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Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:06 pm
by Alanw
Those who had a stock heavy portfolio in 2008 will tend to view things differently (I think). It was very scary seeing the possibility of the U.S. including the stock market failing.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:04 pm
by Cortopassi
Alanw wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:06 pm
Those who had a stock heavy portfolio in 2008 will tend to view things differently (I think). It was very scary seeing the possibility of the U.S. including the stock market failing.
Bingo. But on the last couple days, where bonds got whacked yesterday, stocks today, and gold barely moved on both, doesn't make for fun checking of the portfolio.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:42 pm
by buddtholomew
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:04 pm
Alanw wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:06 pm
Those who had a stock heavy portfolio in 2008 will tend to view things differently (I think). It was very scary seeing the possibility of the U.S. including the stock market failing.
Bingo. But on the last couple days, where bonds got whacked yesterday, stocks today, and gold barely moved on both, doesn't make for fun checking of the portfolio.
It's more than that in my eyes...
Gold and LTT's are down 8 and 9% respectively.
Stocks are declining and the assets that distinguish the PP from other portfolios (Gold and LTT's) are declining even further.
Nothing like giving up the wholesome gains in stocks on the upside and having your other assets decline even further when stocks finally pull back.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:02 pm
by Cortopassi
Budd,
There is no rule, as we've seen, that they are direct inverses.
And you can kill yourself thinking about the delta loss that is happening across them now.
But if we get into a 50% stock bear decline, it's probably reasonable to say bonds won't go that far. Nor should gold. And you'll be happier to have them, or less pissed at least.
Not much benefit right now though!
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pm
by Alanw
Agree with all. The PP has not been kind to investors this year, nor has it been terrible. Remember Harry Browne said to look at your portfolio annually. I'm sure no one here, including myself adheres to that rule. In 2008 the PP suffered a loss of about 2%. Given the circumstances of that year, what investor wouldn't have been happy with that result.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pm
by stuper1
Obviously you people don't understand the ground rules about discussing these things with Budd. If gold and LTTs don't react immediately when stocks go down, then somebody lied to him about the HBPP and he is not pleased. Also, you can't point to any performance that happened prior to him buying into the HBPP, which as I recall was around 2010. Nothing that happened prior to 2010 counts for anything. The only thing that counts is what has happened to him personally in the last 8 years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:27 pm
by buddtholomew
stuper1 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pm
Obviously you people don't understand the ground rules about discussing these things with Budd. If gold and LTTs don't react immediately when stocks go down, then somebody lied to him about the HBPP and he is not pleased. Also, you can't point to any performance that happened prior to him buying into the HBPP, which as I recall was around 2010. Nothing that happened prior to 2010 counts for anything. The only thing that counts is what has happened to him personally in the last 8 years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
Holy shit, this is the perfect synopsis.
I want to make it my signature but not sure if it will fit.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:31 pm
by stuper1
I forgot to add one thing. Other than those little quirks which admittedly bug me a little, Budd is a great guy.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:20 pm
by Cortopassi
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:27 pm
stuper1 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 pm
Obviously you people don't understand the ground rules about discussing these things with Budd. If gold and LTTs don't react immediately when stocks go down, then somebody lied to him about the HBPP and he is not pleased. Also, you can't point to any performance that happened prior to him buying into the HBPP, which as I recall was around 2010. Nothing that happened prior to 2010 counts for anything. The only thing that counts is what has happened to him personally in the last 8 years.
Once you understand those ground rules, then feel free to engage him in dialogue.
Oh, and don't forget that he is worth something like $14M, so his losses are probably a lot bigger than yours. Nevermind that he could invest in nothing but Tbills and still live a very comfortable life for 50+ years.
Holy shit, this is the perfect synopsis.
I want to make it my signature but not sure if it will fit.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:55 pm
by Don
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:42 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:04 pm
Alanw wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:06 pm
Those who had a stock heavy portfolio in 2008 will tend to view things differently (I think). It was very scary seeing the possibility of the U.S. including the stock market failing.
Bingo. But on the last couple days, where bonds got whacked yesterday, stocks today, and gold barely moved on both, doesn't make for fun checking of the portfolio.
It's more than that in my eyes...
Gold and LTT's are down 8 and 9% respectively.
Stocks are declining and the assets that distinguish the PP from other portfolios (Gold and LTT's) are declining even further.
Nothing like giving up the wholesome gains in stocks on the upside and having your other assets decline even further when stocks finally pull back.
It's probably instructive to find a previous period of time when we had similar economic conditions as a template for where the PP might be headed.
Rising rates and an overvalued stock market seem to be where we're at. Could we dare compare this period to 2000?
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:46 am
by Cortopassi
Nothing good going on today. At this rate, I'll finish 2018 with the largest PP loss since 2015.
But then I get to buy more bonds and gold! Yipee!
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pm
by buddtholomew
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:46 am
Nothing good going on today. At this rate, I'll finish 2018 with the largest PP loss since 2015.
But then I get to buy more bonds and gold! Yipee!
Oh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:07 pm
by Ugly_Bird
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pm
Oh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
What would be magnificent for a day like today?
Let me guess...Crystal ball would be magnificent.
Does anybody have one to borrow? :-)
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:57 pm
by buddtholomew
Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:07 pm
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pm
Oh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
What would be magnificent for a day like today?
Let me guess...Crystal ball would be magnificent.
Does anybody have one to borrow? :-)
It’s an 8 year pattern for me, not a single day.
Anyway, don’t want to argue as I bought more SCV and TLT today to restore 30/20/15/35.
I am invested in the PP like many others.
Just wish one day we can justify holding.
Re: 2 PP Portfolios, 6 months performance
Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:14 pm
by Dieter
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:57 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:07 pm
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:11 pm
Oh come on Corto, just listen to everyone else on the board telling you how magnificent the PP is.
What would be magnificent for a day like today?
Let me guess...Crystal ball would be magnificent.
Does anybody have one to borrow? :-)
It’s an 8 year pattern for me, not a single day.
Anyway, don’t want to argue as I bought more SCV and TLT today to restore 30/20/15/35.
I am invested in the PP like many others.
Just wish one day we can justify holding.
Yup! Although I worried less (although for record, never all in PP).
And for SCV to beat SP 500 while I'm at it....