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Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:31 am
by Libertarian666
MachineGhost wrote:
dutchtraffic wrote: Ah i guess "this time it's different"  ;D
Changing of the reserve currency != "collapse". ::)  Did Great Britain collapse?  It's still going strong last I looked.  And in the past, nations were not currency issuers as the major ones are today; not being one which is largely a reason why they did run into serious trouble with their dual silver and gold forms of money.  There was no relief valve for labor and wage injustices.

As far as the new form of money, it won't be gold or other austerity-imposing relics from the past.  Been there, done that.  We use debt as money now not commodities.  It'll be the IMF's SDR or something supranational like that.  You have to put what's coming in context.  Countries and governments will be crying out to negotiate a New World Order without the USD being the world's reserve currency because they stupidly issued trillions in USD-denominated sovereign debt at near zero percent interest rates.  Currency pegs never work.  The rest of the world is going to blow up and the USD will stay the least unscathed, just by virture of its special position.
I'm afraid you and all the other paper money advocates are going to be very surprised at what happens when the USD loses its reserve status.

The very few people who understand economics are the only ones who won't be surprised.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:19 am
by Libertarian666
Desert wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
Desert wrote: Please don't say China.
Hardly. It's a shiny metallic element.
Oh that's right, you're expecting a return to a gold-based currency.  I expect we'd need to have a global economic catastrophe the likes of which we haven't seen in recent centuries, to drive a return to gold-based money...
Yes, just like the other times that the reserve currency changed. For some reason, the new reserve currency has ALWAYS been a name for a weight of gold. I wonder why that is?

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:19 am
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: I'm afraid you and all the other paper money advocates are going to be very surprised at what happens when the USD loses its reserve status.

The very few people who understand economics are the only ones who won't be surprised.
I'd say very few people understand only one branch of economics because there is empirically-proven truth in all branches of economics and not a single one has a monopoly on the truth.  All have flaws.  So if you were surprised by the last 7 years not playing out as your branch predicted, I suggest broadening your perspective.

P.S. Money is whatever it needs to be, cowshit, seashells, precious metals, toilet paper, fiat, it simply does not matter what the form is.  Money is money.  It will flunctuate in value either way as emotional demands drive hither and tither.  Stability is a complete myth.  If you can't grok that, then you're just ignorant of the facts of history and an ideologue.  Harsh, I know.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:22 am
by MachineGhost
Desert wrote: Oh that's right, you're expecting a return to a gold-based currency.  I expect we'd need to have a global economic catastrophe the likes of which we haven't seen in recent centuries, to drive a return to gold-based money...
And still be standing because it won't have any use otherwise.  Hence, why you need to diversify into Charmin Sensitive and Ivory Soap and Smirnoff and... ;)

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:25 am
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: Yes, just like the other times that the reserve currency changed. For some reason, the new reserve currency has ALWAYS been a name for a weight of gold. I wonder why that is?
Could it be because we didn't go off the gold as money fetish until as recently as, say, 1971?  Before that was a very long period of tradition that governments liked to exploit.

Have you ever calculated how much real wealth you would have lost out on with your current portfolio if you had implemented in 1971?  The results may shock you.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:26 am
by Libertarian666
MachineGhost wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: I'm afraid you and all the other paper money advocates are going to be very surprised at what happens when the USD loses its reserve status.

The very few people who understand economics are the only ones who won't be surprised.
I'd say very few people understand only one branch of economics because there is empirically-proven truth in all branches of economics and not a single one has a monopoly on the truth.  All have flaws.  So if you were surprised by the last 7 years not playing out as your branch predicted, I suggest broadening your perspective.

P.S. Money is whatever it needs to be, cowshit, seashells, precious metals, toilet paper, fiat, it simply does not matter what the form is.  Money is money.  It will flunctuate in value either way as emotional demands drive hither and tither.  Stability is a complete myth.  If you can't grok that, then you're just ignorant of the facts of history and an ideologue.  Harsh, I know.
Economics is not a quantitative science, so there is no such thing as a precise economic forecast.

As for money, of course it will fluctuate in value. There is no such thing as stability of value, because value is subjective; this is also why economics cannot ever be a quantitative science.

But if you can't see the economic difference between something that can be created out of thin air (paper "money") or created in enormous abundance (toilet paper) and something that is in limited supply (gold), then you are the one who is ignorant of the facts of history.

Those facts show that for anything to retain its usefulness as money, people must believe that its supply is limited. There are no exceptions to this rule, which is why the Federal Reserve must continue its charade of saying "we're going to stop printing unlimited amounts of money real soon now...".

