WiseOne wrote:
However, I find it to be too much of a coincidence that the rise in global average temperatures correlates perfectly with greenhouse gas production. And the science has been vetted more thoroughly than just about any other field, so it's kind of hard to imagine that it's all a big mistake.
That's my initial impression too, but.... correlation is not causation and consensus is not evidence. I am wary if only from being bamboozled many times over by "the madness of crowds".
It would really be neat it there was definitive anthropomorphological evidence without controversy from those with an agenda to grind or profit from. Hopefully moda will be able to provide the smoking gun.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
WiseOne wrote:
However, I find it to be too much of a coincidence that the rise in global average temperatures correlates perfectly with greenhouse gas production. And the science has been vetted more thoroughly than just about any other field, so it's kind of hard to imagine that it's all a big mistake.
That's my initial impression too, but.... correlation is not causation and consensus is not evidence. I am wary if only from being bamboozled many times over by "the madness of crowds".
It would really be neat it there was definitive anthropomorphological evidence without controversy from those with an agenda to grind or profit from. Hopefully moda will be able to provide the smoking gun.
We are already being bamboozled by crowds. It's called "externalities."
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."
WiseOne wrote:
True, if you set up some framework for people to sue companies that pollute their personal slice of air, water, or land (e.g. all those oil spill fiascos), that would be far preferable than a top-down "solution". Making one of those "owners" the government is a neat twist. Unfortunately, the average Joe has no chance against, say, BP Amoco...our justice system unfortunately boils down to who can buy the most expensive lawyers.
Isn't that yet another indictment against the government?
Okay, okay, I'll shut up now.
How so? The courts provide the backdrop, but the private sector is where all the manipulating happens.
WiseOne wrote:
However, I find it to be too much of a coincidence that the rise in global average temperatures correlates perfectly with greenhouse gas production.
Like cholesterol and heart disease? You do believe the cholesterol theory of heart disease right?
It was good being the party of Robin Hood. Until they morphed into the Sheriff of Nottingham
Pretty funny, but taking a stance on "pyramid power" when there's no scientific evidence either way seems premature. And they've mischaracterized what "body earthing" actually is. Memetics seems to ignore the fact that volition is required for any "meme reproduction", unlike actual viruses, bacteria or genetic reproduction.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Is this the referenced lack of any increase in the past 15 years? Does this slowdown or decrease correlate to reduced anthropomorphic CO2 emissions?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
WiseOne wrote:
However, I find it to be too much of a coincidence that the rise in global average temperatures correlates perfectly with greenhouse gas production.
Like cholesterol and heart disease? You do believe the cholesterol theory of heart disease right?
To claim global warming stopped in 1998 overlooks one simple physical reality - the land and atmosphere are just a small fraction of the Earth's climate (albeit the part we inhabit). The entire planet is accumulating heat due to an energy imbalance. The atmosphere is warming. Oceans are accumulating energy. Land absorbs energy and ice absorbs heat to melt. To get the full picture on global warming, you need to view the Earth's entire heat content.
This analysis is performed in An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 (Murphy 2009) which adds up heat content from the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice. To calculate the Earth's total heat content, the authors used data of ocean heat content from the upper 700 metres. They included heat content from deeper waters down to 3000 metres depth. They computed atmospheric heat content using the surface temperature record and the heat capacity of the troposphere. Land and ice heat content (the energy required to melt ice) were also included.
Nice graph. So, what is the problem, other than we can all go swimming in a bit warmer water now vs. the past?
Looks to me like the establishement of the EPA worsened the problem (if there is one). A definite correlation - more regulation, hotter ocean
Born in the wake of elevated concern about environmental pollution, EPA was established on December 2, 1970 to consolidate in one agency a variety of federal research, monitoring, standard-setting and enforcement activities to ensure environmental protection.
... Mountaineer
“For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”
Romans 6:23
doodle wrote:
This analysis is performed in An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 (Murphy 2009) which adds up heat content from the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice. To calculate the Earth's total heat content,
So to defend one model which does not appear to correspond to reality, someone came up with another model. Brilliant.
