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Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:04 pm
by Kshartle
MachineGhost wrote:
decades of debasement "baked into the cake" suddenly bursting forth in less than a decade in the 70's. So say the dollar after depegging lost exactly 90% at the final peak in 1980; so extrapolate the loss back to 1933 and it'll more or less be the average debasement of the dollar per year: 1.37%. Zzzzzzzz.
If you start at $20 an ounce in 1933 you actually need an average annual price increase of 8.6% per year to get to the 1980 high, not 1.37%.
As always please anyone check my math.
To get to today's price of $1,250 it's about 5.25% and the 2011 high would have needed an even 6%, since 1933. Are those numbers such a snore?
I think it can be safely argued that our current socialist state is more likely to produce higher inlfation, WWII notwithstanding.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2014 2:48 pm
by MachineGhost
[quote=May 23, 2014]...the World Gold Council warns that demand in China, the world's biggest buyer of gold, is waning. An association of Hong Kong jewelers reported last week that gold purchases in China are off 30% from last year.[/quote]
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:09 am
by Reub
I would bet that India's demand will be increasing.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 6:43 am
by dualstow
...and this morning, gold proves the experts wrong again.
Article is half a day old, but still holds true.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-g ... 45727.html
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:01 am
by dualstow
... and quite the plunge today :-0
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:42 am
by dragoncar
dualstow wrote:
... and quite the plunge today :-0
Gold is pretty abusive on the downside.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:16 pm
by barrett
I totally forgot to tell you guys that I was liquidating a large gold position earlier today. My bad. Sorry for the drop.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:53 pm
by dualstow
barrett wrote:
I totally forgot to tell you guys that I was liquidating a large gold position earlier today. My bad. Sorry for the drop.
Hopefully just a bathroom metaphor.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:04 pm
by buddtholomew
I'm glad we can all joke about the decline, but this asset keeps me awake at night for this very reason.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:27 pm
by jco
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:07 pm
by modeljc
Most folks can't believe in an asset class that producded -.86 CAGR from Jan. 1980 thru Jan. 2004 or DEAD money for 24 years. Gets real heavy to carry when 3 year old treasuries had a CAGR of + 7.94%.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:56 pm
by annieB
Looks cheap so I bought a chunk.
I can always return to scream.....
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:19 pm
by Cortopassi
ModelJC,
So you're going to pick the Jan 1980 peak, and stop at 2004. Seems like someone is trying to manipulate their end result.
Pretty sure I can pick appropriate timeframes for any asset and make them look very good or very bad.
Mike
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:55 pm
by modeljc
Cortopassi wrote:
ModelJC,
So you're going to pick the Jan 1980 peak, and stop at 2004. Seems like someone is trying to manipulate their end result.
Pretty sure I can pick appropriate timeframes for any asset and make them look very good or very bad.
Mike
Try picking a major asset class for 24 years and leave out 1932. My point is not to manipulate the results only: "That most folks can't say with anything for 24 years"
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:04 pm
by Cortopassi
Ahh, now I understand what you are getting at!
Mike
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:18 pm
by dragoncar
jco wrote:
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy
more?
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:22 pm
by buddtholomew
dragoncar wrote:
jco wrote:
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy
more?
No, speculators can borrow less as their leverage has decreased.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:48 pm
by rickb
buddtholomew wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
jco wrote:
Every time metals have their CME margin decreased the price collapses, I can remember this happening at least 3 times in last few years. Anyone know these dates off the top of their head? I want to see what gold did in following days/weeks after those similar events.
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy
more?
No, speculators can borrow less as their leverage has decreased.
Budd - I think you have this backwards. Decreasing the margin amount increases the allowable leverage. Increasing the margin amount reduces it.
JCO - There's a list of historical margin amounts here:
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-m ... resent.pdf . It's from
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-m ... rgins.html
In the past, I'm pretty sure there have been gold price hits when the margin was increased (increasing the margin creates an immediate margin call for anyone holding contracts with the minimum margin amount). I agree with dragoncar that it doesn't seem like decreasing the margin amount should negatively impact the price.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:56 pm
by buddtholomew
rickb wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
Am I missing something? If the margin decreases, then doesn't that mean speculators can buy more?
No, speculators can borrow less as their leverage has decreased.
Budd - I think you have this backwards. Decreasing the margin amount increases the allowable leverage. Increasing the margin amount reduces it.
JCO - There's a list of historical margin amounts here:
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-m ... resent.pdf . It's from
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/risk-m ... rgins.html
In the past, I'm pretty sure there have been gold price hits when the margin was increased (increasing the margin creates an immediate margin call for anyone holding contracts with the minimum margin amount). I agree with dragoncar that it doesn't seem like decreasing the margin amount should negatively impact the price.
Correct. Decreasing margin requirements allows the investor to control the same number of contracts with less capital. I was mislead by the previous post. Did the CME raise margin requirements?
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:41 pm
by rickb
buddtholomew wrote:
Did the CME raise margin requirements?
Nope. Reduced them as of close of business today -
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-07-13/CM ... tures.html
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:43 pm
by buddtholomew
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:10 pm
by rickb
buddtholomew wrote:
Bullish for gold?
Theoretically, yes - but the gold price seems to act fairly strangely fairly often. Almost as if there were very powerful forces with unlimited amounts of money, like, I don't know, maybe central banks or something, keeping the price down.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:26 am
by annieB
Did MG get his buy signal on gold?
I think it was close....
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:43 am
by Libertarian666
rickb wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:
Bullish for gold?
Theoretically, yes - but the gold price seems to act fairly strangely fairly often. Almost as if there were very powerful forces with unlimited amounts of money, like, I don't know, maybe central banks or something, keeping the price down.
Especially when one of those central banks is having its head speak shortly.
I'm sure that's just a coincidence, like all the other times a similar unexplained event occurred.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:14 am
by buddtholomew
I curse the day I ever found the PP. I would be way ahead if I just invested in a 60/40 allocation and forgot about gold. I hate gold!