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:30 am
by Libertarian666
MachineGhost wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: Yes, just like the other times that the reserve currency changed. For some reason, the new reserve currency has ALWAYS been a name for a weight of gold. I wonder why that is?
Could it be because we didn't go off the gold as money fetish until as recently as, say, 1971?  That's a very long period of tradition that governments liked to exploit.
Governments have tried to water down their money much earlier than 1971. It has never worked in the long run, and can never work in the long run.

The only thing that will make gold cease to be money is if its supply can be expanded so much that it loses its usefulness as money. Either cheap transmutation or a gigantic asteroid find could do that, but I doubt it will happen in the lifetime of anyone now living.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:48 am
by Pointedstick
I recall a humorous discussion with Kshartle once in which he was attempting to prove that "poop in a jar" could not be money because anyone can poop and acquire jars therefore the jars of poop would have no value and there would be rampant hyperinflation that destroyed the "currency." I seem to remember someone making the point that it might not be a great currency, but if some really weird group of people decided to exchange jars full of poop to conduct trade, well, they'd have the weirdest currency ever, but the PoopInAJar would indeed be their money.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:51 am
by Libertarian666
Pointedstick wrote: I recall a humorous discussion with Kshartle once in which he was attempting to prove that "poop in a jar" could not be money because anyone can poop and acquire jars therefore the jars of poop would have no value and there would be rampant hyperinflation that destroyed the "currency." I seem to remember someone making the point that it might not be a great currency, but if some really weird group of people decided to exchange jars full of poop to conduct trade, well, they'd have the weirdest currency ever, but the PoopInAJar would indeed be their money.
And if the Pope were Jewish, he would wear a yarmulke.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:12 pm
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: As for money, of course it will fluctuate in value. There is no such thing as stability of value, because value is subjective; this is also why economics cannot ever be a quantitative science.
Well, tickle me silly!  I would have sworn you thought gold was 100% stable in value, hence your fetish for it.
But if you can't see the economic difference between something that can be created out of thin air (paper "money") or created in enormous abundance (toilet paper) and something that is in limited supply (gold), then you are the one who is ignorant of the facts of history.
I do see the difference in terms of what makes gold a relatively better medium of exchange due to its durability properties, but you give off the impression that only gold has ever been a form of money and is the only form of money that ever will be.  Both are historically false.  Money is whatever people have confidence in.  Thus it is so.  Its a free market thing.  Governments can certainly help in the regard but its just technically exploitation.  Bitcoins could become the next dominant form of money because markets don't care about what form money is, only that it keeps short-term value for transanctional purposes.  Money is not an asset because it always loses its value over time (government is not necessary to help that along).
Those facts show that for anything to retain its usefulness as money, people must believe that its supply is limited. There are no exceptions to this rule, which is why the Federal Reserve must continue its charade of saying "we're going to stop printing unlimited amounts of money real soon now...".
Ahha, this is where you haven't adapted yet.  We don't operate under a fixed-exchange rate system ("gold standard") anymore where a limited supply of physical commodities was implicit to prevent inflation.  That's called the Philips Curve where real wages rising (i.e. in gold) is inflationary.  That no longer holds true under a floating exchange rate system that we've been under since 1968-1971.  Also, inflation rose and fell quite extensively under the "gold standard" as new discoveries were made or not made to the money supply, so it wasn't always due to government borrowing and spending unproductively in excess of its tax revenues.  And the other side of the coin (pun intended) is the deflationary chokehold that you can't get out from under without the ability to increase the money supply and/or liquidity when a economy in crisis demands it.  A physical commodity being used such as gold constrains that.  To be honest, that was really the driving impetus for abandoning the fixed exchange rate system.  England was to first to jettison the "gold standard" during the Great Depression and not coincidentially, they were first to have an economic recovery.  Those who stubbornly held on were like Greece today.

So if you want to make an argument that people will turn to gold and silver coins as a temporarily replacement for money when they lose confidence in their existing money, no argument from me and that's why I hold it in the PP.  But, as a civilization we're just not going back to an austerity-implicit, resource-constrained, defaults-galore, free wildcat banking financial monetary system ever again.  It simply doesn't work to deal with economic crisises and its also too politically risky in terms of risk invoking revolution and insurrection from pissed off, impoverished people, slaving under deflationary austerity.  We like a growing economy and a little inflation just for behavorial reasons.  The EU is instructive in this example of what not to do.

Also, I get the impression you may think the Federal Reserve creates all the money used in our economy.  That's not the case.  They're only concerned with keeping the member bank clearinghouse operating smoothly and providing liquidity to member banks that run into difficulties.  There's no transmission mechanism between the Fed creating internal bookkeeping "bank reserve" entries that is then forcibly swapped for physical Treasuries from its member banks, out to the real economy.  No, the real money creation is in the free market and is orders of a magnitude larger than the so-called "money printing" of the Fed (or Treasury in case of actual FRNs and coins).  Since debt (i.e. FRNs, coins, Treasuries) is used as money now, an extension of credit or a loan anywhere in the economy also creates an increased money supply.  The only transmission the government has with the real economy is in providing the private sector with "savings vehicles" under guise of Treasuries when it borrows to spend more than it has coming in from tax revenues.  So you can even say that it is actually the free market that drives the continuing need for a deficit. 

