Gyroscopic Investing

Florida Death chart for August. Only 4 deaths on 9/7. Looks like either the virus is weakening significantly or we are well on our way to herd immunity. Maybe both....



What I think is significant about this, besides the fact that Florida has a large population of elderly people, is that August in Florida is probably the month when the most time is spent indoors - like the equivalent of January in the colder climates. With fall and cooler weather approaching people will be spending more time outdoors so a second wave appears less likely than it is for the folks up north.

pp4me wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:06 am Florida Death chart for August. Only 4 deaths on 9/7. Looks like either the virus is weakening significantly or we are well on our way to herd immunity. Maybe both....



What I think is significant about this, besides the fact that Florida has a large population of elderly people, is that August in Florida is probably the month when the most time is spent indoors - like the equivalent of January in the colder climates. With fall and cooler weather approaching people will be spending more time outdoors so a second wave appears less likely than it is for the folks up north.

Never really realized that. In essence, Florida is our country's "equator", i.e., our part of the country with the most extreme heat?

Vinny

Hmm, I don't think Florida is even close to the heat out west. It gets really muggy and airless down there though, which I think is worse.

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:26 am Never really realized that. In essence, Florida is our country's "equator", i.e., our part of the country with the most extreme heat?

Didn't say that. Just observed that August is probably the month in Florida where people spend the most time indoors.

Temperatures where I live very rarely get over 92 degrees and this often includes an afternoon thunderstorm to cool things down.

It's obviously hotter in Death Valley.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:36 am Hmm, I don't think Florida is even close to the heat out west. It gets really muggy and airless down there though, which I think is worse.

I think the highest temperature I ever experienced was 110 or 115 around 9 AM in July 1981 at the Boulder Dam. I was told it would not feel that hot since it was "dry heat". But it felt hot!

Vinny

pp4me wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:40 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:26 am Never really realized that. In essence, Florida is our country's "equator", i.e., our part of the country with the most extreme heat?

Didn't say that. Just observed that August is probably the month in Florida where people spend the most time indoors.

Temperatures where I live very rarely get over 92 degrees and this often includes an afternoon thunderstorm to cool things down.

It's obviously hotter in Death Valley.

When I used to take frequent bike rides during beautiful summer days here in western Massachusetts I'd almost never see anyone outside. I'd always wondered if they were all inside their air-conditioned homes.

I have no air conditioning in my house and did not turn on the air conditioning in my car once this year, just opening all the windows.

Vinny

Another reason I like dry, desert heat more than humid, (but less hot) swamp heat is that mosquitoes absolutely LOVE my blood, and I have absurd reactions to mosquito bites.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:57 am Another reason I like dry, desert heat more than humid, (but less hot) swamp heat is that mosquitoes absolutely LOVE my blood, and I have absurd reactions to mosquito bites.

I'm the opposite. I've read that mosquitos like dark skin and people who sweat, both of which could describe me, but they don't come after me. While other people around me are complaining I remain untouched. I can go all year with one bite tops. I spend a lot of time outside (generally outside until the sun goes down (and even longer) and no bites so far this year.

Is it a blood thing?

On the other hand, the black flies are something else. They definitely go after me. But it's generally a suicide mission for them as they seem to be far less reactive than regular flies. It's fairly easy to kill those black flies when they are on me.

I'm generally a live and let live person but if you are mounting an attack on me then I'm going to fight back.

Vinny

pp4me wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:06 am Florida Death chart for August. Only 4 deaths on 9/7. Looks like either the virus is weakening significantly or we are well on our way to herd immunity. Maybe both....

Where are you getting your numbers? My go to site during the pandemic has been Worldometers. Should I be looking elsewhere? Just pulled this up:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

That site shows 17 fatalities in FL for 9/7 and over 700 total for the seven days prior to that (8/31-9/6).

barrett wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:01 pm
Where are you getting your numbers? My go to site during the pandemic has been Worldometers. Should I be looking elsewhere? Just pulled this up:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

That site shows 17 fatalities in FL for 9/7 and over 700 total for the seven days prior to that (8/31-9/6).

Getting mine from here...

https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... db9b25e429

I've noticed that the most recent death numbers do tend to increase over time, probably because of a lag in reporting. It said 4 this morning and now it says 25 so apparently more people died over the labor day weekend. Still, the downward trend is the main thing and it's encouraging.

pp4me wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:40 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:26 am Never really realized that. In essence, Florida is our country's "equator", i.e., our part of the country with the most extreme heat?

Didn't say that. Just observed that August is probably the month in Florida where people spend the most time indoors.

Temperatures where I live very rarely get over 92 degrees and this often includes an afternoon thunderstorm to cool things down.

It's obviously hotter in Death Valley.

Yes, when we were in Death Valley it was 122 degrees.
But it was indeed a dry heat!

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:41 pm

pp4me wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:40 am

yankees60 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:26 am Never really realized that. In essence, Florida is our country's "equator", i.e., our part of the country with the most extreme heat?

Didn't say that. Just observed that August is probably the month in Florida where people spend the most time indoors.

Temperatures where I live very rarely get over 92 degrees and this often includes an afternoon thunderstorm to cool things down.

It's obviously hotter in Death Valley.

Yes, when we were in Death Valley it was 122 degrees.
But it was indeed a dry heat!

We liked the Death Valley temperature when we visited the US. The locals thought we were crazy walking in that
The strange thing was that we didn't get sunburnt unlike in Australia.

