Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Answers to many of these questions used to be listed in the full Cash FAQ on crawlingroad.com, but it seems like all of that material has been removed. The best way to get get the details on the Permanent Portfolio is probably by reading Craig and MediumTex's book.
https://www.amazon.com/Permanent-Portfo ... 1118288254
Additionally you should play with the backtester and calculators on Tyler's. Provides lots of good information.
http://www.portfoliocharts.com
https://www.amazon.com/Permanent-Portfo ... 1118288254
Additionally you should play with the backtester and calculators on Tyler's. Provides lots of good information.
http://www.portfoliocharts.com
Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
I didn't find a Cash FAQ, but did find pages tagged "cash". It wasn't much. But maybe somebody else can find more.
https://web.archive.org/web/20140425133 ... /tag/cash/
https://web.archive.org/web/20140425133 ... /tag/cash/
Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
I believe the Cash FAQ sticky thread on this forum has essentially the same contents as the Crawling Road blog post:
http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... p?f=4&t=17
http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/foru ... p?f=4&t=17
Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
There was a great discussion in another thread about the impact of the emergency fund on different portfolios.
Basically, a portfolio that excludes cash requires the investor to hold cash as an emergency fund. If you consider the e-fund to be part of the portfolio, then the portfolio does in fact include a large slice of cash. It's great that the PP incorporates the e-fund right into the asset allocation - a brilliant move on Harry Browne's part. It's also important to note that cash has not always been the lowest yielding asset. In years past, cash has sometimes been the biggest gainer, and as Harry Browne once noted, a portfolio of 100% T bills over the past 30 years would actually have produced a better CAGR than what most investors playing randomly with stocks manage to achieve. For that reason, he recommended that for people who can't cope with managing a PP.
If you have a retirement account with access to gold that you truly don't intend to touch for a long time, and you don't want to make it part of a spread-out PP that includes your taxable accounts, you could make a case for putting a 33x3 PP (excluding cash) in that account. Personally, I would simply include it as part of my PP, and use taxable accounts and US savings bonds to hold most of the cash.
Basically, a portfolio that excludes cash requires the investor to hold cash as an emergency fund. If you consider the e-fund to be part of the portfolio, then the portfolio does in fact include a large slice of cash. It's great that the PP incorporates the e-fund right into the asset allocation - a brilliant move on Harry Browne's part. It's also important to note that cash has not always been the lowest yielding asset. In years past, cash has sometimes been the biggest gainer, and as Harry Browne once noted, a portfolio of 100% T bills over the past 30 years would actually have produced a better CAGR than what most investors playing randomly with stocks manage to achieve. For that reason, he recommended that for people who can't cope with managing a PP.
If you have a retirement account with access to gold that you truly don't intend to touch for a long time, and you don't want to make it part of a spread-out PP that includes your taxable accounts, you could make a case for putting a 33x3 PP (excluding cash) in that account. Personally, I would simply include it as part of my PP, and use taxable accounts and US savings bonds to hold most of the cash.
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
The problem of using the cash part of the PP as an emergency fund is that it's too small when you start out and it can easily feel too big when you have a sizeable portfolio.
It's important to remember that when your portfolio starts to get bigger that you're holding three pretty volatile assets at all times. The cash part is needed to reduce the overall risk of the portfolio to acceptable levels.
Just because stocks, bonds and gold haven't crashed at the same time doesn't mean that won't happen in the future. Backtesting might make the PP seem more safe, more stable than it really is.
I consider the PP as a medium risk portfolio, and I'm comfortable with that, and I do feel the need to hold an emergency fund besides my PP.
It's important to remember that when your portfolio starts to get bigger that you're holding three pretty volatile assets at all times. The cash part is needed to reduce the overall risk of the portfolio to acceptable levels.
Just because stocks, bonds and gold haven't crashed at the same time doesn't mean that won't happen in the future. Backtesting might make the PP seem more safe, more stable than it really is.
I consider the PP as a medium risk portfolio, and I'm comfortable with that, and I do feel the need to hold an emergency fund besides my PP.
- dualstow
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Well, you don't have to consider the entire cash portion to be an emergency fund, even if the entire emergency fund is part of the cash share.koekebakker wrote:The problem of using the cash part of the PP as an emergency fund is that it's too small when you start out and it can easily feel too big when you have a sizeable portfolio.
Abd here you stand no taller than the grass sees
And should you really chase so hard /The truth of sport plays rings around you
And should you really chase so hard /The truth of sport plays rings around you
- buddtholomew
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
I am in the same category 4x25 + EFkoekebakker wrote:The problem of using the cash part of the PP as an emergency fund is that it's too small when you start out and it can easily feel too big when you have a sizeable portfolio.
It's important to remember that when your portfolio starts to get bigger that you're holding three pretty volatile assets at all times. The cash part is needed to reduce the overall risk of the portfolio to acceptable levels.
Just because stocks, bonds and gold haven't crashed at the same time doesn't mean that won't happen in the future. Backtesting might make the PP seem more safe, more stable than it really is.
I consider the PP as a medium risk portfolio, and I'm comfortable with that, and I do feel the need to hold an emergency fund besides my PP.
What is your allocation after accounting for the EF?
I try to make sure that the EF total stays stable so I am forced into allocating new capital to the PP. So easy for me to place new investable money in cash and end up too cash heavy.
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
I sort of do the same. I keep 3 months of living expenses outside my PP, that should cover the majority of emergencies. Anything above that goes into my PP.buddtholomew wrote:
I am in the same category 4x25 + EF
What is your allocation after accounting for the EF?
I try to make sure that the EF total stays stable so I am forced into allocating new capital to the PP. So easy for me to place new investable money in cash and end up too cash heavy.
My PP is 30-20-20-30 (S/G/B/C) so I'm already a bit cash heavy. I consider the cash and bond part of the PP as one asset class. I like this barbell approach as it gives me the opportunity to get a higher combined yield than if I'd put everything in intermediate bonds.
- dualstow
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Probably cash.Kbg wrote:What is C?
Abd here you stand no taller than the grass sees
And should you really chase so hard /The truth of sport plays rings around you
And should you really chase so hard /The truth of sport plays rings around you
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Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Cash, I was too lazy to type stocks/gold/bonds/cash.