We don't have to agree with the above operational reality on an ideological basis.  I actually would prefer something more just and efficient along the lines of Riegel's Valun system where private credit is only created on demand as needed, but the current hodge podge system isn't that far off, except far too many people believe the Fed is The Wizard of Oz and that somehow fiat money is innately dangerous.  Fiat money has existed long, long before gold was used as money and always will.  That's not the real problem.  The real problem is the unconstrained growth in debt by economic ignoramuses.  So long as it doesn't go grow past the demand for "saving vehicles", all is well.  We're a long ways off from that point and Japan is our canary in the coal mine.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:59 pm
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: The only thing that will make gold cease to be money is if its supply can be expanded so much that it loses its usefulness as money. Either cheap transmutation or a gigantic asteroid find could do that, but I doubt it will happen in the lifetime of anyone now living.
Gold is no longer money, it is just another asset.  You do understand at least this delineation in the current real world, right?  You cannot be in the PP if gold was literally money because there wouldn't be a difference between cash and gold as there wasn't before 1968-1971.

I suspect now that ultimately you just don't agree with using debt as money.  That's fine, but that's not the evolved world we live in.  And if you want to eliminate all income taxes which is another anarchronistic relic of barter/commodity being used as money, you can't bring it back and expect the government not to try and tax it again.  Gold as money doesn't keep governments in check.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:44 pm
by Libertarian666
MachineGhost wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: The only thing that will make gold cease to be money is if its supply can be expanded so much that it loses its usefulness as money. Either cheap transmutation or a gigantic asteroid find could do that, but I doubt it will happen in the lifetime of anyone now living.
Gold is no longer money, it is just another asset.  You do understand at least this delineation in the current real world, right?  You cannot be in would not need gold in the PP if gold was literally money because there wouldn't be a difference between cash and gold as there wasn't before 1968-1971.

I suspect now that ultimately you just don't agree with using debt as money.  That's fine, but that's not the evolved world we live in.  And if you want to eliminate all income taxes which is another anarchronistic relic of barter/commodity being used as money, you can't bring it back and expect the government not to try and tax it again.  Gold as money doesn't keep governments in check.
FIFY.

If gold is not money, then why do all the central banks hold it? They don't hold tin, or silver, or lumber.
The reason, of course, is as Alan Greenspan explained: "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted." (from http://taxfreegold.co.uk/greenspan.html)

BTW, I don't expect governments to return to an honest monetary system until the next time that the fiat money system blows up, and of course timing is always very difficult, so I don't know when that will happen.

And as far as getting rid of income taxes, that is fine with me.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:16 pm
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: If gold is not money, then why do all the central banks hold it? They don't hold tin, or silver, or lumber.
The reason, of course, is as Alan Greenspan explained: "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted." (from http://taxfreegold.co.uk/greenspan.html)

BTW, I don't expect governments to return to an honest monetary system until the next time that the fiat money system blows up, and of course timing is always very difficult, so I don't know when that will happen.

And as far as getting rid of income taxes, that is fine with me.
I don't consider Greenspan to have any credibility about anything or a clue about anything, so that quote just makes me roll my eyes.  He certainly didn't practice what he preached.

They hold it because of tradition and cultural baggage, not that it is being used in central banking to clear transactions as it once was under the "gold standard".  There's still tons of Brilliant Uncirculated St. Gauden's out there because all most did was sit in central bank vaults collecting dust as reserves while the accounting books of all the banks were adjusted, except when Wells Fargo needed to transport said gold to another out of region bank in massive make-work pointlessness.  Does that sound like a real practical form of money to you???  Instead of useless gold coins sitting around like that now, we have the Federal Reserve  System.  Much superior on a number of levels.

There's no such thing a honest money system when a government is involved.  Never has been, never will be.  Instead of focusing on gold & silver as money which doesn't do jack shit to restrain government (been there done that many many many times and all were failures), look at other avenues such as restraining government borrowing to a fixed percent of the GDP.

