might help. But now that we have months of evidence across the world that Covid-1984 spreads widely even under lockdowns and heavy restrictions, altruism no longer explains the governors' continued lockdowns and restrictions. What they are doing now is repeatedly taking hits from the crack pipe of raw, unchecked power, unwilling to let that high slip away.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:08 pm That's a potentially valid thesis. But GOP governors like power just as much as Dem ones do, so if that was the explanation, you would expect at least some of the Republican governors to be acting like this. But they aren't.

I think that due to their political leanings, most of the GOP governors never took that first hit from the lockdown crack pipe. That's the difference.

If you never take that first hit, you generally don't devolve into addiction.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:52 am

WiseOne wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:33 am

MangoMan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:26 am If cases are rising but hospitalizations and deaths aren't, why are they freaking out? People get nasty viruses EVERY YEAR. They stay home for a few days and then get better and life returns to normal.

The "cases" that are being counted currently are in reality positive tests - which includes a fair proportion of false positives. Read this post for some eye opening information on that:

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/2 ... ive-tests/

And, a positive PCR test does not qualify a person as a COVID case. There must also be symptoms consistent with COVID, per the WHO and the CDC both. And, you must also have ruled out other likely possible etiologies.

Hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory illnesses always start rising around this time in the northern tier of the US at least. The real question is whether these are greater than the usual expected range. So far I'd say the answer is NO.

I really wish the media would stop their fear-mongering about COVID. If it weren't for that and the widespread PCR testing, we would have very little idea that anything out of the ordinary is going on. Take those two things away and life could well be perfectly normal right now. Elderly first cousins have died yes, but that sort of thing has always been part of life.

Thank you for that. Now I don't have to be governor of Doodleville.

But it still doesn't explain why half the country is still freaking out. Even if the MSM fuels the fire, there is more going on. Is this just all about Trump? I used to think maybe, but now I'm not so sure.

The media plus the lockdowns & mask mandates are enough to make people freak out. Most people believe what they read in the papers and see on TV, plain and simple. Those that aren't freaking out, of course, are the ones who do our own sanity checking and pay attention to dissenting views. Like you, me, and a few others on the forum.

I'm inclined to think it's a self-perpetuating cycle rather than a diabolical design. Journalists are freaking out just like everyone else, in fact they are probably more susceptible because their logic, science and math skills are limited, and they are much more immersed in news than the average person. So Journalist A writes an article with a tone of terror in it that causes Journalist B to freak out more. Journalist B then writes an even scarier article. Journalist A reads this, grows even more terrified, and escalates the fear factor in his/her next article. And so on. But, I'd allow that there may be an element of sticking it to Trump in all this too.

I've pondered this myself and am really quite stumped about how--in light of all of the actual facts--people are still running around acting like the end of the world is nigh. My own sense is that it's not being driven by actual fear, but more from a driving, unconscious need for a rallying point and for a sense of conformity or solidarity in connection with that. That kind of driving need that arises when your existential platform has been pulled out from under you and you're searching for external validation of something really big that you can hang your hat on. Does that make any sense?

Maddy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:37 pm I've pondered this myself and am really quite stumped about how--in light of all of the actual facts--people are still running around acting like the end of the world is nigh. My own sense is that it's not being driven by actual fear, but more from a driving, unconscious need for a rallying point and for a sense of conformity or solidarity in connection with that. That kind of driving need that arises when your existential platform has been pulled out from under you and you're searching for external validation of something really big that you can hang your hat on. Does that make any sense?

Yep! But you know where I'm coming from.

I wonder if movies like "Outbreak", "World War Z", and others of the same genre may contribute to the fear.

Found this interesting. I don't want to read too much into it. "Ending" vs. "Ended?" Is this trying to say it's over, or still a work in progress?

How do you guys take it? "Accomplishments from first term"

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175 ... dfff5c0000

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:08 pm Found this interesting. I don't want to read too much into it. "Ending" vs. "Ended?" Is this trying to say it's over, or still a work in progress?

How do you guys take it? "Accomplishments from first term"

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175 ... dfff5c0000

In accounting financial statements prepared according to GAAP "Ended" and "Ending" have specific meanings.

"Ended" are those time period in the past. "Ending" is for either pro forma statements or projected statements. Or, at least that is from what I remember a firm partner telling me one day.

Vinny

Wish I could take credit for this jewel, but I can't. . .

"There's a spike in CoVid cases because they're doing more testing. If they did more IQ tests, there'd be a spike in morons."

Maddy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:59 pm Wish I could take credit for this jewel, but I can't. . .

"There's a spike in CoVid cases because they're doing more testing. If they did more IQ tests, there'd be a spike in morons."

Maddy, that may be the quote of the day, week, month, year. You get full credit for sharing the jewel with us!

I don't think the fearmongering will necessarily end after the election because "a crisis is a terrible thing to waste".

Simonjester wrote:
agreed... but high likelihood they move on to the next crisis, the current ones are wearing out..

The height of disregard for others?

Vinny

Dodgers’ Justin Turner Celebrates World Series Win On-Field Despite Testing Positive for Covid-19 Mid-Game

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/do ... uxbndlbing

So NOW it matters again to the market. What a joke.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:33 am The height of disregard for others?

Vinny

Dodgers’ Justin Turner Celebrates World Series Win On-Field Despite Testing Positive for Covid-19 Mid-Game

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/do ... uxbndlbing

In his defense, a positive test doesn't mean very much. Did you see the article that (I think) WiseOne posted earlier?
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/2 ... ive-tests/

The PCR test has a false positive rate which means that the great majority of positive tests are false positives.

Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:50 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:33 am The height of disregard for others?

Vinny

Dodgers’ Justin Turner Celebrates World Series Win On-Field Despite Testing Positive for Covid-19 Mid-Game

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/do ... uxbndlbing

In his defense, a positive test doesn't mean very much. Did you see the article that (I think) WiseOne posted earlier?
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/2 ... ive-tests/

The PCR test has a false positive rate which means that the great majority of positive tests are false positives.

Maybe. But it is going to result in everyone who was on that field when he came back on having to go into a 14 day quarantine. He clearly put his needs over the repercussions for others.

Vinny

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?

Yes...WHY? Why are news outlets so focused on cases? If this is a trend, in years forward I hate to hear about # of cold cases, flu cases, etc. Only if there is a significant bad outcome should it matter.

If that was the focus, it seems we should have been rightly worried for a few months, and then gotten somewhat back to normal.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:14 am

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:03 am Why is everyone so fixated on test numbers here then if they are so fraught with problems? Why not just look at excess death stats? Can't we compare years worth of data and compare to 2020 to give us a pretty good picture of what is happening?

Yes...WHY? Why are news outlets so focused on cases? If this is a trend, in years forward I hate to hear about # of cold cases, flu cases, etc. Only if there is a significant bad outcome should it matter.

If that was the focus, it seems we should have been rightly worried for a few months, and then gotten somewhat back to normal.

Yes.

I think part of the issue is hospital capacity. This is a legitimate concern if many recoveries are due to improving treatment options. Would Trump or Christie have lived if they hadn't had very prompt hospital treatment? That's a good question. If the case numbers climb to a point that prevents treatment then our death numbers could increase significantly. For that reason I think it's important to monitor case numbers and hospital capacity along with excess death stats. That will give us a pretty clear picture of how to manage this and what our outcomes look like.