Anyways, probably cheap property coming up in Melbourne -> https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/melb ... 909-p55ttq and https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/0 ... nzinomics/

For the historically inclined
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX1fAY-zYsM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ4PzwvuXsQ

Must try to visit Florida and say hello

Don't know if this should be under the Trump topic, but any comments about the president on tape with Woodward and saying how much worse the virus was than the flu, that it was airborne, and five times worse, then he says he downplayed it to prevent panic?

Even this will be wordsmithed to sound like he did the right thing, right?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:32 pm saying how much worse the virus was than the flu, that it was airborne, and five times worse, then he says he downplayed it to prevent panic?
...

Assume you are the CEO. You get shit news.

You act on the danger. (Cut off flights from China and Europe). Tell the governors to get their shit together. Enable the Defense Production Act. Tell the public not to panic.

What would you have done?

Not saying I would not have done the same thing, possibly, but coupling that with telling it how it actually was to a reporter for a book is nonsensical, is it not?

A reporter who took down Nixon.

His ego or something overrides logic all the time.

There is something about having yourself together that makes it comfortable to talk about how you work and think and plan.

I've been accused of being too honest myself a few times. I prefer it over the alternative.

Mark Leavy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:58 pm There is something about having yourself together that makes it comfortable to talk about how you work and think and plan.

I've been accused of being too honest myself a few times. I prefer it over the alternative.

+1

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:32 pm Don't know if this should be under the Trump topic, but any comments about the president on tape with Woodward and saying how much worse the virus was than the flu, that it was airborne, and five times worse, then he says he downplayed it to prevent panic?

Even this will be wordsmithed to sound like he did the right thing, right?

They played a clip on Fox last night showing Trump saying the same thing in public back in March with the same reaction from the media. So this one was just a re-run. They need to come up with new material and I'm sure they're working on it as we speak.

Of course, they also played clips from all the Dem leaders downplaying the virus and calling him a xenophobe and racist for the travel bans.

Joe Biden was standing by ready to react to this "bombshell" and he pretty much accused Trump of doing this "on purpose" because he didn't care about the American people and wanted them to die. What a stupid thing to say. If you even assumed that Trump was evil enough to do that, how in the heck would it be of any benefit to him?

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:17 pm The barbarians are at the gates. Trump is standing between us and them.

Ok, let's say Trump wins. Perfectly possible.

Dems keep house. GOP keeps senate.

What changes over the next 4 years? Anything? I see the same Twittering, investigations, etc. as the last 4 years. Is there something magical that can happen to allow him to really change the direction of where anything is headed? Are we simply putting off the barbarians for another 4 years?

At some point it will swing back Dem. Is the US toast at that point, in your opinion? Do you just want another 4 years to figure out where to move?

I am really serious here. Dems say the world will end if Trump wins. Ditto from the GOP if Trump loses.

Is it really that bad? Or are we all just so used to exaggeration that we speak in these hyperbolic terms all the time?

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:37 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:17 pm The barbarians are at the gates. Trump is standing between us and them.

Ok, let's say Trump wins. Perfectly possible.

Dems keep house. GOP keeps senate.

What changes over the next 4 years? Anything? I see the same Twittering, investigations, etc. as the last 4 years. Is there something magical that can happen to allow him to really change the direction of where anything is headed? Are we simply putting off the barbarians for another 4 years?

At some point it will swing back Dem. Is the US toast at that point, in your opinion? Do you just want another 4 years to figure out where to move?

I am really serious here. Dems say the world will end if Trump wins. Ditto from the GOP if Trump loses.

Is it really that bad? Or are we all just so used to exaggeration that we speak in these hyperbolic terms all the time?

My extremely liberal friend believes that if Biden is elected by the end of his term it will end up with both sides being dissatisfied. That then guarantees a Republican president in 2024.

Vinny

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:07 pm
But if he is re-elected, the Democrat party will splinter into (at least) two factions: a communist portion and a less insane portion.

This does make sense.

Do you see the same for republicans?

Simonjester wrote:
i don't think it is as likely, the neocon progressive republicans will be the new moderate dems, and they have begun there drift away already, starting when Trump was elected. the "i wish it would happen realignment" would be if the trump republicans drifted a bit closer to libertarian and assimilated the sane part of the Libertarian party..

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:01 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:07 pm
But if he is re-elected, the Democrat party will splinter into (at least) two factions: a communist portion and a less insane portion.

This does make sense.

Do you see the same for republicans?

If this graph from The Economist is accurate, then Republicans have been fairly consistent for decades, while Democrats have become more disparate as time has gone on, so it would seem unlikely that Republicans are going to splinter into different factions IMO.

This Doctor Will Heal Your Portfolio

A physician turned financial planner says the coronavirus is an opportunity for you to tackle “fixable risks.”

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/inves ... ances.html

"To me, the coronavirus is yet another wake-up call for folks to tackle fixable risks.

What do you mean by “fixable risks”? Your overall health, for one. For example, the flu kills a ton of people every year, and we have flu shots available that most people don’t get. Or say you’re a smoker, or you don’t wear a seatbelt while driving. Those are fixable risks that people don’t think about day-to-day that put them at much bigger risk than something like the coronavirus. It’s important for people to live mindfully in terms of taking care of their health.[/b]

Passed on by an emergency room doctor...

Vinny

Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation”
as We Await a Vaccine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NE ... Tools=true

FYI, I watched a stream of our local high school board meeting. During public comments, about 25 people came up from a group called Reopen D214.

The speakers were articulate and passionate and really gave it to the board about the changing metrics, the issues with remote learning for many students, the lack of socializing, etc.

They made excellent points, esp. considering that in our midst here in suburban Chicago we have all the Catholic schools at least partially in person.

It was good to hear, and hopefully it will actually produce some results.