Gyroscopic Investing

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:23 am Reading this is a relief to me...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... from-china

I now assume that the risk is negligent from my daily mail and newspaper.

Vinny

That sounds right, assuming that your daily mail and newspaper come from China.

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:23 am Reading this is a relief to me...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... from-china

I now assume that the risk is negligent from my daily mail and newspaper.

Vinny

That sounds right, assuming that your daily mail and newspaper come from China.

But the article stated that the virus does not last long on porous surfaces, which would apply to mail / newspapers coming from anywhere?

Vinny

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:41 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:23 am Reading this is a relief to me...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... from-china

I now assume that the risk is negligent from my daily mail and newspaper.

Vinny

That sounds right, assuming that your daily mail and newspaper come from China.

But the article stated that the virus does not last long on porous surfaces, which would apply to mail / newspapers coming from anywhere?

Vinny

I believe he's pointing out your erroneous use of "negligent" rather than "negligible".

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:31 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:31 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:21 am

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:18 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:42 pm

yankees60 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:30 pm Is there anyone here old enough to cite anything in our past history where events are moving with the incredible speed that they currently are? This is a fairly well-informed group but I sense even we are struggling to stay on top of all these new developments.

I thought I had something, but now I’m pretty sure it was the first 15 minutes of Bird Box.

This is clearly the most serious crisis in a generation... probably longer. As an historian by academic training I am hard pressed to think of anything in my lifetime that had this level of immediate urgency. The Cuban Missile Crisis, obviously more serious, predates my arrival by three years.

I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis. And, though I was only 11 years old at the time of it we were completely aware of its implications. During it while in school I wrote the year "1963" on my piece of paper and the girl next to me, Maria Clemento, shrieked, "We are not going to be alive then!"

Vinny

And, for those of you not even being close to being alive during the Cuban Missile Crisis...you may not have known the drills we had as a normal part of school life.

Now there are "active shooter" drills regularly carried out in schools (or, at least that is the impression I am under).

Then, we'd all leave our classrooms, march down the hallways, and then crouch down low, covering our heads with our hands....as if that was going to protect us from an atomic bomb! I'm sure there must be YouTube videos of this drill as I'm almost equally sure this was also done in all schools throughout the country Libertarian666? Mountaineer?

Vinny

We had those drills too.

I don't think the idea was that covering our heads was going to protect us from an atom bomb as such, just from shattering glass.

However, my 55 year old memory seems to be that we filed out of our classrooms and did our crouching and covering in hallways with NO glass. Therefore, my deducing that we were doing this to protect us from the atomic bomb.

Vinny

Xan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:43 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:41 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:23 am Reading this is a relief to me...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... from-china

I now assume that the risk is negligent from my daily mail and newspaper.

Vinny

That sounds right, assuming that your daily mail and newspaper come from China.

But the article stated that the virus does not last long on porous surfaces, which would apply to mail / newspapers coming from anywhere?

Vinny

I believe he's pointing out your erroneous use of "negligent" rather than "negligible".

Possibly (and, thanks for point out my obvious typing the different word than I'd intended to type), but his comment seemed to somewhat be questioning my logic. Obviously, Libertarian666 knows to what he was responding therefore he can let us know.

Vinny

Europe is now the epicenter, so good for Trump curbing travel from the continent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/europe- ... -says.html

Why Italy?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018 ... in-tuscany 
 
https://www.google.com/search?q=italy+c ... e&ie=UTF-8

The “Made in Italy” label conjures images of little old men and women in aprons and spectacles, stopped over wooden tables, cutting leather and sewing by hand in workshops that dot the hills of Tuscany. It certainly doesn’t make you picture Chinese immigrants toiling long hours in ramshackle, poorly illuminated sheds, and then sleeping in small rooms behind plywood right there in the factories.  

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:03 pm Why Italy?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018 ... in-tuscany 
 
https://www.google.com/search?q=italy+c ... e&ie=UTF-8

The “Made in Italy” label conjures images of little old men and women in aprons and spectacles, stopped over wooden tables, cutting leather and sewing by hand in workshops that dot the hills of Tuscany. It certainly doesn’t make you picture Chinese immigrants toiling long hours in ramshackle, poorly illuminated sheds, and then sleeping in small rooms behind plywood right there in the factories.  

Did you see that movie Gomorrah? The film, not the series. I think it’s a play on words, as it sounds like both Sodom & _____ and the local pronunciation of the Italian crime syndicate, the Camorra.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gomorrah_(film)

It shows the Italian craftsman training Chinese workers.