Models don't represent reality. If they are good they can behave in useful ways, but you have to prove that first.
I had a teacher in engineering school who did and elaborate 3 page derivation and came up with 2=3 and we had to show where he went wrong. Here anyone who tries is dismissed as a "denier".
Last edited by Benko on Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It was good being the party of Robin Hood. Until they morphed into the Sheriff of Nottingham
Awe shucks, I was going to go for some good Swamp People watching!
While I'm responding to your insightful, science based comment, I do have a couple more observations about your most recent graph:
1. Since an "anomaly" is plotted (i.e. the zero on the Y axis starting point) there is no way to determine the change vs. the absolute heat content. That means the graph may be much more or much less dramatic that way ... Are the ups and downs really huge, or a mere bump on a very tall segment of data? In my engineering class, we accused people who plotted data like that completely non-objective cherry pickers.
2. It seems I may have overlooked another direct correlation with the data shown on the graph. It appeared increase "anomaly" tracks very well with moon landings and number of satelites in orbit. Could that be a monumental problem for alarmists to get all reved up about ........... Or, do you think it may be due to increased obesity of United States males (another correlation).
... Mountaineer
“For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”
Romans 6:23
Mountaineer wrote:
It appeared increase "anomaly" tracks very well with moon landings and number of satelites in orbit. Could that be a monumental problem for alarmists to get all reved up about ........... Or, do you think it may be due to increased obesity of United States males (another correlation).
... Mountaineer
In one of his books Harry Browne used a graph to prove that people going to the movies causes inflation. So we don't even need to bother discussing the money supply, QE, velocity of money, productivity etc.
Excellent site! That's exactly what I was looking for.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Kshartle wrote:
In one of his books Harry Browne used a graph to prove that people going to the movies causes inflation. So we don't even need to bother discussing the money supply, QE, velocity of money, productivity etc.
That's not such a stretch. Anything going up at a 45 degree angle will have a high correlation with anything else going up at a 45 degree angle. That includes S&P500 vs M2 or S&P500 vs # of Tasmanian Devils Mating. Hence, correlation is not causation.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Awe shucks, I was going to go for some good Swamp People watching!
While I'm responding to your insightful, science based comment, I do have a couple more observations about your most recent graph:
1. Since an "anomaly" is plotted (i.e. the zero on the Y axis starting point) there is no way to determine the change vs. the absolute heat content. That means the graph may be much more or much less dramatic that way ... Are the ups and downs really huge, or a mere bump on a very tall segment of data? In my engineering class, we accused people who plotted data like that completely non-objective cherry pickers.
2. It seems I may have overlooked another direct correlation with the data shown on the graph. It appeared increase "anomaly" tracks very well with moon landings and number of satelites in orbit. Could that be a monumental problem for alarmists to get all reved up about ........... Or, do you think it may be due to increased obesity of United States males (another correlation).
... Mountaineer
Kshartle wrote:
Mountaineer wrote:
It appeared increase "anomaly" tracks very well with moon landings and number of satelites in orbit. Could that be a monumental problem for alarmists to get all reved up about ........... Or, do you think it may be due to increased obesity of United States males (another correlation).
... Mountaineer
In one of his books Harry Browne used a graph to prove that people going to the movies causes inflation. So we don't even need to bother discussing the money supply, QE, velocity of money, productivity etc.
Not the same. Warming is caused by an energy imbalance. There are only so many factors that can cause this to happen. Those proposed by deniers (sun activity / orbital shifts / volcanic activity) have not been observed. What is causing the warming? Any proposals?
The greenhouse effect is not a hypothesis....it has been verifiable laboratory tested science for more than a century.
There is also the question of whether warming has been gradual because carbon sinks like the ocean and heat sinks like the polar ice caps have buffered things. Ocean PH levels have been dropping due intake of large amounts of CO2 every year and artic ice has been on a very steady decline.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
doodle wrote:
Warming is caused by an energy imbalance. There are only so many factors that can cause this to happen. Those proposed by deniers (sun activity / orbital shifts / volcanic activity) have not been observed. What is causing the warming? Any proposals?
