Gyroscopic Investing

koekebakker wrote: Well, that's a different topic  .
They'll get converted to the new (or old) currencies.
It's hard to predict what will happen, interest rates between the former euro-countries could diverge greatly in such a crisis.
That risk seems pretty remote though. The Greek crisis clearly showed how far politicians are willing to go to protect the euro.
But even if the euro breaks up it doesn't have to mean massive defaults. It might even mean renewed optimism and better growth prospects.

MachineGhost wrote: Germany seemed pretty solid until Merkel adopted the open borders policy...

Cortopassi wrote: And again not positive for the year as every holding gets taken to the woodshed...

God, this whole Fed bullcrap is really old.

buddtholomew wrote: If equities don't end up in the green today I will shave my head.

mathjak107 wrote: so far the models i post every friday are nicely positive .  i will update my thread tomorrow as to any changes and the ending numbers . funds like fidelity contra and blue chip growth are up about 7- 8% ytd  as of last night .  intermediate term and short term bond funds are  still up 1 to 2 %

Cortopassi wrote: Whether intentional or not, you do realize your posts are very good at sticking it to people who follow the PP.

dualstow wrote:

buddtholomew wrote: If equities don't end up in the green today I will shave my head.

I'm getting there, too, but more about thinning hair than equities. 
I'm actually ok with the pp so far.

mathjak107 wrote: this has been a tough year for all assets .

Cortopassi wrote: Yep, thanks for the crossing fingers..but I've drunk the PP Koolaid and can't see the error of my ways...I've been blindly following the PP like a lemming...

Whether intentional or not, you do realize your posts are very good at sticking it to people who follow the PP.

Sure, the Contra is up 7%, blue chip is not up 7-8%, more like 1.xx%, but regardless, as it is, your assertion that stocks always pop back faster is holding pretty true right now, and has for the past 6 years.

I'm not particularly looking for it to end because 25% of my net worth is in broad stock market assets, but I tell you, if the latest market drop and the latest recovery on virtually no good economic news is not smoke and mirrors, I don't know what is.

Stocks go up when the Fed doesn't raise rates, because of more cheap money.  Stocks go up because the Fed might raise rates because the economy is doing better... it currently seems to be a no-lose, or only lose for a few weeks, situation for stocks. 

Will this end badly?  Probably.  In 3 weeks, 3 months or 3 years?  Well, that's the million dollar question. 

All I do know is that for me, all these discussions have gotten old.  I've got friends who've been predicting the end of the US for 6 years.  Others who are oblivious to it all.  I am somewhere in the middle.  Which is pretty much where the PP lives.

dualstow wrote: The ballpoint pen maker?

goodasgold wrote: Today is shaping up to be the WORST day I can ever remember for the PP. 

dragoncar wrote:

dualstow wrote: The ballpoint pen maker?

Well, they are a diversified compan?

Pointedstick wrote: Not only that, for the moment it's beating a 100% total stock market index portfolio and a conservative 55% bond Boglehead portfolio. All assets but stocks are once again positive YTD. Could turn around tomorrow, but it's at least a good reminder of how tough a year this has been for investments.

Pointedstick wrote: Exactly. The "working-age male" is basically an obsolete concept, a relic from the days when physical skills and a strong body were key parts of your employability. Those sorts of jobs are rapidly disappearing from advanced countries, either because they're being automated by machines, or outsourced to places with lower wages. Those jobs that remain tend not to be very well-paying, so people who work them will probably need substantial public assistance. I can't speak for Germany but this is the case in the USA. Another danger is that since such jobs will probably not be very intellectually enriching, new immigrants working them may start to feel bitter that the prosperity they expected is just a lie reserved for natives.

Immigration is just hard to get right. I'm a member of a multinational, immigrant-heavy team at work and pretty much the only reason it functions is because the non-Americans are nearly all (regardless of ethnic background) Western Europeans or Canadians who have been carefully selected for their high skill and cultural compatibility. All very elite, high skill people with perfect English. The few non-Europeans substantially grew up or were educated in Europe or the USA, so again there's that cultural similarity that's so crucial. They like the USA and do not feel like they've given up anything to work here; they can (and sometimes do) leave to go back home. If we were to have instead taken a bunch of low-skill people with shaky or non-existent English, no prior personal immersion in Western culture, and no home to go back to because it was a war zone, it would be a catastrophe.