Interesting film. I saw it in a film festival back when people still went to movie theaters.

Well that inevitable email finally came through. My work "highly encourages" anyone who is able to work from home "until further notice". Mind you, most of us have been working from home the majority of this week already. I do have one thing I need to go into the office for Monday, but after that who knows when I'll next see the office?

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:41 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:23 am Reading this is a relief to me...

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... from-china

I now assume that the risk is negligent from my daily mail and newspaper.

Vinny

That sounds right, assuming that your daily mail and newspaper come from China.

But the article stated that the virus does not last long on porous surfaces, which would apply to mail / newspapers coming from anywhere?

Vinny

That's ancient news from over a month ago.
Here's something slightly more recent: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articl ... oronavirus. It says up to several days.

BTW, I wasn't commenting about your use of "negligent" for "negligible". In fact, I didn't even notice that. What I was suggesting was that local mail doesn't take that long to get here.

Anyway, your mail carrier may be contaminated himself. We're leaving our mail outside for a day before bringing it in to minimize that risk.

Drug cartels switch to hand sanitizer
https://babylonbee.com/news/mexican-dru ... -sanitizer

Looks like the Italians are getting by...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... kdown.html

Reminds me of a great line from one of Weird Al" Yankovic's songs... something about being stranded at the gas station of love and stuck on the self service pump.

How are you holding up, Ad?

Aside from a slight cough, I feel fine. I'm planning to catch up on some reading and maybe write a couple articles for Wikipedia that I've had on the back burner for a while. Thank you for your solicitude.

Worked today and went to the gym.

-Had one guy insist on doing the elbow thing instead of shaking hands
- one of my coworkers bought 2 bottles of hand sanitizer for 30 dollars
- in the public bathroom every guy was washing their hands obsessively
- covid-19 notices of potential closure at the mall and rec centre
- every conversation I overheard in the food court was about the virus
- one of my coworkers is sick after travelling and is self-isolating

Holy shit this thing is taking over all of public consciousness.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:40 pm Worked today and went to the gym.

-Had one guy insist on doing the elbow thing instead of shaking hands
- one of my coworkers bought 2 bottles of hand sanitizer for 30 dollars
- in the public bathroom every guy was washing their hands obsessively
- covid-19 notices of potential closure at the mall and rec centre
- every conversation I overheard in the food court was about the virus
- one of my coworkers is sick after travelling and is self-isolating

Holy shit this thing is taking over all of public consciousness.

It is going to put us into a recession at the very least.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:40 pm -Had one guy insist on doing the elbow thing instead of shaking hands

An old guy at work did this to me. "I guess we're supposed to do this now" he said with an apologetic grin. I went with it, but I had no idea wtf was going on at the time. It's weird to get schooled on what the cool kids were doing nowadays by a geezer. Oldsters getting hip BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO.

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:40 pm Worked today and went to the gym.

-Had one guy insist on doing the elbow thing instead of shaking hands
- one of my coworkers bought 2 bottles of hand sanitizer for 30 dollars
- in the public bathroom every guy was washing their hands obsessively
- covid-19 notices of potential closure at the mall and rec centre
- every conversation I overheard in the food court was about the virus
- one of my coworkers is sick after travelling and is self-isolating

Holy shit this thing is taking over all of public consciousness.

Hence my contention it's not been since World War II that for the United States (and seemingly now Canada) we've experienced anything like this that has permeated so many aspects of life and for almost everyone in our countries.

Vinny

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:31 am

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:40 pm -Had one guy insist on doing the elbow thing instead of shaking hands

An old guy at work did this to me. "I guess we're supposed to do this now" he said with an apologetic grin. I went with it, but I had no idea wtf was going on at the time. It's weird to get schooled on what the cool kids were doing nowadays by a geezer. Oldsters getting hip BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO.

Caller into my local sports talk radio stated that it was all a plot by millennials who purposely went to China to then bring back it to the United States to wipe out the old people which would then lead to improving the future viability of Social Security. Which was somewhat the theme of the ending discussion I had with my boss as I was leaving on Thursday. Of course, both the caller and our discussion were in jest.

