Getting Started with Bonds

[Pointedstick]

Neither , but it does provide the cons so an informed decision can be made.

Informed decisions don't come from hiding from the negatives of something.

Especially for a newbee who only likely has one side of facts at this stage .

In your opinion, can a truly informed decision point someone in the direction of using the PP, or will it suggest going with something else?

[buddtholomew]

MG and PS joke about my experiences with the portfolio, yet neither of them invest in the HBPP 4x25 allocation. I would be substantially poorer if all I invested in was the PP. My 66/35 BH portfolio has made me a millionaire many times over. Good luck to the rest of you who believe the PP will lead you into retirement. Not a chance.

Go on...keep having your fun. Like MJ, I'm raking it in suckers. Oh and for the record, I didn't sell at a 2% loss, but rather arrived at the realization that those that I listened to and trusted were not who they turned out to be. They are actually more lost than anyone I know.

[Pointedstick]

MG and PS joke about my experiences with the portfolio, yet neither of them invest in the HBPP 4x25 allocation. I would be substantially poorer if all I invested in was the PP. My 66/35 BH portfolio has made me a millionaire many times over. Good luck to the rest of you who believe the PP will lead you into retirement. Not a chance.

Go on...keep having your fun. Like MJ, I'm raking it in suckers.

Can you explain what compels you to stick around and insult people for sticking with a plan that you have decided isn't for you?

[buddtholomew]

MG and PS joke about my experiences with the portfolio, yet neither of them invest in the HBPP 4x25 allocation. I would be substantially poorer if all I invested in was the PP. My 66/35 BH portfolio has made me a millionaire many times over. Good luck to the rest of you who believe the PP will lead you into retirement. Not a chance.

Go on...keep having your fun. Like MJ, I'm raking it in suckers.

Can you explain what compels you to stick around and insult people for sticking with a plan that you have decided isn't for you?

To rub it in your face for being so stupid. Don't be such a baby, you do your fair share of insulting as well. To prove that I'm right and your wrong. You were adamant that the PP was the saving grace. Just go back and look at your posts. Why do you stick around, you're not a PP investor either.

[MachineGhost]

MG and PS joke about my experiences with the portfolio, yet neither of them invest in the HBPP 4x25 allocation. I would be substantially poorer if all I invested in was the PP. My 66/35 BH portfolio has made me a millionaire many times over. Good luck to the rest of you who believe the PP will lead you into retirement. Not a chance.

Yes, but budd, I don't throw the baby out with the bathwater and then go invest in an undiversified Boglehead portfolio.  If there's one thing I've learned from the PP, it's that economic regime and inter-asset class diversification is essential to portfolio survival.  I just contest the portfolio weights and lack of downside risk management, but I do that for any portfolio.  And it is still questionable if any of that matters in the long run.

OTOH, I do think you might of had a mismatch of expectations vs reality.  The PP isn't a growth portfolio.  It's a wealth preservation portfolio and sometimes its not even good at that when there's a bubble in one asset at exclusion to all others, like right now.

So unless you can time the market, you'll eventually wind up with worse maximum drawdowns in a 66/35 Boglehead portfolio than the PP under the same conditions.  But I'm sure you realize this if the increased portfolio growth makes up for it...  no free lunch.

[Pointedstick]

To rub it in your face for being so stupid. Don't be such a baby, you do your fair share of insulting as well. To prove that I'm right and your wrong. You were adamant that the PP was the saving grace. Just go back and look at your posts. Why do you stick around, you're not a PP investor either.

I'm not a PP investor?

Regardless, even if I did abandon the PP (I have not) I would still stick around here because I like the other folks and enjoy discussing things with them. If you stick around purely to belittle and insult people who have made different decisions from the ones that you have made, you should examine your motivations for doing this and honestly evaluate whether you think it adds value to your life, and if, so, why.

[l82start]

i am tempted to be a bit irritated at the haters for jumping in and bashing the PP in a thread where a new investor is making an honest inquiry about investing and the PP system. it represents a level of incivility that this forum has not had in the past, we have always questioned the philosophy, the allocation and the economics... but in the past we have done so in the threads dedicated to that purpose, and have been helpful and given a good accounting of the basic beliefs/practices in the threads oriented towards learning the subject. 