Again, it's not fiat money, its the debt.  You can have fiat money without it being debt.  It's not a problem, otherwise we'd still be in the Stone Age.  Fiat money is how risk gets transferred and what makes our civilization modern.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:20 pm
by dutchtraffic
MachineGhost wrote: They hold it because of tradition and cultural baggage
There is so much wrong in your post that i cannot even be bothered replying to all of it, but if you really believe that it's 'tradition' (Bernanke's words) then you watch too much CNBC...let's keep it at that.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:37 pm
by MachineGhost
dutchtraffic wrote: There is so much wrong in your post that i cannot even be bothered replying to all of it, but if you really believe that it's 'tradition' (Bernanke's words) then you watch too much CNBC...let's keep it at that.
I understand.  That's why you're a gold bug doom porner and I'm not.  But since I used to be one, I have a soft spot for you guys.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:13 pm
by Libertarian666
dutchtraffic wrote:
MachineGhost wrote: They hold it because of tradition and cultural baggage
There is so much wrong in your post that i cannot even be bothered replying to all of it, but if you really believe that it's 'tradition' (Bernanke's words) then you watch too much CNBC...let's keep it at that.
Is there such a thing as not enough CNBC?  :P
Of course you are right, but there's not much common ground to discuss this with people who have "new ideas" about money (that are actually as old as the hills)...

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:52 am
by MachineGhost
Libertarian666 wrote: Is there such a thing as not enough CNBC?  :P
Of course you are right, but there's not much common ground to discuss this with people who have "new ideas" about money (that are actually as old as the hills)...
All anyone has to do is first recognize that money has changed in form from being gold to debt in 1971.  All else flows from there.  It's not about whether such an idea is old, new, ancient or vanguard, but recognizing actual operating reality instead of believing in false visions of utopian ideology.  Yes, I know, this is very hard to do because reality is cold, mean, messy, depressing and unseductive.  But it is what it is.  Your choice.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:54 am
by MachineGhost
Pointedstick wrote: I recall a humorous discussion with Kshartle once in which he was attempting to prove that "poop in a jar" could not be money because anyone can poop and acquire jars therefore the jars of poop would have no value and there would be rampant hyperinflation that destroyed the "currency." I seem to remember someone making the point that it might not be a great currency, but if some really weird group of people decided to exchange jars full of poop to conduct trade, well, they'd have the weirdest currency ever, but the PoopInAJar would indeed be their money.
For each 12 pounds you weigh, you poop out 1 ounce.  Is that more than all the gold mined each year, you reckon?

Considering fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is the next big thing, I'd say healthy poop literally is more valuable than gold.

The thing that makes money valuable is that it has no long-term value.  It's just a temporary transactional medium of exchange.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  Money != Asset.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:39 am
by Libertarian666
MachineGhost wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: I recall a humorous discussion with Kshartle once in which he was attempting to prove that "poop in a jar" could not be money because anyone can poop and acquire jars therefore the jars of poop would have no value and there would be rampant hyperinflation that destroyed the "currency." I seem to remember someone making the point that it might not be a great currency, but if some really weird group of people decided to exchange jars full of poop to conduct trade, well, they'd have the weirdest currency ever, but the PoopInAJar would indeed be their money.
For each 12 pounds you weigh, you poop out 1 ounce.  Is that more than all the gold mined each year, you reckon?

Considering fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is the next big thing, I'd say healthy poop literally is more valuable than gold.

The thing that makes money valuable is that it has no long-term value.  It's just a temporary transactional medium of exchange.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  Money != Asset.
You have an interesting definition there.
Have a nice millennium.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Sat Jan 02, 2016 5:10 am
by aeon
Seems the thread has taken a rather different direction lately, but I think the original question is very interesting, especially for us non-US members. I'm from a european country outside the eurozone, so the EUR-PP doesn't really do it for me(and I'd say it’s reasonable to question how well the PP:s logic will work inside the context of the Euro). Because of this I’ve turned my gaze towards global portfolios. I’m comfortable with a bit more volatility and a little less gold and thus I’ve opted for 40/40/20 stocks/bonds/gold. Stocks and gold pose no issues, but what bonds to buy is less clear-cut. I think LazyInvestor identified the main issue with SAAA:
LazyInvestor wrote: Just checked this ETF is only 50 million in AUM. I've read somewhere one should ideally avoid any ETF with anything less than 1 billion in AUM.
Currently 20 % of my portfolio is in VGIT with the other 20 in BNDX(vanguard international total bond), so there’s corporates, municipals and agencies in there too. I recently found out about BWX(SPDR international treasury bond), which is treasury only, but includes everything Aaa-Baa, including some EM debt. Still, it’s government debt, so it might be a better choice. I’ve already given up on PP-like stability anyways.

Re: The Global PP

Posted: Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:13 am
by Hal
Vaguely remember an article recommending 50/50 split between a Hard Currency Fund and a International Share ETF

http://www.merkfunds.com/fund/mhcf/      (approx 20% Gold, 80% currencies)

Giving a total of 50% Shares, 40% Currencies, 10% Gold


This site gives an interesting discussion on replacing bonds with cash

http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com. ... short.html


Essentially, both the standard PP and the 50/50 split has 1/2 in savings (gold/cash) and 1/2 in investments (shares and/or bonds )
Would this make any sense as a Quasi International PP ?