Vinny

Another great article by Dalio published this week: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-need- ... ded4b883a5

pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:32 am Another great article by Dalio published this week: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-need- ... ded4b883a5

I'd be curious to debate this part of the article:

Some people will argue that providing such assistance is a bad idea. They say that our Darwinian economic system is designed to shake out those who don’t manage their finances well, or that fiscal assistance will grow the deficit.

Neither of those arguments makes any sense to me. This crisis is not a test of people and companies’ economic viability, and the cost of not providing assistance will be greater than the cost of providing it.

I'm not sure I 100% agree with the following statement, but do we want to bail-out those who haven't saved for an eventual downturn in business such that they can leave the lights on? Will this not create the same negative effects as bailing out the banks/banksters in 2008 did where the banks that were irresponsible actually gained market share (by being reckless, then got bailed out), and those that behaved responsibly were run out of business as a result (as their marketshare dwindled)?

It seems there's some serious moral hazard here, where being conservative, prepared, and self-sufficient is a liability, and no one does it anymore because everyone else who runs fast and loose is bailed out.

Thoughts?

drumminj wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:51 am

pmward wrote: ↑Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:32 am Another great article by Dalio published this week: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-need- ... ded4b883a5

I'd be curious to debate this part of the article:

Some people will argue that providing such assistance is a bad idea. They say that our Darwinian economic system is designed to shake out those who don’t manage their finances well, or that fiscal assistance will grow the deficit.

Neither of those arguments makes any sense to me. This crisis is not a test of people and companies’ economic viability, and the cost of not providing assistance will be greater than the cost of providing it.

I'm not sure I 100% agree with the following statement, but do we want to bail-out those who haven't saved for an eventual downturn in business such that they can leave the lights on? Will this not create the same negative effects as bailing out the banks/banksters in 2008 did where the banks that were irresponsible actually gained market share (by being reckless, then got bailed out), and those that behaved responsibly were run out of business as a result (as their marketshare dwindled)?

It seems there's some serious moral hazard here, where being conservative, prepared, and self-sufficient is a liability, and no one does it anymore because everyone else who runs fast and loose is bailed out.

Thoughts?

Well he isn't just talking about business. He is talking about people effected as well, which was something that wasn't done in 2008. I also think we are already seeing this start to happen in the background. We have in the same week Trump announce small business relief loans, payroll tax reductions, and social spending for hourly workers that are forced out of work due to the virus in one way or another. We also had the Fed announce 1.5T of immediate liquidity, an increase of overnight lending to 175 billion per night, and signal it would be willing to provide another 5T if the situation warrants it. So this is already beginning to happen all on it's own.

In normal times I think that Darwinism is fine. But in a crisis like this, you cannot compound the issues. Things can spiral out of hand really quick in a crisis. I mean look at the grocery store runs going on right now. It doesn't take much to turn that into bank runs as well... and we all know from history how that plays out. Right now the demand for dollars has skyrocketed, as people and businesses are tightening their belts, saving more, and some businesses and people will require additional lending to keep the lights on. I do think that even if they do go all in on helping to prop the economy up, that we are still going to see some Darwinism take effect. I think there will be a shakeout of zombie businesses and that there is a chance that this virus crisis turns into a junk bond crisis, at which point a lot of low credit companies will go under. Some companies going under is fine. Like for instance, if a small weak airline goes under, the customers go to a rival, and with one less competitor prices can go up. But there are some businesses where the knock-on effects of a business going under, like a large bank a'la 2008, could completely destroy the system and the effects to the average person would be greater than if the bailout was provided. Either way, I think the emphasis this time around will be more on saving individuals and small-medium businesses. Letting the consumers and small businesses decide where to place these extra dollars. This also would be a good strategic political move for Trump. He can run as the man that saved the average Joe and the small businesses owners across America, which would give him quite an argument to combat the progressive liberals. It also would cater to the small blue collar worker that ultimately elected him in the first place. He helps his base and pours some water on the socialism fire, it's a perfect political move for him, especially since he has made some severe and very public mistakes in the early game of the virus response.

There are times to be tight and there are times to be accommodative. I think this is a time to be accommodative. Right now, the most important thing is to just weather the storm. Nobody could have predicted this. A virus like this is a natural disaster, no different than a large scale earth quake, hurricane, wildfire, etc. The government is responsible to step up and do anything in its power to limit the damage of and rebuild after a natural disaster. A company or person should not be left to die simply because their home/place of business got destroyed in an earthquake.

In order to not derail the topic of this thread, I started a new topic to discuss the Dalio commentary here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=10467&p=187828#p187828