SarahG i am sorry your thread has devolved into another PP bash session at the hands of a few, on the plus side it gives you an opportunity to apply your understanding of the 16 rules and the wealth protection philosophy to the posts and investments of those who question, you will likely find that they have chucked or violate many of them,  whether their reasons for doing so are compelling or not is a source of endless and entertaining (if sometimes mis-located) debate....

[koekebakker]

Well, we're in the middle of a bull market for stocks right now so the PP and it's followers are having a hard time. It's really quite silly to hear about conservative income strategy growth models all the time as if they are in any way comparable. When you invest in the PP you let go of any comparisons between the PP and the standard 50/50 or 60/40 portfolios.

It's even more silly to compare daily or weekly returns... The PP will have it's day again, probably when the markets and the forum gurus least expect it.

[koekebakker]

Oh, and Budd, just stop it man. You're better than that.

[mathjak107]

Neither , but it does provide the cons so an informed decision can be made.

Informed decisions don't come from hiding from the negatives of something.

Especially for a newbee who only likely has one side of facts at this stage .

In your opinion, can a truly informed decision point someone in
direction of using the PP, or will it suggest going with something else

If they got a pretty well rounded view then they can go  whatever way they see fit.

I always say when you can argue for or against something as convincingly then you know enough to decide what is for you

[Greg]

l82start, I love your tagline about the purgenol-free stuff! We need more of that type of food on this forum at times.

#purgenolfreeforlife
#RickandMortyisawesome

[ochotona]

Yes, SarahG, buy some bonds!

[Kbg]

So Sarah, read this. These guys are good folks. I totally agree with the last little snippet about gold. I guess you have to spend time in a war zone to appreciate his comment. The takeaway from my perspective...it's just fine to own GLD or another gold fund, lower holding costs and less hassle. Back to bonds...the post does a great job of demonstrating bond ups and downs. Normally they are negatively correlated with stocks, combine this with rebalancing and that's a good thing.

What nobody has posted on this thread is that in the very long haul all these various portfolios pretty much have ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME RETURNS. The yearly variations are almost entirely due to the macroeconomic climate of which some portfolios are better than others FOR THAT CLIMATE. But over the long haul this stuff has a way of evening out.

http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/11/ ... tes-spike/

[sophie]

We are in a situation where all four PP assets are beset with problems. Cash pays nothing. Long bonds, as stated above. Stocks are very richly valued. Gold... we don't know where gold is priced.

My 66/35 BH portfolio has made me a millionaire many times over.

The things I am learning about our fellow forum members!  Just to clarify, the above BH portfolio is stocks + bonds?  Meaning, two of the 4 abovementioned problematic PP assets?  (Yes I know...intermediate bonds not long ones - but that's a performance difference of degrees, not kind.)

Guys - might I respectfully suggest that you're getting just a bit carried away here?  And that the new forum member who started this thread was probably scared away a couple pages back?

Sarah I hope you are still reading.  There are some wonderful insights and constructive suggestions in these pages.  I highly recommend Harry Browne's books and radio show also, which you can find on the crawlingroad website. 

[buddtholomew]

These are the main flaws (things to consider) of the HB 4x25PP allocation as far as I am concerned.

One or more rising assets will overcome falling assets to produce a positive return.
There is an equal probability of prosperity, inflation, deflation and recession.
Money has to flow to one of the four assets.

If you can come to terms with the above, then perhaps the PP is for you. If not, consider selecting an allocation that better meets your temperament and long-term goals.

[mathjak107]

plus just because you have positive returns may not mean you ever meet goals if they are to weak . .  that can be true in any portfolio  as well. but it becomes even more an issue the more conservative you go . it is all about you and your own results .

it means little to anyone if the last 10 years average with a portfolio were okay but the biggest chunk of money wasn't in until the last 5 years and results were weak  so it all is based on only your own situation and your flow of money in or out . ,.

in my own case  i have been an investor since 1987 but had i missed the last 5 to 7 years run up by doing something else to conservative  when 2/3 of my assets were added between  2009 and 2012 then that would have been an enormous difference in outcomes ,.

what transpired from 2000 until today is very different for me since most of my money was added after 2009 .

so each situation is not going to agree with any chart or back test . it is only going to be unique to you and what others got really does not mean much to you . .