God. The sun. Unknown energy fields. Alien death rays. Randomness of the universe. Hot air from DC. Twisted knickers. Snake oil. Zombies. Radioactivtivity in the earth core. Increased insect population. Huge coal deposits under the ocean that are self-combusting. You pick it .... I am alway fascinated my man thinking he knows everything and can be in control ... from time immemorial as far as we can tell.
Enjoy the ride - I hope you find peace and comfort in your quest to avert disaster. I'm going to go watch Artic Swamp People now (jk).
... Mountaineer
“For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”
Romans 6:23
Mountaineer, you crack me up. When you propose "God" as causing the energy imbalance Im not sure whether you are being facetious or not.
The evidence, the facts, the science, and the reality are clear: The Earth is warming up, the climate is changing, it’s happening faster now than it has for thousands of years, and we’re the reason behind it.
The effects and magnitude of this change are still unclear and deserve more study.....but as far as Im concerned the scientific evidence for the existence of man made global warming is convincing enough.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
doodle wrote:
Mountaineer, you crack me up. When you propose "God" as causing the energy imbalance Im not sure whether you are being facetious or not.
The evidence, the facts, the science, and the reality are clear: The Earth is warming up, the climate is changing, it’s happening faster now than it has for thousands of years, and we’re the reason behind it.
The effects and magnitude of this change are still unclear and deserve more study.....but as far as Im concerned the scientific evidence for the existence of man made global warming is convincing enough.
Seriously, I am glad you find comfort and satisfaction in the "convincing evidence" of man made global warming. I find comfort and satisfaction in knowing that God is completely in charge. The only reason I threw "God" into the mix was to try to point out to you that your "certainty" appears to be just as clear to you as my certainty in Christianity is to me. To me, it really just does not matter if the earth is warming, cooling or is at status quo. There is little I can do about it other than to be a good steward of God's creation while I'm here. I prefer to focus on things that are of ultimate importance; for me that is knowing on the "Last Day" I am saved from the real "universal and catestrophic warming" that will happen for many ... forever and ever ... and to focus on being a good neighbor to those around me while I'm on this earth.
If you wish to crusade for placing a carbon tax on all of us "carbon based lifeforms" go for it. Have fun convincing the Chinese and Indians that they need to cripple their emerging lifestyle to make you feel good. This is somewhat off topic, but this whole "feel good" about stopping global warming/cooling/climate change smacks loudly of all those who "felt good" about electing a completely "non-experienced on running anything" goof ball in the white house whose ideology seems focused on tearing down rather than building up. Just look at the divisions that exist now versus several years ago; the chasms are growing to the point I will not be surprised if a revolution happens before I die, or at least before my children die. This climate change thing is just one more example of a "program" to divide us all even further.
... Mountaineer
“For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”
Romans 6:23
the chasms are growing to the point I will not be surprised if a revolution happens before I die, or at least before my children die.
Things aren't quite so bad in my neck of the woods. The only chasm in this country from my perspective is a long term growing divide between the haves and have nots that is a systemic problem related to capitalism....not the ideologies of any political party.
Seriously, I am glad you find comfort and satisfaction in the "convincing evidence" of man made global warming. I find comfort and satisfaction in knowing that God is completely in charge. The only reason I threw "God" into the mix was to try to point out to you that your "certainty" appears to be just as clear to you as my certainty in Christianity is to me.
I am not looking for comfort or satisfaction. Im just looking at the evidence. When that changes....so will my conclusions based upon it. I don't have any preconceived notions of what reality is and Im open to legitimate scrutiny....unlike most religions.
While the science of anthropogenic global warming is highly convincing, the questions about what the magnitude of the effects will be and whether on the whole they will be positive or negative hasn't been clarified enough by the scientific community for me. I don't think they understand the effects neccesarily either.....except that they are saying that change is usually always difficult.
All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. - Blaise Pascal
The point: Whatever we are alarmed about today will change, there will be a new cause for alarm as soon as this one drops in importance. The media must have something new to keep the masses engaged!
... Mountaineer
“For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”
Romans 6:23
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