Gyroscopic Investing

They don't say what "election outcome" they're tracking, i.e. popoular or electoral.

MachineGhost wrote:

Reub wrote:The most accurate poll in the last 3 elections, the IBD/TIPP poll, has Trump in the lead 41%-40%. It appears as if Trump is gaining support in their poll too.

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-t ... tion-poll/

Where is this chart from, MG?

Same place you posted.

Trump still with a 1 point lead:

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump ... tipp-poll/

Latest IBD Poll has Trump +2 in a poll that has more Dems than voted for Obama in 2008. Trump may be well ahead. This poll has 8% more Democrats voting than Rep's so it's looking very good for Trump. Oh, also ahead by 18% among independent voters.

IBD actually reweighted this poll 10 points in Hillary's favor just to keep it close!

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-t ... tion-poll/

Don't get too excited. Trump only has .5 lead against Clinton head on and the margin of error is +/- 3.6. And that's with 11.3 unsure! Mindboggling. How can people be so fucking ignorant that they still can't make a decision? Ught.

MachineGhost wrote:Don't get too excited. Trump only has .5 lead against Clinton head on and the margin of error is +/- 3.6. And that's with 11.3 unsure! Mindboggling. How can people be so fucking ignorant that they still can't make a decision? Ught.

My guess is those who are unsure are really unsure about Trump, not Hillry who they've known for 35 years. They are sure that they don't like the evil witch.

New Wikileaks evidence on the left's attempt to oversample polling:

"----- Original Message ----- From: tmatzzie@gmail.com <tmatzzie@gmail.com> To: georgerakis@gmail.com <georgerakis@gmail.com>; Andy Meyer Sent: Thu Jan 10 21:21:07 2008 Subject: Meet and polling design Hey, when can we meet? I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling. -Tom"

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

There are four major polls now have that Trump winning: IBD, PPD, Rasmussen and LATimes. The media ignores them all despite at least 3 being among most accurate. Instead all I hear about is an ABC poll.

Simonjester wrote: Vegas and Europe's bet-makers are showing trump inching ahead for the first time as of just recently..

Given that PredictWise is still at 91% (which uses both polls and betting markets), there has to be a serious oversampling bias of Democrats in the polls going on for Trump to pull off a win. The undecideds/third parties are flunctuating back and forth vs Slick Hilly and not Trump who seems to have rock solid support but is not growing. At least based on these polls:



I say if you use only the IBD/TIPP poll, the betting markets and the regression equation, Trump is going to win. But it might happen via the House. That may be a bad thing as we really don't want all those liberal loonie lunatics getting even more enraged!

There seems to be a lot more than just Trump at stake here as a referendum... its the entire Crony-Elite-Government-Media-Establishment and whether you can trust it at all anymore. Even Elizabeth Warren is calling for the head of the head of the SEC to be chopped off.

"Just yesterday we wrote about the very curious ABC / Wapo poll which seemed to show Hillary's blow-out 12-point lead from last Sunday get cut in half in a matter of just two days. But the ABC/Wapo enigma continues to grow today as their latest poll shows the presidential race has now tightened to just 2 points, which is within the margin of error. Ironically, these new results do not reflect the latest FBI bombshell as polling was concluded on October 27th and it still includes an 8-point sampling advantage for democrats.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-2 ... s-2-points

I'm guessing that the last minute polls might show a blowout lead for Trump. The pollsters can only defend her for so long.

Including Spanish is gonna oversample it to Democrats unless they're calling Cubans in Florida.