[SarahG]

Wow, I didn't realize I'd start such a lively discussion. Sorry for going silent, I got busy with work.

I'm reading through the replies with wide eyes. With the long weekend I hope to do some more reading and get a sense of my comfort level with bonds.

Thanks and Happy Thanksgiving to all!

SG

[mukramesh]

Wow, I didn't realize I'd start such a lively discussion. Sorry for going silent, I got busy with work.

I'm reading through the replies with wide eyes. With the long weekend I hope to do some more reading and get a sense of my comfort level with bonds.

Thanks and Happy Thanksgiving to all!

SG

This forum has gone sorta crazy since Mathjak arrived. I recommend reading the Permanent Portfolio FAQs on Crawling Road and perhaps buying the book. If you are convinced that the Permanent Portfolio will meet your investing needs, I'd say just go with it and not ask too many questions on this forum... I wouldn't try to modify the PP too much either; most people don't have the expertise to do that anyway.

Despite the constant arguing, please keep in mind that the majority of the people who check this forum actually hold a standard Permanent Portfolio and are quite happy/content, as per this recent poll.
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/pe ... ng-the-pp/

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

[mathjak107]

don't shoot me , i am only the messenger bringing facts . it is up to you all to research them and decide for yourself . hate to spoil the kool aid party and be the turd in the punch bowl  but  so far much of what i brought to the party has been stuff no one knew and from the e-mails i get from quite a few here it  has made them  research and question some things about the pp .. ..

[Jack Jones]

don't shoot me , i am only the messenger bringing facts . it is up to you all to research them and decide for yourself . hate to spoil the kool aid party and be the turd in the punch bowl  but  so far much of what i brought to the party has been stuff no one knew and from the e-mails i get from quite a few here it  has made them  research and question some things about the pp .. ..

How noble of you.

[l82start]

don't shoot me , i am only the messenger bringing facts . it is up to you all to research them and decide for yourself . hate to spoil the kool aid party and be the turd in the punch bowl  but  so far much of what i brought to the party has been stuff no one knew and from the e-mails i get from quite a few here it  has made them  research and question some things about the pp .. ..

  you are a guest on a forum and participating in a community that is centered around understanding and exploring the PP investment system and philosophy.. if you cannot discuss the finer details of investing, and still be  civil, and refrain from accusing the members of this forum of being koolaid drinkers. then you are welcome to leave... we are happy to listen to all types of criticism and critiques of the portfolio, there is a limit to our willingness to put up with insults, ad hominem attacks and continual thread jacking, you have reached it...

[mathjak107]

me be civil  ?  are you kidding ?  do you see the attacks i have to put up with ?  in fact you know what ?  i am done done here .

you can all continue to pat each other on the back , drink the kool aid and continue on believing your own bull shit as total fact and stay in ignorance about certain things .  this way you will never know where your facts are wrong or logic flawed .

prior to me being here i saw safe withdrawal rates being discussed and no one here even knew what the term represented and the fact the pp could not even be tested accurately  since it refers to a time frame the pp didn't and couldn't exist to be compared .

i am through posting on this forum  .  enjoy just knowing what you know and keep the blinders on .

[babysquirrel]

"i am through posting on this forum"

This is the best thing I've read on this forum in a while !! 

[MediumTex]

So did mathjak stay away?

His farewell address had a sort of Disney villain quality to it, which often means the stage is only being exited for a costume change.

mathjak had some good comments here and there, but the signal came with a lot of noise.

[l82start]

So did mathjak stay away?

His farewell address had a sort of Disney villain quality to it, which often means the stage is only being exited for a costume change.

mathjak had some good comments here and there, but the signal came with a lot of noise.

  it looks like he lurks.. but he has kept his promise/threat to never post again..

ditto on the signal to noise ratio, its a  shame because the signal was of interest to many of us...